CNBC Television
We're still positive on markets, says Janus Henderson's Jeremiah Buckley
11/6/2025, 3:53:55 PM
Economic Summary
- The S&P 500 is up about 16% year-to-date while earnings are up ~13%, with more sectors contributing to earnings growth beyond mega-cap tech.
- Consumer spending appears resilient: Visa and MasterCard report consistent trends and Costco posted a 6.6% U.S. comp store sales print, supporting retail and payments volumes (COST, V, MA).
- AI infrastructure demand is strong — companies like AMD and NVIDIA report robust GPU sales — and hyperscalers are funding substantial CapEx through cash flow and bond issuance (e.g., Oracle), supporting ongoing productivity gains and margin expansion.
- There remain macro concerns — notably the labor market — that create downside risk even as corporate productivity improvements from AI may drive multi-year earnings tailwinds.
Bullish
- AI-driven GPU demand supports growth for Nvidia and AMD.
- Hyperscalers are funding AI capex via cashflow and bond markets (Oracle).
- Earnings growth is broadening across sectors beyond technology.
- Consumer spending remains resilient, supporting card networks and retailers.
Bearish
- Labor market weakness could slow consumer spending and earnings growth.
- Costco's trendline has weakened since the summer, signaling slowing retail momentum.
- MasterCard has lost relative strength versus American Express since mid-year.
- High valuations for AI leaders could be vulnerable to macro/headwind shifts.
Bullish tickers
NVDAAMDORCLVMACOSTMSFTAAPLGOOGLAMZNJPM
Bearish tickers
COSTMANVDA
NVDA
Bullish
Surging AI infrastructure and GPU demand driving significant growth; listed as a top holding.
Bearish
High valuation risk despite strong AI-driven demand; macro or labor weakness could pressure multiples.
MSFT
Bullish
Well-positioned to benefit from enterprise AI adoption and productivity gains.
Bearish
Large-cap valuation vulnerability if macro conditions deteriorate.
GOOGL
Bullish
Alphabet benefits from AI initiatives and infrastructure demand across its businesses.
Bearish
Could face valuation pressure if AI monetization timelines slip.
AAPL
Bullish
Top holding likely to benefit indirectly from AI ecosystem and persistent consumer spending.
Bearish
Hardware cyclicality could weigh on growth if consumer spending cools.
AMZN
Bullish
AWS and Amazon's scale position it to capture AI infrastructure and services demand.
Bearish
Capital intensity at AWS and retail could pressure margins in adverse conditions.
V
Bullish
Visa reports consistent spending trends and benefits from resilient consumer transactions.
Bearish
A broader consumer slowdown would reduce transaction volumes and revenue.
MA
Bullish
MasterCard sees healthy, broad consumer spending trends supporting growth.
Bearish
Relative strength versus American Express has dissipated since mid-year.
COST
Bullish
Reported a 6.6% U.S. comp and indicates still-robust consumer spending.
Bearish
Comp sales trend has weakened since the summer, suggesting slowing momentum.
AXP
Bullish
American Express benefits from premium customers and strong travel-related spending.
Bearish
Concentration in premium and travel segments could be cyclical risk if travel slows.
ORCL
Bullish
Oracle bond issuance was well received and hyperscaler funding supports continued AI-related CapEx.
Bearish
May lag hyperscaler peers in specialized AI hardware and faces execution risks integrating offerings.
AMD
Bullish
Reported strong GPU sales and a robust outlook, benefitting from AI demand.
Bearish
Competition with Nvidia and semiconductor cyclicality could pressure near-term results.
JPM
Bullish
Large institutions like JP Morgan are seeing productivity gains from AI investments reducing operating expenses.
Bearish
Banks remain exposed to macro and labor-market risks which could impact loan performance.
People mentioned
Jeremiah BuckleyCarl