Fundstrat
Fundstrat’s Bullish October Outlook: Nvidia, Apple, Ethereum & Small Caps
9/22/2025, 7:10:10 PM
Economic Summary
- There is a pronounced bifurcation: technology stocks (e.g., NVDA, AAPL) have driven gains since July while the equal-weight S&P has been roughly flat, implying the broader market must catch up for a healthier advance.
- Small-cap stocks have been outperforming since April and would benefit notably from an expected sequence of Fed rate cuts (speaker expects about five cuts by next summer), as lower rates relieve debt leverage pressures for smaller companies.
- Semiconductor stocks and related ETFs (SMH) have staged a wide recovery with second- and third-tier chip names joining leaders; this breadth is constructive but has left the group looking stretched in the near term.
- Market seasonality (historically weak late-August/September and post-September OPEX weakness) has not materialized; strategist expects only a brief consolidation (3–5 days) before a push higher into October.
Bullish
- Tech-led breakout (NVIDIA, Apple) is driving the market higher.
- Small caps are outperforming and could continue if rate cuts arrive.
- Semiconductor group recovery is broadening beyond the Mag 7.
- Ethereum has upside to 5,500 per strategist view.
Bearish
- Mega-cap tech leadership is concentrated and overbought, making broad sell-offs possible if momentum fades.
- SMH and many semiconductors look stretched; risk of a short-term pullback if investors 'stand too long next to the punch bowl'.
- Seasonal historical weak period (late August/September) could still prompt consolidation despite recent strength.
- Some niche/quantum names are overdone and vulnerable to sharper pullbacks on volatility.
Bullish tickers
NVDAAAPLSMHMUSTXWDCINTCSHOPHOODETH
Bearish tickers
NVDASMHMUAAPLKROTOSHIMSS
NVDA
Bullish
Major breakout that is materially contributing to S&P gains and momentum.
Bearish
Concentration of gains and overbought conditions could trigger meaningful retracement if leadership falters.
AAPL
Bullish
Recently rallied strongly and is a key contributor to market upside.
Bearish
Large weighting makes the market vulnerable if Apple cools off after rapid recent gains.
MU
Bullish
Strong recent performance in memory/data storage names; momentum remains favorable.
Bearish
Has gapped higher recently and could be susceptible to pullbacks after a sharp move.
STX
Bullish
Recovery in data storage names complements broader semiconductor strength.
Bearish
Part of a frothy recovery in storage names that could see near-term profit-taking.
WDC
Bullish
Beneficiary of renewed demand in data storage/tech hardware.
Bearish
Similar storage-related exposure could face mean reversion after big moves.
INTC
Bullish
Noted as being 'brought back to life' amid the semiconductor resurgence.
Bearish
Turnaround narrative may be priced in; momentum could fade if execution lags.
SMH
2 price targets
325330
Bullish
Broad semiconductor breakout; continued trend until clear deterioration.
Bearish
ETF is getting stretched and is vulnerable to a near-term pullback despite strong trend.
SHOP
Bullish
Expected to begin a favorable move into October according to strategist.
Bearish
E‑commerce volatility and prior churn could lead to reversals in the short term.
HOOD
Bullish
Highlighted as part of attractive risk/reward picks for coming months.
Bearish
Platform-specific news/volatility could pressure the name despite broader market strength.
ETH
1 price targets
5500
Bullish
Strategist expects Ethereum to hold above 4,000 and move toward ~5,500.
Bearish
Crypto volatility could push prices below short-term support in turbulent conditions.
KROTOS
Bullish
Mentioned as a longer-held name with potential in the strategist's watch list.
Bearish
Niche/defense and smaller-cap exposures can be under pressure during volatility.
HIMSS
Bullish
Technically appealing with a big base and potential transformative business story.
Bearish
Has been churning and long-term base hasn't yet translated to consistent breakout.
HERS
Bullish
Grouped with HIMSS as technically attractive by the strategist.
INQ
Bullish
On watch lists and mentioned as part of investor interest in quantum/innovative names.
QUBITS
Bullish
Strategist likes quantum exposure and sees pullbacks as potential buying opportunities.
Bearish
Quantum names are described as a bit overdone and under pressure at times.
People mentioned
Mark NewtonCharlesDonald Trump