Fundstrat
Fundstrat’s Q4 Crypto View: BTC $130–160K? ETH Leads?
11/3/2025, 10:32:52 PM
Economic Summary
- Policy stance emphasizes rebalancing trade via tariffs, reducing deficits, and running the economy hotter through easier monetary policy, which supports liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto and gold.
- A weaker U.S. dollar regime (via lower rates or global flows) tends to be bullish for Bitcoin (BTC) with a 90-day lag relationship observed historically.
- Central-bank liquidity is a core input: the TGA-driven reserve drawdown has been a recent drag, but QT ending and a rebuilt Treasury account point to a more liquidity-positive Q4 for risk assets.
- Gold has been a preferred risk-adjusted debasement trade and often leads Bitcoin in rolling 60-day returns; central banks buying gold for dollar diversification strengthens that theme.
- Market structure signals: leverage resets (large drops in BTC open interest) have historically been good buying opportunities, while sentiment measures (Fear & Greed neutral) suggest upside can accelerate from neutral conditions.
- Derivative flow shows puts trading richer than calls across tenors, implying limited market confidence in substantial near-term upside despite seasonally positive Q4 dynamics.
Bullish
- Dollar weakness and lower rates are supportive for crypto and gold.
- Rebuilding central-bank liquidity (QT ending, TGA no longer rising) should be liquidity-positive into Q4.
- Gold-to-Bitcoin rotational dynamics could drive substantial BTC upside if historical ratios reassert.
Bearish
- Put-call skew is positive, indicating higher demand for downside protection and limited near-term upside conviction.
- Recent liquidity drawdown (TGA refill) and months of sideways trading raise the risk of continued muted returns.
- Leverage resets and >25% drops in Bitcoin open interest historically accompany volatile drawdowns.
Bullish tickers
BTCETHSOLGOLD
Bearish tickers
BTCETH
BTC
2 price targets
160000175000
Bullish
Benefits from a weaker dollar, potential rotation from gold, and improving liquidity (QT ending, TGA stabilization) supporting upside toward ~160k+.
Bearish
Sentiment neutral and positive put-call skew; recent liquidity drain and leverage resets increase downside risk and short-term volatility.
ETH
Bullish
Improved macro liquidity and risk-on flows that favor crypto generally should support ETH alongside BTC strength.
Bearish
Sideways trading and demand for downside protection could limit ETH's near-term outperformance.
SOL
Bullish
If BTC leadership resumes and liquidity returns, SOL could benefit from rotational flows into majors and select alts.
Bearish
Market-wide liquidity constraints and derisking can pressure altcoins like SOL during sideways or risk-off periods.
GOLD
Bullish
Central banks buying gold for dollar diversification and its preferred debasement-trade status support gold as a safe-haven/liquidity play.
Bearish
A potential short-term spot decline (~5% scenario) could trigger flow into Bitcoin, pressuring gold relative performance.
People mentioned
Mark NewtonSean