Fundstrat
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Gold Peaking & Crypto Ready to Run
10/24/2025, 8:49:13 PM
Economic Summary
- Equities have outperformed year-to-date (S&P up >15%); Tom Lee's base case expects at least a further ~4% gain into year-end, implying the S&P would top 7,000, and he sees potential for up to 10% given current momentum.
- The Fed is expected to begin cutting later this year after a long pause; Lee notes such prolonged pauses occurred only twice in the past 50 years (1998 and 2024), which supports a bullish outlook for risk assets.
- Crypto experienced a major deleveraging on October 10 tied to rising US-China tariff tensions, but open interest for Bitcoin and Ethereum sits at record lows while technicals are turning positive, implying a potential rally into year-end.
- Gold may be short-term peaking per technical analysis (cup-and-handle), and a cooling in gold could free up flows into equities and crypto, improving market breadth.
Bullish
- Federal Reserve cuts expected this year, supporting additional S&P gains.
- Bitcoin acted like a store of value despite a historic deleveraging event.
- Ethereum L1/L2 activity and stablecoin growth argue for price upside.
- JPMorgan open to using crypto as collateral signals institutional adoption.
Bearish
- Tariff and US-China trade tensions triggered a large crypto liquidation event.
- Government shutdown and tariff headaches add macro risk to markets.
- Crypto still facing lingering ripple effects from the October 10 deleveraging.
Bullish tickers
BTCETHJPM
Bearish tickers
BTCETH
BTC
Bullish
Despite the liquidation, Bitcoin fell only modestly, suggesting store-of-value characteristics; technicals and low open interest point to a potential rally.
Bearish
A historic deleveraging/liquidation on October 10 caused sharp stress and lingering ripple effects across the Bitcoin market.
ETH
Bullish
Strong underlying activity on L1 and L2 and rising stablecoin usage support a material upside once technicals catch up.
Bearish
Ethereum was hit by the same deleveraging event and price has yet to fully reflect recent stresses.
JPM
Bullish
JPMorgan's openness to using crypto as collateral is a sign of increasing institutional acceptance of digital assets.
People mentioned
Tom LeeJohnMark Newton