Fundstrat
Fundstrat Crypto Outlook: Stablecoins, Tokenization & What’s Driving the Market
9/16/2025, 6:12:36 PM
Economic Summary
- Crypto is a meaningful alternatives asset class (~$4 trillion total market cap), comparable to mid-size alternative sectors and increasingly included in portfolios.
- Bitcoin functions as a macro asset akin to digital gold (BTC): demand driven by fiat-risk and inflation dynamics, and it behaves cyclically with liquidity conditions.
- Although there are ~50 million tokens, the investable universe is much smaller (roughly 40–100 assets for most investors), underscoring selection and liquidity constraints.
- ETPs (crypto ETFs/ETPs) launched in 2024 have driven large institutional inflows (~$80 billion across the complex), by offering custody, lower effective costs, and easier portfolio integration (Grayscale noted as a major provider).
- Stablecoins (aggregate market cap ~ $290B) already have on-chain transaction volumes surpassing Visa; widespread stablecoin adoption could increase demand for short-term US Treasuries and support broader dollar usage on-chain.
- Tokenization of real-world assets and securities (NASDAQ filing, BlackRock interest) could migrate traditional instruments on-chain, increasing utility and demand for underlying blockchains like ETH and SOL.
Bullish
- ETPs have unlocked institutional flows by solving custody, cost, tax, and estate planning frictions.
- Tokenization and RWAs moving on-chain enable 24/7 settlement, composability, and new liquidity/use cases.
- Stablecoins (~$290B) already exceed Visa transaction volume and could grow to trillions, boosting on-chain dollars.
- Smart-contract platforms (e.g., ETH, SOL) benefit from application revenue and regulatory clarity, offering strong risk-reward.
Bearish
- Liquidity is concentrated: DATs and small-cap tokens lack spot liquidity, limiting scalable DAT expansion beyond top tokens.
- Token proliferation (50 million tokens) creates extreme selection risk and many worthless/low-liquidity projects.
- ETPs/DATs introduce premium/discount and structural risks versus holding spot, adding an extra layer of risk to returns.
- Macro sensitivity: Bitcoin and crypto can lag or be volatile with changing real rates and liquidity conditions.
Bullish tickers
BTCETHSOLGRAYSCALEHYPERLIQUIDBLKBITMINE
Bearish tickers
MSTR
BTC
Bullish
Viewed as digital gold and a macro asset; benefits from institutional ETP inflows and DAT accumulation trends.
Bearish
Liquidity-sensitive and cyclical; can lag gold and be volatile as macro liquidity conditions change.
ETH
Bullish
Smart-contract platform central to tokenization, stablecoin rails, and on-chain real-world asset growth.
Bearish
Faces competition from other L1/L2s and regulatory uncertainty that could affect network economics.
SOL
Bullish
One of the high-growth smart-contract platforms benefiting from application-layer traction and recent outperformance vs. BTC.
Bearish
Network-level competition and technical/regulatory risks could limit adoption.
GRAYSCALE
Bullish
First-mover in crypto ETPs with large AUM; successful legal/ETP push broadened institutional access.
Bearish
As a large ETP/asset manager, faces fee pressure and competition across ETP wrappers and on-chain innovations.
MSTR
Bullish
Large corporate Bitcoin treasury example, demonstrating institutional allocation to BTC via equity vehicles.
Bearish
Digital Asset Treasury exposure introduces premium/discount and consolidation/opco risks for shareholders.
HYPERLIQUID
Bullish
Decentralized perpetual futures exchange generating significant on-chain revenue and buybacks, showing product-market fit.
Bearish
Early-stage protocol competing with centralized exchanges; category and long-term positioning remain uncertain.
BLK
Bullish
BlackRock interest in tokenization signals major institutional validation for on-chain securities and infrastructure.
Bearish
Institutional entrants may move slowly and face regulatory/operational constraints when tokenizing assets.
BITMINE
Bullish
Representative of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) trend; institutional-style treasuries can accelerate adoption and supply consolidation.
Bearish
As a newer DAT-like operator, faces operational and governance risks in running large on-chain treasuries.
People mentioned
Slava RubinZach PandlSean FarrellTom LeeLarry Fink