Fundstrat
$BTC & $ETH: Where do institutions stand?
8/22/2025, 6:42:58 PM
Economic Summary
- Near term: investors are de-risking ahead of Jackson Hole, with expectations of a wait-and-see Fed response and a likely relief rally once clarity emerges.
- Medium term: Fundstrat expects a net-dovish, accommodative Fed into the next FOMC—possible rate holds or cuts amid slower but solid growth and controlled unemployment—which would be supportive for liquidity-sensitive crypto assets like BTC and ETH.
- Structural shift: Bitcoin ETFs have integrated BTC into global portfolios and indices, and recent policy/issuance developments (Genius Act, Circle IPO) have spurred institutional interest in stablecoins and tokenization as major long-term trends.
Bullish
- Dovish Fed/increased liquidity supports crypto performance.
- Bitcoin ETFs driving institutional allocation into BTC.
- Rising institutional demand for stablecoins and tokenization.
Bearish
- Investors de-risking ahead of Jackson Hole could trigger short-term selling pressure in crypto.
- A less dovish or mixed Fed tone would reduce liquidity for risk assets like BTC and ETH.
- Uncertainty around Fed internal dynamics (e.g., the Cook situation) could raise volatility and delay relief rallies.
Bullish tickers
BTCETHCIRCLE
Bearish tickers
BTCETHCIRCLE
BTC
Bullish
ETF-driven institutional allocation and a dovish Fed/liquidity backdrop support long-term demand for BTC.
Bearish
Short-term selling from de-risking, Fed hawkish surprises, and elevated volatility could pressure BTC.
ETH
Bullish
Continued institutional interest in crypto and tokenization trends support ETH adoption and demand.
Bearish
ETH could suffer along with broader crypto during liquidity shocks or a hawkish Fed pivot.
CIRCLE
Bullish
Circle IPO and policy developments have heightened institutional interest in stablecoins, benefiting Circle's business prospects.
Bearish
IPO execution risk and potential stablecoin regulatory scrutiny could hinder Circle's growth trajectory.
People mentioned
Sean FarrellJerome PowellLisa Cook