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Fundstrat

Tom Lee: Crypto Sell-Off & Can Tech's Run Keep Up Into 2026?

11/5/2025, 10:28:17 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Funding and liquidity dynamics matter: a sharp SOFR drop and month-end window dressing, combined with Treasury General Account cash buildup from the government shutdown, have tightened liquidity and contributed to market stress across assets.
  • Crypto deleveraging continues: the Oct 10 unwind was the largest in history, producing multi-week ripple effects, protocol losses and hacks (e.g., Balancer-related), though Tom Lee sees no widespread systemic failures yet.
  • Cross-asset linkages growing: market makers trade both crypto and equities, increasing correlations; volatility in crypto can spill into Nasdaq/QQQ, particularly when stocks are overbought.
  • A.I. valuation context: MAG-7 and leading A.I. names (notably NVIDIA/NVDA) are supported by double-digit growth, with NVDA around 29x forward earnings, suggesting relative reasonableness despite concentrated leadership.
  • Historical nuance for equities: after six months of gains, November outcomes historically range from flat to modestly positive, so a short-term wobble rather than a sustained decline is plausible.
Bullish
  • Resolution of shutdown/liquidity issues could turn headwinds into tailwinds for crypto.
  • Top A.I. names still show strong growth and reasonable forward multiples.
  • Mean-reversion buying potential in long-underperforming stocks.
Bearish
  • Bitcoin broke below its 200-day moving average, signaling technical weakness.
  • Funding stress in SOFR and Treasury window-dressing amid the government shutdown.
  • Large deleveraging events in crypto (Oct 10) with ongoing ripple effects and hacks.
  • Stocks may be vulnerable after six consecutive months up and stretched A.I. valuations.
Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee on Where Crypto Meets AI (ft. Virtuals Protocol)

11/5/2025, 10:23:17 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Hyperscaler/LLM CapEx over the next several years (trillions implied) is accelerating AI infrastructure, increasing demand for coordination and security layers where blockchain can play a role (relevant to ETH/BTC and infrastructure players).
  • By 2026, the speakers expect enterprise demand for verified provenance of agent instructions to rise, creating a market for protocols that bundle payment, execution, and identity on-chain (benefit to Virtuals Protocol).
  • Tokenization of productive autonomous agents creates new capital-formation and distribution models: launchpads can act as YC-like distribution and funding channels for agent founders, lowering customer acquisition and funding frictions.
  • Blockchains solve three key agentic problems: trustless coordination (single source of truth), bundling of execution and payment to remove timing mismatches, and on-chain provenance/reviews to reduce search and selection costs.
  • Current near-term product-market fit in the Virtuals ecosystem is crypto trading alpha: many specialized agents focus on on-chain due diligence, trading signals, and automated execution, driving early adoption.
Bullish
  • Blockchain provides trustless coordination, bundled payment+execution, and on-chain provenance for agent transactions.
  • Tokenization and launchpad distribution lower capital and distribution barriers for agent founders.
  • Specialized fleets of agents outperform general LMs on niche tasks, enabling scalable app-level value.
  • On-chain agent identity and reviews reduce search costs and enable market emergence for high-quality agents.
Bearish
  • Agent hallucinations and information loss can break autonomous transactions without robust verification.
  • Fragmentation of the agentic stack (coordination, payments, provenance) creates interoperability and adoption hurdles.
  • Big tech and payments incumbents (Google, OpenAI, Coinbase/Stripe) could capture key rails and marginalize niche protocols.
  • Regulatory and safety concerns around agents controlling wallets and money may slow deployment and product-market fit.
Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Q4 Crypto View: BTC $130–160K? ETH Leads?

11/3/2025, 10:32:52 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Policy stance emphasizes rebalancing trade via tariffs, reducing deficits, and running the economy hotter through easier monetary policy, which supports liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto and gold.
  • A weaker U.S. dollar regime (via lower rates or global flows) tends to be bullish for Bitcoin (BTC) with a 90-day lag relationship observed historically.
  • Central-bank liquidity is a core input: the TGA-driven reserve drawdown has been a recent drag, but QT ending and a rebuilt Treasury account point to a more liquidity-positive Q4 for risk assets.
  • Gold has been a preferred risk-adjusted debasement trade and often leads Bitcoin in rolling 60-day returns; central banks buying gold for dollar diversification strengthens that theme.
  • Market structure signals: leverage resets (large drops in BTC open interest) have historically been good buying opportunities, while sentiment measures (Fear & Greed neutral) suggest upside can accelerate from neutral conditions.
  • Derivative flow shows puts trading richer than calls across tenors, implying limited market confidence in substantial near-term upside despite seasonally positive Q4 dynamics.
Bullish
  • Dollar weakness and lower rates are supportive for crypto and gold.
  • Rebuilding central-bank liquidity (QT ending, TGA no longer rising) should be liquidity-positive into Q4.
  • Gold-to-Bitcoin rotational dynamics could drive substantial BTC upside if historical ratios reassert.
Bearish
  • Put-call skew is positive, indicating higher demand for downside protection and limited near-term upside conviction.
  • Recent liquidity drawdown (TGA refill) and months of sideways trading raise the risk of continued muted returns.
  • Leverage resets and >25% drops in Bitcoin open interest historically accompany volatile drawdowns.
Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: November Rally Could Push S&P Toward 7,500

11/3/2025, 4:12:07 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Market has rallied six months in a row — a rare occurrence — and seasonality plus momentum could drive strong November gains (Tom Lee called 200–250 S&P points).
  • Sentiment indicators (AII ~ -11.5) remain bearish even as equities are up ~17%, implying a performance chase and latent bullish flows into public stocks.
  • Inflation metrics appear to be easing faster than expected: 'trueflation' sub-2%, shelter component weakening, and 54% of CPI components deflating, which would materially lower core inflation.
  • Fed liquidity operations (repo) have picked up, likely reflecting month-end and shutdown effects, but calm high-yield spreads suggest minimal bank stress currently.
  • AI-related productivity appears to be expanding corporate profit margins despite tariffs, supporting earnings growth even amid macro uncertainty.
  • Private markets (private credit, venture, private equity) and many fund managers have delivered disappointing returns, creating divergence between public and private performance.
Bullish
  • Core inflation appears to be falling quickly, with shelter moderating — could prompt Fed cuts and lift markets.
  • AI-driven productivity gains are boosting corporate profits and margins despite tariffs.
  • Underperformance by many fund managers is prompting a performance chase into public equities.
  • Crypto fundamentals (stablecoin volumes and application revenues) are strong, supporting year-end BTC/ETH rallies.
  • Repo operations are typical month-end flows and calm high‑yield spreads suggest limited systemic bank stress.
Bearish
  • Hawkish Fed comments (Powell) or signals could trigger short-term market wobble and volatility.
  • Private markets and private credit are underperforming, suggesting liquidity or returns stress outside public markets.
  • Speculative, non‑profitable tech leading gains raises risk of a sharp correction if sentiment reverses.
  • Housing/shelter weakness could depress homebuilders, regional banks, and consumer cyclicals.
  • Recent massive crypto liquidation increases short-term downside risk for BTC and ETH prices.
Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Bumpy Few Weeks Ahead?

10/31/2025, 8:48:06 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • A Key survey shows an average sentiment of -11.7 this year — only comparable to 1990, 2002, and 2022 — implying the current V-shaped rally is broadly unpopular and that many investors remain positioned defensively.
  • About 80% of fund managers are trailing their benchmarks, the worst reading in nearly 25 years, which creates incentive for year-end catch-up buying if managers rotate into leadership.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that tariff-driven inflation effects were smaller than expected and that many CPI components (54% in September) displayed deflation, indicating headline inflation is easing materially.
  • Powell framed policy as 'less restrictive' rather than accommodative; if inflation continues to fall and the labor market weakens, this supports the case for rate cuts, which would be equity-positive.
  • Near-term macro risk includes a persistent government shutdown slowing activity (e.g., air travel) that should depress inflationary pressures and contribute to economic softness, while markets may consolidate after October’s strong gains.
Bullish
  • November seasonality historically positive, supporting further gains.
  • Corporate margins have improved despite tariffs, providing earnings tailwinds.
  • Falling inflation (many CPI components in deflation) increases odds of Fed easing.
  • Underperforming managers may chase the rally into year-end, adding buying pressure.
Bearish
  • Investor sentiment remains deeply negative (Key survey avg -11.7), consistent with past weak-market years.
  • 80% of fund managers are trailing their benchmarks, creating pressure but also potential late selling.
  • Small caps may underperform if expected rate cuts don't materialize.
  • Near-term technical consolidation likely after a strong October rally; markets could be choppy.
Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Mark Newton: Which Sectors Could Lead the Market in November?

10/27/2025, 8:34:32 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Equity technical trends are strong with intermediate-term momentum positive, small-cap breakouts, and seasonally favorable conditions supporting risk assets.
  • Market breadth remains narrow—tech (MAG-7) has driven gains while equal-weighted indices are flat since July, implying dependence on a few mega-cap names like AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA.
  • Earnings are described as phenomenal, helping sustain the rally, while the broader economy is 'chugging along,' reducing immediate macro downside risk.
Bullish
  • Technology leadership is driving the recent breakout and remains the top-performing sector.
  • Shopify (SHOP) has broken out to all-time highs with a technical target near $210.
  • Former MAG-7 laggards like Alphabet and Tesla are starting to lead, indicating rotation within mega-caps.
Bearish
  • If technology peaks and other sectors don't broaden, the market could suffer a meaningful pullback.
  • Market leadership is narrow—equal-weighted S&P has been flat since July, signaling concentration risk in mega-cap tech.
  • Speculative sentiment and signs of excess would be a contrarian warning sign for a larger sell-off.
Fundstrat

Mark Newton: Will Tech Earnings and Fed Cuts Push Stocks Even Higher?

10/27/2025, 2:41:17 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • U.S.-China trade optimism from a high-level meeting—potential soybean purchases, rare-earth export control relief, fentanyl and TikTok deals—would reduce trade tensions and support markets.
  • Fed rate cuts are already largely priced in via Fed Fund Futures, with market expectations of about two cuts by year-end and possibly more next year, which underpins risk asset performance.
  • This week is data- and central-bank-heavy (BOC, ECB, BOJ, Fed) along with major tech earnings, making it one of the most important market weeks of the year for direction.
  • The rally is narrow: equal-weight S&P has been flat for months while cap-weighted tech strength has driven indices higher, so breadth and financial sector participation are needed for a durable advance.
  • Technicals remain supportive overall, but Mark Newton expects a 3%–5% consolidation in November rather than a 10% correction; such pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities.
Bullish
  • Mega-cap tech breakouts (AAPL, TSLA, NVDA) could drive further gains.
  • Fed rate cuts are largely priced in, supporting risk assets.
  • Earnings have been strong and the economy remains on solid footing.
Bearish
  • Rally is narrowly concentrated in mega-cap tech and vulnerable to a pullback if leadership weakens.
  • Weakness from Alphabet (GOOGL) or other MAG7 names could spark a temporary market decline.
  • A 3%–5% consolidation in November is likely as the market digests strong gains this year.
Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Gold Peaking & Crypto Ready to Run

10/24/2025, 8:49:13 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Equities have outperformed year-to-date (S&P up >15%); Tom Lee's base case expects at least a further ~4% gain into year-end, implying the S&P would top 7,000, and he sees potential for up to 10% given current momentum.
  • The Fed is expected to begin cutting later this year after a long pause; Lee notes such prolonged pauses occurred only twice in the past 50 years (1998 and 2024), which supports a bullish outlook for risk assets.
  • Crypto experienced a major deleveraging on October 10 tied to rising US-China tariff tensions, but open interest for Bitcoin and Ethereum sits at record lows while technicals are turning positive, implying a potential rally into year-end.
  • Gold may be short-term peaking per technical analysis (cup-and-handle), and a cooling in gold could free up flows into equities and crypto, improving market breadth.
Bullish
  • Federal Reserve cuts expected this year, supporting additional S&P gains.
  • Bitcoin acted like a store of value despite a historic deleveraging event.
  • Ethereum L1/L2 activity and stablecoin growth argue for price upside.
  • JPMorgan open to using crypto as collateral signals institutional adoption.
Bearish
  • Tariff and US-China trade tensions triggered a large crypto liquidation event.
  • Government shutdown and tariff headaches add macro risk to markets.
  • Crypto still facing lingering ripple effects from the October 10 deleveraging.
Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Is There an AI Bubble?

10/24/2025, 8:00:28 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Worries about an AI bubble are likely overstated; speaker compares NVDA's role to Cisco in 1998 and argues NVDA is scarcer and more essential, implying less bubble risk (mentions NVDA, CSCO).
  • AI spending is accelerating with enterprises starting to see payoffs—driving revenue, margin expansion, and efficiency gains that justify higher valuations for productive companies.
  • Valuation multiples are dynamic and historical comparisons can be misleading; changes in nominal rates, recurring revenue mix, and a battle-tested market support structurally higher P/Es.
  • Earnings fundamentals remain strong: roughly 85% of companies beat estimates this quarter, implying about 15% aggregate earnings growth—above typical late-cycle single-digit growth.
  • Macro and policy (Fed actions, interest rates) and market sentiment now often dominate stock performance, so liquidity/monetary conditions create a 'monetary premium' embedded in equity multiples.
Bullish
  • NVIDIA is a scarce, essential AI chip supplier benefiting from accelerating AI spend.
  • AI spending is accelerating and enterprises are beginning to see payoffs in productivity and margins.
  • High earnings beat rates and persistent earnings growth (~15% cited) support current valuations.
  • Recurring revenue mix in the market supports higher average P/E multiples and potential re-rating.
Bearish
  • Concerns that AI spending is a speculative bubble could trigger a sharp valuation reset.
  • High valuation of some consumer/retail franchises (e.g., COST) makes them vulnerable if growth slows.
  • Historical precedents like Cisco show commodity products can suffer extreme multiple contractions.
  • Market sentiment and momentum dominating fundamentals could reverse quickly and hurt stock prices.
Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Mark Newton: Will the S&P 500 Hit 7,000 or Correct First?

10/23/2025, 1:13:13 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • 10-year Treasury yields near 4% are politically and psychologically important; Fundstrat expects yields to pull back to ~3.90% before a year-end bounce, which would help borrowing costs and markets.
  • Fed rate cuts are expected (roughly four cuts over the next year), which should be supportive for metals, borrowers, housing, and risk assets.
  • U.S. M&A activity surged to its biggest month in 25 years, indicating heavy dealmaking and repositioning even after a 35% market rally.
  • Market internals show narrow leadership—technology has rallied strongly while the eco-weighted S&P is flat since July—raising vulnerability to a pullback without broader participation.
  • Early signs of stress in private credit and modest junk bond selloffs warrant attention, though the speaker does not interpret them as systemic yet.
  • Crude oil supply remains elevated and demand may be softening; technician expects a continued decline into early next year before a potential energy rebound in 2026.
Bullish
  • Stick with the uptrend; market and bonds are generally rising.
  • Small caps breaking out benefit from falling yields and high leverage dynamics.
  • Strong AI spending and recurring tech earnings support continued upside for tech/AI stocks.
  • Long-term constructive view on cryptocurrencies, with altcoins and Ethereum favored over Bitcoin.
Bearish
  • Expect a correction in November with a possible 15-20% pullback into early next year.
  • Market breadth and momentum are weakening; tech leadership is narrow while rest of market lags.
  • Signs of stress in private credit and widening junk bond spreads could signal contagion risks.
  • Crude oil likely to decline toward low $50s or even $40s, pressuring energy sector earnings.
Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Mark Newton: Will the S&P 500 Hit 7,000 or Correct First?

10/23/2025, 12:15:03 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Why the Bull Market Isn’t Over Yet | 2025 Market Outlook

10/22/2025, 7:31:21 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • The bond market is pricing multiple Fed cuts this cycle; easing would lower yields and likely push mortgage rates down roughly 70 basis points, potentially bringing mortgage rates toward the mid-5% range next year.
  • The ISM manufacturing index has been below 50 for an extended period (48.7), which historically corresponds to mid/early cycle conditions rather than a terminal late cycle, a constructive signal for equities.
  • Household fundamentals are supportive: roughly 15 million household formations in the last decade vs. ~13.5 million homes built, implying a structural housing shortage that should support housing demand and related sectors.
  • The market endured six severe shocks in five years yet corporate profits and stock prices recovered; equal-weight S&P P/E sits near 17x, lower than pre-shock levels, suggesting cheaper valuations given resilience.
  • AI is an outsized economic driver — IDC forecasts ~$1.3 trillion IT spending around AI by 2029 — and NVIDIA (NVDA) is positioned as a critical, scarce supplier for large language model infrastructure.
  • Blockchain/tokenization (stablecoins, tokenized securities, tokenized real estate) could materially expand digital-asset markets (Treasury estimate for stablecoins cited) and improve Wall Street productivity and margins, enabling new revenue streams.
Bullish
  • Fed easing is priced in by bonds and should lower borrowing costs, boosting liquidity.
  • AI spending surge (IDC $1.3T by 2029) benefits dominant chip suppliers like NVDA.
  • Housing shortage from underbuilding vs. household formation supports housing demand and mortgage activity.
  • Blockchain and tokenization could materially raise Wall Street margins (benefiting GS, JPM).
  • Market survived six major shocks, leaving valuations cheaper and demonstrating resilience.
  • Household balance sheets and corporate profits remain strong, supporting consumption and earnings.
Bearish
  • AI hype could be a bubble, prompting sharp re-rates for related stocks.
  • Political polarization and skewed sentiment are keeping many investors sidelined.
  • Manufacturing ISM below 50 signals weak manufacturing, a potential growth headwind.
  • Seasonal September risks and uncertainty about Fed timing could pressure stocks.
Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Does the bull market still have room to run?

10/21/2025, 8:11:20 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Earnings are currently solid and upcoming mega-cap reports are expected to sustain the rally; improved AI visibility may increase corporate spending priorities into 2026.
  • The Federal Reserve is likely to enter an easing cycle with rate cuts next year, which would lower borrowing costs, ease household burdens, and support consumer spending and equity valuations.
  • A VIX-driven deleveraging event occurred about ten days ago, suggesting much short-term selling may be done and could prompt a catch-up rally into year-end, potentially lifting the S&P to 7,000 or higher.
  • Manufacturing has been weak with the ISM below 50 for 32 months; a rebound above 50—potentially aided by onshoring—would be an important positive catalyst for the economy.
Bullish
  • Upcoming mega-cap earnings could drive the S&P toward 7,000+.
  • Expected Fed easing and potential rate cuts next year support equities.
  • Improving AI visibility should boost corporate spending into 2026.
  • Deleveraging may have already occurred, setting up a year-end chase higher.
Bearish
  • High valuations remain a concern despite earnings momentum.
  • A recent VIX spike led to deleveraging and heightened short-term volatility risk.
  • ISM below 50 for 32 months indicates prolonged weakness in manufacturing activity.
Fundstrat

Tom Lee & Cathie Wood: Will Ethereum Overtake Bitcoin?

10/19/2025, 2:01:24 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • The podcast forecasts the crypto asset ecosystem reaching $25 trillion by 2030, with a majority allocated to Bitcoin (BTC) as a global, rules-based monetary system similar to digital gold.
  • Drawing an analogy to post-1971 economics, when Richard Nixon ended the gold standard and Wall Street engineered products that increased dollar dominance, the speakers argue Ethereum (ETH) could similarly benefit as markets tokenize assets.
  • Tokenization of dollars (stablecoins), stocks, and real estate onto blockchains is highlighted as a major growth opportunity for Ethereum, positioning it as the platform for Wall Street innovation in real-world assets.
  • Speakers remain bullish on Bitcoin, suggesting a fair value range for BTC of approximately $1,500,000 to $2,100,000 per coin, while acknowledging Ethereum could capture significant market share if tokenization unfolds.
Bullish
  • Ethereum could flip Bitcoin through tokenization of dollars and real-world assets.
  • Bitcoin retains massive upside as digital gold, with fair value targets cited at $1.5M–$2.1M.
Bearish
  • Ethereum may not flip Bitcoin and could remain a neutral smart-contract platform.
  • Tokenization benefits might concentrate elsewhere, limiting ETH upside.
Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Why the S&P 500 Could Hit 7,000 & What’s Next for Crypto

10/17/2025, 8:35:41 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Opacity in private credit is creating investor caution; if flows into private credit slow, alternatives allocations could be repriced and hit markets.
  • There is strong AI-driven demand and substantial cash on the sidelines, which may catalyze a chase into equities and multiple expansion.
  • Many institutional investors are underperforming (only ~22% beating benchmarks), increasing the likelihood of catch-up buying into winners.
  • The speaker expects Fed easing after an extended pause, making a mid-to-high single digit Q4 rally plausible, with 5% as a base case and 7–10% possible.
  • Earnings season has started well: banks reported strong results and about 82% of companies are beating, improving near-term corporate visibility.
  • Small caps are highlighted as having strong earnings growth (cited ~48% in Q3), suggesting they could outperform the broader market.
Bullish
  • AI demand accelerating could drive equity flows.
  • Large cash balances and poor institutional performance could fuel a chase into stocks.
  • Fed easing after an extended pause should support a year-end rally.
  • Regional banks and small caps look oversold with strong earnings growth.
Bearish
  • Opacity in private credit could cause capital flow disruption and investor caution.
  • Trade tensions and VIX spikes may trigger volatility and further deleveraging.
  • Continued issues in private credit or leveraged loans could meaningfully hurt stocks.
Fundstrat

Why 2025? Tom Lee & Cathie Wood on ETH’s Big Moment

10/17/2025, 7:32:13 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • DAPs (decentralized asset products) began appearing on Ethereum and Solana in 2025 as foundations, regulators, and Wall Street grew more receptive, enabling institutional-style exposure and new corporate structures for tokenized assets (relevant to ETH, SOL).
  • MicroStrategy's 2020 pivot illustrated a corporate route for institutional Bitcoin exposure: when BTC was around $11,000, firms needing equity instruments used MicroStrategy (MSTR) to gain crypto exposure, producing large shareholder returns despite the company’s stagnant core business.
  • Stablecoins emerged as a breakout product in 2025, creating major crypto-native firms (Circle, Tether); Tether’s cited ~$500B valuation and extreme revenue-per-employee metrics highlight how crypto-native banking models can be vastly more profitable than traditional banks, supporting growth on smart-contract blockchains.
Bullish
  • DAPs enable institutions to get crypto exposure through corporate equities like MicroStrategy (MSTR).
  • Favorable 2025 regulation and Wall Street interest accelerate rebuilding on smart-contract chains (ETH, SOL).
  • Stablecoins' breakout (Circle, Tether) proves product-market fit and fuels profitable crypto-native banking models.
Bearish
  • DAPs contradict the original decentralized vision (Satoshi), risking centralization via corporate shells.
  • MicroStrategy's core security business shows near-zero growth, threatening sustainability of equity-driven crypto exposure.
  • Huge private valuations (e.g., Tether) raise concentration and regulatory risk concerns.
Fundstrat

Q4 Pullback or New Highs Ahead? | Fundstrat's Mark Newton Explains

10/15/2025, 8:13:25 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Seasonality and cyclical context are constructive: this is the fifth year of the decade and post-election patterns can be bullish, suggesting tailwinds into year-end.
  • Breadth is beginning to improve as the equal-weight S&P recently hit new highs, signaling that financials, healthcare, and industrials are participating beyond mega-cap tech.
  • AI cycle is driving outsized earnings growth for leaders (e.g., NVDA, AMD), and CEOs report strong demand, allowing valuations to remain elevated in the near term.
  • Monetary policy is expected to ease: markets are pricing multiple Fed cuts over the next year, which would be supportive for risk assets if realized.
  • Labor data is softening (ADP miss, muted jobs prints), indicating hiring has slowed rather than massive layoffs — a bifurcated labor market that complicates Fed decisions.
Bullish
  • AI boom is in early innings and is driving strong earnings growth.
  • Equal-weight S&P making new highs indicates broader market participation beyond mega-caps.
  • Government support for select companies (e.g., Pfizer, Intel) has buoyed sectors like health care.
  • Market is pricing in Fed easing (multiple cuts), which would be supportive for equities.
  • Seasonality (fifth year of a decade and post-election patterns) tends to be bullish.
Bearish
  • Market breadth is weakening; a small number of leaders are driving gains while many stocks lag.
  • A choppy 3-5% pullback is likely in the November window (short-term correction risk).
  • Heavy concentration in MAG-7 names raises concentration and valuation risk for the broader index.
  • Rising bullish sentiment could serve as a contrarian sell signal if it becomes extreme.
  • Slowing hiring and weak ADP/jobs signals create macro uncertainty that could pressure markets.
  • AI-related deal circularity between vendors (NVIDIA/AMD/etc.) could amplify downside if fundamentals disappoint.
Fundstrat

Fundstrat: Tesla & Bitcoin at Critical Levels

10/14/2025, 5:33:00 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • MicroStrategy (MSTR) technical setup: after a five-wave decline into Sept 25, the rally from late September suggests structural improvement; key support is $292 (must hold), with upside targets ~328-331, 350, and 365, while a break below 292 risks a drop to ~231.
  • Broad crypto market commentary: the speaker sees many cryptocurrencies stabilizing and beginning to turn higher, implying crypto-linked equities like MSTR could follow if momentum continues.
  • Palantir (PLTR) is noted as 'still actionable' with continued interest, though no specific price levels or technical details were provided.
Bullish
  • MSTR likely bottoming; targets near 328-331, then 350 and 365.
  • Many cryptocurrencies stabilizing and starting to turn higher.
Bearish
  • If MSTR breaks below 292, expect a pullback toward 231.
  • Avoid buying dips far off all-time highs; risk of extended downside.
Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Why Wall Street Will Build on Ethereum?

10/13/2025, 8:43:43 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Bitcoin is framed as digital money/digital gold while Ethereum is framed as compute; they are complementary rather than substitutes, implying separate value pools for BTC and ETH.
  • Institutional adoption is increasing: BlackRock's ETFs, Fidelity's products, and companies like Stripe building EVMs point to tokenization and financial services migrating to blockchain rails.
  • If banks adopt blockchain and AI broadly (example: JPM), they could operate with far fewer staff, gain efficiency, and see valuation multiples shift toward tech-style PE multiples, similar to how Costco/Walmart re-rated.
Bullish
  • Ethereum as 'compute' and Bitcoin as 'digital money' are complementary, allowing both BTC and ETH to grow in different markets.
  • Institutional moves — BlackRock ETFs, Fidelity products, and Stripe building an EVM — signal accelerating Wall Street adoption.
  • Blockchain plus AI could transform banks (e.g., JPM) into tech-like firms, reducing costs and potentially re-rating multiples.
Bearish
  • Regulatory changes or a less favorable regulatory environment could stall institutional adoption and product launches.
  • Integration challenges and legacy system complexity at banks may slow blockchain-driven efficiency gains.
Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee on Friday's Selloff

10/13/2025, 12:50:57 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • JPMorgan announced roughly $1.5 trillion in investments into the U.S., which Fundstrat says strengthens U.S. advantages in AI and blockchain and supports continued equity upside (JPM).
  • Equities have rallied ~36% since April lows, and Tom Lee believes lower interest rates plus improving earnings are a powerful elixir for stocks, though valuations are elevated (mentions NVDA, Walmart/WMT, Costco/COST, Ford/F).
  • Crypto markets retain substantial leverage via perpetuals (up to 20x–50x on some platforms), which caused large recent liquidations (estimates ≥ $19B) and creates systemic volatility risk for investors.
  • There is an observed correlation between rising Tether (USDT) supply and gold prices; Fundstrat suggests stablecoins may be meaningful buyers of gold, affecting cross-asset flows.
Bullish
  • JPMorgan's $1.5 trillion investment into the U.S. supports tech, AI, and blockchain-led growth.
  • Lower interest rates plus improving earnings are a strong tailwind for stocks.
  • Large amounts of sidelined cash could flow into equities, sustaining the rally.
  • Stablecoin demand (e.g., Tether) may be lifting gold, creating cross-asset buying dynamics.
Bearish
  • Crypto market contains large hidden leverage via perpetuals, driving big liquidation cascades and volatility.
  • Markets are not cheap after a 36% rally since April lows; valuation risks remain.
  • Economic shutdowns could be disinflationary but hurt employment, complicating Fed policy and growth.
Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Buying Opportunity Ahead?

10/10/2025, 8:17:54 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Retail Investors Are Still Powering This Bull Market

10/9/2025, 9:47:39 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Mark Newton’s Bold Tesla Call (new outlook coming Monday!)

10/8/2025, 6:40:17 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: How AI and the Mag 7 Redefine Investing (Framework Part 3)

10/7/2025, 5:55:05 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee on Bitcoin, AI and the Future of Investing (Framework Part 2)

10/6/2025, 9:05:29 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: The Early Lessons That Shaped My Framework (Part 1)

10/6/2025, 8:01:17 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Why Stocks Can Keep Rallying Even With a Government Shutdown

10/6/2025, 12:53:05 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: The Forecasting Framework Behind His Bold Calls

10/3/2025, 3:18:50 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat Explains Why This Shutdown Might Be Different for Markets

10/3/2025, 3:10:29 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Bold Market Views Through His Investing Principles

10/2/2025, 8:45:01 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat: What’s Next for Large-Cap Crypto?

10/2/2025, 7:23:49 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: The Forecasting Framework Behind His Bold Calls (Part 1)

10/2/2025, 4:59:03 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat: Robinhood Leads, Can Coinbase Catch Up?

10/1/2025, 9:06:08 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Mark Newton Gives a Market Update After ADP Miss and Government Shutdown

10/1/2025, 6:43:22 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat: Why Tokenization Could Reshape the Future of Crypto

9/30/2025, 10:28:09 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Mark Newton: Correction Coming? What It Means for Year-End

9/26/2025, 8:09:34 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Tom Lee's 7 Investing Principles

9/26/2025, 5:15:38 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Mark Newton: Are Pullbacks Just Setting Up a Year-End Rally?

9/26/2025, 1:14:53 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: AI Mania Out of Hand?

9/25/2025, 9:00:42 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Mark Newton: Why Tech Still Leads but Small Caps Are Key

9/24/2025, 7:57:22 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Mark Newton: A Day in the Life of a Technical Strategist

9/24/2025, 5:52:17 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat Gives an Update on Hyperliquid Thesis

9/23/2025, 4:53:49 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Bullish October Outlook: Nvidia, Apple, Ethereum & Small Caps

9/22/2025, 7:10:10 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Fed Cut Sparks Bullish Breakout

9/19/2025, 3:13:27 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Why Fed Cuts Could Fuel Growth Without Inflation

9/18/2025, 8:06:23 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat Crypto Outlook: Stablecoins, Tokenization & What’s Driving the Market

9/16/2025, 6:12:36 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Tom Lee Revisits First Fundstrat Call Plus Post-FOMC Outlook

9/16/2025, 2:38:23 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Fed Cuts Could Spark Big Moves in Stocks & Crypto

9/15/2025, 8:24:13 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Crypto Outlook: BTC, ETH, SOL, Tokenization & Precious Metals

9/15/2025, 7:26:38 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: S&P Tech at Record High — Is AI Still Undervalued?

9/12/2025, 3:34:24 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Why Nvidia Trades Lower Than Walmart & Costco

9/10/2025, 7:00:40 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Is Bitcoin Headed to $200K After Fed Cuts?

9/8/2025, 12:04:07 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee’s Bold September Call

9/5/2025, 8:53:45 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: How Ethereum Could Overtake Bitcoin

9/4/2025, 5:35:42 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat: Tech Underperformance, Fed Cuts & Gold Breakout | What’s Next for Markets?

9/3/2025, 8:46:51 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat: the "September" Effect on the Market

9/3/2025, 1:18:50 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Tech & AI Momentum Far From Over Post-NVDA

8/28/2025, 7:15:40 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: A New Bull Market Until 2035?

8/28/2025, 6:14:50 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: ETH to $60K, Bitcoin to $1M? The Next Crypto Supercycle Explained

8/27/2025, 8:55:08 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Positioning for Nvidia Earnings + Key Fed Decisions

8/27/2025, 12:32:44 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

From WSJ Reporter to Fundstrat Economic Strategist

8/25/2025, 6:38:26 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

$BTC & $ETH: Where do institutions stand?

8/22/2025, 6:42:58 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Dovish Fed, Small Caps, and His ETH Call

8/22/2025, 5:12:45 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

S&P 500 at 7,000? Fundstrat's Tom Lee Explains the Path Into Year-End

8/20/2025, 7:45:33 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat: What’s the Best Risk/Reward Now? Tech Pullback, Precious Metals & Crypto Bottoming

8/20/2025, 7:09:01 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: $ETH pullback—bearish reversal or bullish consolidation?

8/19/2025, 9:34:29 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Why This Is the Most Hated V-Shaped Recovery

8/18/2025, 8:00:17 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Why Retail Won — Are Institutions Still Missing the Bull Market? | P1

8/18/2025, 4:59:58 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat: Retail Sentiment at 3-Month Low — What Could This Mean for the Market?

8/15/2025, 3:33:52 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Why Stocks Can Push Higher | Even Without Big Fed Cuts

8/14/2025, 9:11:31 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Could the New IPO Wave Be a Market Signal?

8/14/2025, 1:48:51 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.