CNBC Television
Watch CNBC's full interview with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee
11/6/2025, 2:24:29 PM
Economic Summary
- The Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicator, combining 11 private sources to substitute missing government data during the shutdown, estimates the unemployment rate around 4.36% in October with a higher probability of being unchanged or slightly up.
- Most real‑time private indicators and the Chicago Fed series show stability: low hiring, low firing, low layoff rates and steady vacancy rates, consistent with a labor market that is cooling mildly but not collapsing.
- Total payroll job creation looked weaker in some series (e.g., ADP showed ~42,000), but those payroll measures can be confounded by immigration and population growth changes, so they warrant caution before over‑interpreting.
- Inflation monitoring is impaired by the shutdown: private price data skew toward goods, while official measures of services inflation were trending concerningly high (three‑month core services near ~4% annualized) just before data went dark.
- There is an asymmetry in available information: private indicators reveal labor market deterioration more quickly than they reveal inflation deterioration, making front‑loaded rate cuts riskier without reliable inflation data.
Bullish
- Chicago Fed labor market indicator shows unemployment roughly unchanged at about 4.36%.
- Layoff and vacancy rates remain very low, indicating resilience in the labor market.
- GDP and consumer spending readings have been strong, supporting demand and jobs stability.
- Medium-run expectation that the equilibrium interest rate is below current levels, suggesting eventual easing.
Bearish
- Three-month core services inflation running near 4% risks persistent inflation that could keep policy tighter.
- Government shutdown hides official inflation data, delaying detection of inflationary deterioration.
- Payroll job creation weakness and low hiring could signal mild cooling or a downturn if sustained.
- Tariff uncertainty and unclear immigration/population dynamics increase downside risk for hiring and investment.
ADP
Bullish
ADP's modest payroll print is compatible with broader stability shown by the Chicago Fed indicator.
Bearish
ADP's private payroll reading (~42,000) underscores weaker payroll creation and the risk of labor cooling.
ADBE
Bullish
Adobe's pricing data projects can provide timely signals when official statistics are unavailable.
Bearish
Adobe Digital Price Index and similar online price measures skew toward goods and miss services inflation signals.
WAYMO
Bullish
Productivity gains from technologies like Waymo could reduce labor demand but also boost medium‑run growth.
Bearish
Autonomous‑vehicle/Waymo analogy raised potential for technology to replace some labor in the short run.
SMBC
Bullish
SMBC analyst Troy Ludka's aggregation helps fill data gaps during the government shutdown.
Bearish
SMBC's aggregated price data efforts are limited and skewed, so they may understate services inflation.
People mentioned
Austin GoolsbeeTroy LudkaSteve