CNBC Television
Where Chipotle loses McDonald's will pick up, says G Squared's Victoria Greene
11/4/2025, 7:10:26 PM
Economic Summary
- Consumers are trading down toward value offerings, boosting competitors like McDonald's (MCD) via promotions (e.g., $5 meal, BOGO $1) and loyalty events such as Monopoly, which could offset U.S. softness with international strength in markets like Japan and China.
- Cruise operators are experiencing demand softening in onboard spending (experiences, drink/internet packages), leading to lower yields; combined with fleet expansion-driven debt and sharply higher interest costs, this is pressuring names like Norwegian (NCLH) and Royal Caribbean (RCL).
- Shopify (SHOP) posted 32% revenue growth but missed on operating income and saw transaction and loan losses rise to $148M, creating short-term volatility despite a continued long-term e‑commerce and AI integration growth narrative.
- Value stocks show pockets of appeal as exemplified by Ford (F) trading at a low P/E (~8), contrasting with higher‑multiple tech names and signaling rotation opportunities for investors seeking cheaper cyclicals.
Bullish
- McDonald's (MCD) benefits as consumers trade down to value and from international strength.
- Shopify (SHOP) remains a growth story with AI integrations and e‑commerce expansion.
- Ford (F) appears as a value play with a low P/E of about 8.
Bearish
- Norwegian Cruise (NCLH) missed revenue and cut guidance amid rising debt and interest costs.
- Cruise sector sees weaker onboard spending and slowing yields, pressuring profitability (affects NCLH, RCL).
- Shopify (SHOP) had an operating income miss and transaction/loan losses doubled to $148 million.
Bullish tickers
MCDSHOPF
Bearish tickers
NCLHRCLSHOPCMG
MCD
1 price targets
320
Bullish
Strong value positioning, successful promotions and loyalty events, international exposure could drive outperformance and return to prior highs (~$320).
CMG
Bearish
Potential share loss to value competitors like McDonald's as consumers trade down.
NCLH
2 price targets
1516
Bearish
Revenue miss and lower guidance; rising debt and interest costs, weaker onboard spend hurting yields.
RCL
Bearish
Shares fell sharply after earnings, reflecting sectorwide demand and yield concerns.
SHOP
Bullish
Strong revenue growth (32%), AI/chat integrations and enterprise wins support long-term e-commerce growth thesis.
Bearish
Operating income missed and transaction/loan losses doubled to $148 million, creating short-term headwinds.
F
Bullish
Low P/E (~8) suggests value opportunity relative to higher-multiple names.
People mentioned
Victoria