CNBC Television
We're getting to the long-end of the upgrade cycle in mobile phones, says Seaport's Jay Goldberg
11/5/2025, 9:56:15 PM
Economic Summary
- Handset demand shows strength at the premium end, possibly from AI-enabled features or simply pent-up upgrades as average phone age nears four years; this supports chipset demand for smartphone suppliers like QCOM and mirrors trends seen at Apple (AAPL).
- Global upgrade dynamics: in some markets consumers are migrating from mid/low-end to premium phones, which could lift ASPs and benefit semiconductor suppliers integrated in premium devices.
- Automotive is a structural growth area as semiconductor content per vehicle increases; Qualcomm's chips fit emerging digital cockpit and infotainment needs, contributing to revenue diversification away from smartphones.
- Qualcomm's data-center/AI ambitions exist but are not a material contributor today; the transcript emphasizes the AI/data-center payoff is a distant possibility rather than a current investment case.
- Concentration risk remains significant: despite diversification efforts, the smartphone market still drives the majority of revenue and increased competition there could materially impact Qualcomm's outlook.
Bullish
- Automotive semiconductor content is rising; Qualcomm is positioned for digital cockpits and in-car infotainment.
- Handset strength driven by premium upgrades and an extended upgrade cycle (~4 years) supports near-term demand.
- Consumers in mid/low-end markets are shifting to premium phones, potentially raising average selling prices.
Bearish
- Qualcomm remains highly concentrated: ~80% of revenue from smartphones, creating significant single-market risk.
- Rising competition in the smartphone market threatens Qualcomm's core business and margins.
- AI/data-center opportunity for Qualcomm is a long-term prospect, not a near-term earnings catalyst.
Bullish tickers
QCOMAAPL
Bearish tickers
QCOM
QCOM
Bullish
Automotive revenue is up (noted 17%) as semiconductor content in cars rises and Qualcomm supplies timely chips for digital cockpits; handset premium upgrades and shifting markets to premium phones support near-term demand.
Bearish
Despite diversification efforts, ~80% of Qualcomm's revenue still comes from smartphones, exposing it to intense competition and upgrade-cycle risks; the AI/data-center opportunity is viewed as distant, so near-term upside is limited.
AAPL
Bullish
Premium handset strength echoed in Qualcomm's results suggests strong demand dynamics at the high end, similar to trends observed at Apple, potentially benefiting the broader premium device ecosystem.
People mentioned
Jay GoldbergCristiano