Fundstrat
Fundstrat’s Mark Newton: Will the S&P 500 Hit 7,000 or Correct First?
10/23/2025, 1:13:13 PM
Economic Summary
- 10-year Treasury yields near 4% are politically and psychologically important; Fundstrat expects yields to pull back to ~3.90% before a year-end bounce, which would help borrowing costs and markets.
- Fed rate cuts are expected (roughly four cuts over the next year), which should be supportive for metals, borrowers, housing, and risk assets.
- U.S. M&A activity surged to its biggest month in 25 years, indicating heavy dealmaking and repositioning even after a 35% market rally.
- Market internals show narrow leadership—technology has rallied strongly while the eco-weighted S&P is flat since July—raising vulnerability to a pullback without broader participation.
- Early signs of stress in private credit and modest junk bond selloffs warrant attention, though the speaker does not interpret them as systemic yet.
- Crude oil supply remains elevated and demand may be softening; technician expects a continued decline into early next year before a potential energy rebound in 2026.
Bullish
- Stick with the uptrend; market and bonds are generally rising.
- Small caps breaking out benefit from falling yields and high leverage dynamics.
- Strong AI spending and recurring tech earnings support continued upside for tech/AI stocks.
- Long-term constructive view on cryptocurrencies, with altcoins and Ethereum favored over Bitcoin.
Bearish
- Expect a correction in November with a possible 15-20% pullback into early next year.
- Market breadth and momentum are weakening; tech leadership is narrow while rest of market lags.
- Signs of stress in private credit and widening junk bond spreads could signal contagion risks.
- Crude oil likely to decline toward low $50s or even $40s, pressuring energy sector earnings.
Bullish tickers
ETHSOLXRPBTCSMALL CAPS
Bearish tickers
OILJUNK BONDS
BTC
2 price targets
130000135000
Bullish
Three-year crypto bull run intact; expects a final surge into January and a long-term bullish view on cryptocurrencies.
Bearish
May lose appeal in the coming cycle and could experience a corrective phase; use future peaks to reduce crypto exposure.
ETH
Bullish
Preferred over Bitcoin for the coming years due to tokenization, merger of crypto and AI, and stronger longer-term utility.
Bearish
Could face cyclic weakness next year if crypto four-year cycle reasserts and a down year in crypto occurs.
SOL
Bullish
Altcoins like Solana could pick up speed when Bitcoin wanes and speculation broadens.
XRP
Bullish
Listed among altcoins that may outperform Bitcoin as cycles shift and speculation rotates.
OIL
Bullish
Potential cyclical rebound in energy expected in early-to-mid 2026; time to buy may be February 2026.
Bearish
Technically set for a slow descent to low $50s or possibly $40s into early next year due to high output and waning demand.
JUNK BONDS
Bearish
Early sell-off and widening spreads versus treasuries are a warning sign of stress in private credit markets.
People mentioned
Mark NewtonTom LeeScott BesantVictorDonald TrumpTony