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Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: How Ethereum Could Overtake Bitcoin

9/4/2025, 5:35:42 PM
Economic Summary
  • Bitcoin (BTC) is framed as a store-of-value with ~95% mined and only ~5% of institutions holding it; if institutional and government reserves scale toward gold’s network value (~$22T), BTC price could rise toward ~$1.2M.
  • Ethereum (ETH) is positioned as the blockchain infrastructure for tokenization: smart contracts, the EVM, and major stablecoins are largely on Ethereum, and regulatory green lights (the “Genius Act” in the transcript) and bank adoption could drive large protocol-level value.
  • Macro liquidity and policy matter: Bitcoin tracks global monetary liquidity (M2) and is sensitive to Fed easing or interference; risk-off periods hurt both BTC and equities, while AI adoption increases demand for on-chain proof/token solutions, favoring Ethereum.
Bullish
  • Bitcoin's fixed supply and low institutional ownership imply large upside if institutions and governments accumulate (potential ~$1.2M target).
  • Ethereum is being chosen as the blockchain infrastructure for tokenizing financial products, stablecoins, and Wall Street rails.
  • Ethereum benefits from AI integration and proof-of-origin/token needs, expanding on-chain utility and demand for ETH.
Bearish
  • Short-term Fed interference or risk-off sentiment could depress Bitcoin and equities.
  • Proliferation of new cryptocurrencies undermines the limited-supply store-of-value thesis.
  • Regulatory uncertainty and government desire to control monetary systems may limit crypto growth.
Bullish tickers
BTCETH
Bearish tickers
BTCETH
BTC
1 price targets
1200000
Bullish
Fixed supply, limited existing institutional ownership, and potential to substitute gold as a reserve asset could drive BTC to much higher prices.
Bearish
Short-term Fed interference and risk-off sentiment could hurt price; proliferation of alternative cryptocurrencies challenges store-of-value narrative.
ETH
Bullish
Chosen by Wall Street for tokenization, home to most stablecoins, and positioned to power AI-proof-of-origin tokens and layer-two expansion.
Bearish
Value depends on continued real-world adoption, regulatory clarity, and overcoming crypto tribalism and competition from other chains.
People mentioned
Wilfred FrostTom LeeJamie DimonRaoul PaulBesson