Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: A New Bull Market Until 2035?

Name: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: A New Bull Market Until 2035?
Uploaded: 2025-08-28T18:14:50Z
Description: Fundstrat's Tom Lee joins The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost to share his outlook on markets, demographics, the Fed, and why he believes we may be at the start of a decade-long bull run into 2035. From his bold calls at J.P. Morgan to launching Fundstrat and building one of the fastest-

8/28/2025, 6:14:50 PM

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Economic Summary

The speaker argues we are in a new bull market that could extend to 2035, driven largely by demographics as millennials peak and inherit wealth, increasing equity exposure.
Fed independence is critical: markets react instantly to Fed signals, and a non-independent Fed would spook markets; the speaker expects Powell to serve his term.
Government debt is a structural risk, but offsets include large under-valued US public assets and potential strengthening of dollar dominance over decades.
The relationship between nominal yields and equity P/E is dynamic: below ~2% P/E can fall; between ~2–6% higher yields can coincide with rising P/Es; above ~6% P/Es likely compress.
Policy shocks (Fed ending liquidity) and commodity spikes are primary top risks, while excess speculation/margin debt are warning signs of a speculative top.
Structural changes (AI, blockchain) centered in the US could boost the financial sector toward a larger share of the S&P and benefit healthcare.

Bullish

Demographic tailwinds (millennials and Gen Z entering prime earning years) should boost equity allocation.
Structural tech shifts (AI, blockchain) could re-rate financials and boost healthcare sector growth.
Markets may positively surprise due to prevailing investor skepticism and recency bias.
VIX pattern (above 60 then closing below 30) historically signals market bottoms.

Bearish

Loss of Fed independence or an active policy shock could end liquidity and trigger a bear market.
Long-term yields rising into the 5–6% range would force P/E deratings and hurt equities.
Large budget deficits and rising debt-to-GDP could crowd out private-sector spending.
A commodity shock (extreme oil spike) could depress consumer spending and trigger a downturn.
A surge in excess speculation and margin debt above prior highs could indicate a market top.

Bullish tickers

TSLAPLTR

TSLA

Bullish

Cited as an example of a company investors should understand and hold through macro noise; implies long-term conviction.

PLTR

Bullish

Mentioned alongside Tesla as a company investors should buy and hold once they understand its business and prospects.

JPM

Bullish

Referenced as the speaker's former employer (JP Morgan); no explicit investment call given.

People mentioned

TomWilfredMark NewtonJeremy GranthamRay DalioJerome Powell