Fundstrat
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: ETH to $60K, Bitcoin to $1M? The Next Crypto Supercycle Explained
8/27/2025, 8:55:08 PM
Economic Summary
- Crypto has shifted from retail-dominated demand to meaningful institutional and sovereign buyers, which could bound downside and change volatility dynamics for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
- The historical four-year cycle tied to Bitcoin halvings and reflexive market patterns may be less reliable as institutional flows and cross-asset correlations evolve; BTC may also diverge from equity markets.
- Global liquidity and interest-rate regimes remain major drivers of crypto performance—central bank easing correlated with BTC rallies—but secular trends like AI and broader financial innovation create additional, non-liquidity-driven demand.
- Macro structural issues (large global debt pools) could be managed via novel financial plumbing: stablecoins acting as treasury buyers and CBDCs enabling more direct monetary transfers, which would materially change asset demand and yield-curve mechanics.
Bullish
- Institutional and sovereign purchases may create a persistent price floor for Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin/Ethereum adoption as digital store-of-value and financial backbone supports allocation.
- Stablecoins and potential CBDCs integrate crypto into traditional finance, increasing demand.
- AI and financial innovation expand real-world crypto use cases and secular growth drivers.
Bearish
- Crypto could face another deep drawdown (70-90% historically) in a cycle downturn.
- Regulatory hostility and policy uncertainty in the US may limit institutional capital.
- Altcoins historically suffer much larger losses than Bitcoin in bear markets.
Bullish tickers
BTCETH
Bearish tickers
BTCETH
BTC
3 price targets
220006600025000
Bullish
Institutional and sovereign buying, digital-gold adoption, and integration via stablecoins/CBDCs create structural demand and downside support.
Bearish
Historically vulnerable to large cyclical drawdowns (70-90%) and sensitive to regulatory or macro shocks.
ETH
Bullish
Viewed as a financial backbone with strong use-case adoption, benefiting from institutional interest and DeFi activity.
Bearish
Altcoins including ETH have historically experienced deeper selloffs than Bitcoin during crypto winters.
META
Bullish
Mentioned as an example of a high-quality company whose operations would be hampered by excessive debt.
Bearish
High leverage or debt burdens can constrain corporate decision-making and profitability under stress.
JPM
Bullish
Historically produced strategists who pushed early crypto theses, showing institutional thought leadership can shift over time.
Bearish
Large institutions were initially skeptical of crypto and internal constraints can limit early advocacy.
People mentioned
Tom LeeMarioWadeSean FarrellJerome PowellDonald TrumpRaoul PalDavid Bailey