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U.S. Treasury yields fall after weak Challenger jobs data
11/6/2025, 7:45:00 PM
Economic Summary
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 153,000 announced layoffs in October — labeled the worst October in 22 years — but January (172,000) and February (275,000) were higher, so announcements may overstate trend and not all will materialize.
- Bond-market reaction: 2s and 10s drifted significantly lower after the layoffs release; the 10-year yield has moved back to the prior top-of-range (~4.05–4.10%), and markets are weighing whether yields will fall under 4% or move toward ~4.25%.
Bullish
- January and February had higher announced layoffs, so October may not indicate a worsening trend.
- Yields have returned to prior top-of-range (~4.05–4.10%), with potential to move back up toward 4.25%.
Bearish
- 153,000 announced layoffs in October (worst October in 22 years) could signal labor-market weakness.
- 10-year Treasury yield could revisit under 4%, implying slowing growth and disinflationary pressure.
Bearish tickers
CHALLENGER GRAY & CHRISTMAS
CHALLENGER GRAY & CHRISTMAS
Bullish
Earlier months (Jan 172k, Feb 275k) were higher and announcements may not translate into actual layoffs, lessening long-term concern.
Bearish
October announcement of 153,000 layoffs (worst October in 22 years) could presage labor-market weakness and market volatility.
People mentioned
Rick SantelliSullyBrian