Fundstrat
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee on Bitcoin, AI and the Future of Investing (Framework Part 2)
10/6/2025, 9:05:29 PM
Economic Summary
- Major bear markets tend to be retracements of the prior bull market rather than time-driven events, so bottoms are driven by how much prior gains unwind, not calendar duration.
- Pre-bottom indicators (e.g., ISM, employment) typically lag; employment often recovers only after the market bottom, meaning fundamentals follow sentiment-driven market turns.
- Demographics matter: the increasing share of 30–50 year olds in the U.S. since 2009 supports credit demand, consumption, investment, and innovation, underpinning a bullish equity outlook.
- AI and related capex likely still have runway — current evidence does not indicate system-wide saturation, so further investment in compute and data centers may be warranted.
- Bitcoin (BTC) exhibits strong network effects; a simple two-factor model (wallets and activity) explained its historical rise and supports sizable upside potential according to the speaker's prior work.
Bullish
- Demographic tailwind: rising 30–50 cohort supports credit, consumption, and innovation.
- AI-driven productivity gains justify fresh capital allocation and long equity cycle.
- Bitcoin (BTC) as a network asset with strong wallet/activity adoption momentum.
Bearish
- Potential overbuild in data centers/chips could cause large write-offs if demand saturates.
- Bond-market dominated pessimism can keep equities depressed despite recovery signs.
- Retail investor scars from past crashes reduce sustained participation and amplify sell-offs.
Bullish tickers
BTCAMZNAAL
Bearish tickers
SCHWLEAP WIRELESS
BTC
1 price targets
25000
Bullish
Network-driven asset with wallet/activity adoption model explaining growth; highlighted as a top idea.
Bearish
Early skepticism and association with illicit use; institutional backlash and claims of no tangible value.
AMZN
Bullish
Example of tech-driven markets that can produce outsized returns despite widespread skepticism.
Bearish
Seen historically as overvalued by some during the tech boom, causing many to miss gains.
AAL
Bullish
Example where equity survived restructuring, illustrating value can emerge after bankruptcy.
Bearish
Airline sector cyclicality and bankruptcy risk in downturns.
JPM
Bullish
Institutional insights from the firm helped identify post-crisis opportunities and distressed value.
Bearish
Internal tensions between bond and equity desks reflected extreme caution during recoveries.
SCHW
Bullish
Could benefit if retail participation rebounds, though previously underperformed.
Bearish
Retail broker shares traded poorly during periods of low retail engagement.
LEAP WIRELESS
Bullish
Spectrum value unlocked in reorganization created large upside for early distressed buyers.
Bearish
Distressed bonds and bankruptcy risk; originally traded at deep discount.
People mentioned
Jerry MadiganEddie LampertAbijet ChakaortiEric BinsteinPeteChris FlaniganJohn NormandDan TapieroMark YuscoJohn BurbankWarren BuffettSatya NadellaDonald Trump