Fundstrat
Fundstrat’s Mark Newton: Correction Coming? What It Means for Year-End
9/26/2025, 8:09:34 PM
Economic Summary
- Technician view expects a choppier next two months with a likely 5% (maybe 10%) move starting October–November; advisable to buy dips as market may still rally into year-end and early January.
- Short-term technicals show overbought RSI and slightly faltering breadth, limiting upside over the coming weeks and increasing probability of consolidation in October.
- Interest rates and the U.S. dollar are expected to fall into year-end, which historically supports equities and asset prices; however, both may rebound into early next year, posing a headwind.
- Housing: cycles point to a peak next year followed by a roughly two-year cooling/decline, pressured by elevated supply and higher mortgage rates.
- Commodities: crude oil likely has one more leg down to the high $50s before bottoming, then a seasonal and cyclical rebound into 2026; precious metals may peak near term and are good candidates to buy into weakness toward mid-2026.
- Crypto: altcoin strength suggests the rally is in late innings; Mark Newton cites targets of ~130000 for BTC and ~5500 for ETH, with ETH preferred over BTC over the next year.
Bullish
- Continue buying dips; momentum and tech leadership can drive higher into year-end.
- Falling yields and a softer dollar near-term are supportive of equities and risk assets.
- Data storage and AI-related names likely to outperform amid secular demand.
Bearish
- Market is short-term overbought with weakening breadth, raising odds of an October–November pullback.
- Valuation concentration (many names trading >10x price-to-sales) resembles prior market peaks.
- Precious metals and oil likely near short-term peaks and vulnerable to a fall as yields/dollar rebound.
Bullish tickers
STXWDCMSFTAMZNORCLETHBTC
Bearish tickers
PYPLCRM
STX
Bullish
Beneficiary of AI/data-storage demand and outperformer among hardware/storage names.
Bearish
Could be hit in a broad tech pullback despite cyclical benefits.
WDC
Bullish
Likely to benefit from secular data storage demand tied to AI.
Bearish
Vulnerable if cyclical tech weakness emerges.
MSFT
Bullish
Representative AI leader; technical momentum supports further gains.
Bearish
Exposure to any broad tech rotation could pressure shares.
AMZN
Bullish
Large-cap tech momentum and AI/commerce exposure support upside.
Bearish
High-valuation risk if sentiment shifts and momentum fades.
ORCL
Bullish
Example of strong guidance-driven moves; technical breakout leadership noted.
Bearish
Sharp speculative spikes could unwind quickly in a risk-off move.
PYPL
Bullish
Could recover if product positioning improves or AI adoption accelerates.
Bearish
Called out as an example of software names punished for losing AI relevance.
CRM
Bullish
Would benefit if it successfully repositions around AI-driven revenue growth.
Bearish
Example of legacy software names that may underperform if they miss the AI wave.
INTC
Bullish
Could benefit from any cyclical improvement in tech capex or AI hardware demand.
Bearish
At risk in a tech rotation if momentum narrows.
CSCO
Bullish
Network demand from AI and cloud trends supports upside potential.
Bearish
Cyclical downside in a broad tech pullback.
BTC
1 price targets
130000
Bullish
Target cited ~130,000; benefits from renewed crypto interest and macro liquidity tailwinds.
Bearish
Rally may be in later innings; susceptible to trend damage if risk sentiment deteriorates.
ETH
1 price targets
5500
Bullish
Mark favored ETH more than BTC with a ~5,500 target; strong altcoin leadership noted.
Bearish
If altcoin froth peaks, ETH could see sharp volatility and retracement.
People mentioned
Adam TaggartMark NewtonTom LeeWilliam O'NeillAndrew Lo