Fundstrat

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Positioning for Nvidia Earnings + Key Fed Decisions

Name: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: Positioning for Nvidia Earnings + Key Fed Decisions
Uploaded: 2025-08-27T00:32:44Z
Description: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee joins CNBC’s Closing Bell to discuss how investors should position ahead of Nvidia’s earnings tomorrow and what to watch from the Fed’s upcoming decisions. He shares why Nvidia remains central to the AI trade, why financials may be the next big beneficiaries of AI and blockchain.

8/27/2025, 12:32:44 AM

View channel Watch on YouTube

Economic Summary

AI adoption is still viewed as early innings despite recent hype; public investors have a limited number of direct AI plays (e.g., NVDA), which concentrates capital and can amplify volatility if a few names misstep.
Large financial institutions (J.P. Morgan - JPM, Goldman Sachs - GS) are positioned as second-order AI beneficiaries and could see expanded margins and multiples from AI adoption and blockchain-enabled efficiencies.
Markets are pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut likely on September 17 (panel consensus ~25 bps), which would support cyclicals and broader risk assets but remains contingent on incoming jobs and inflation (PCE, CPI) data.
The president's move against Fed Governor Lisa Cook raises concerns about central bank independence; the Fed signaled it will defer to the courts, but any erosion of independence poses a systemic market-risk if it influences policy decisions.
Macroeconomic indicators matter: ISM has been below 50 for 29 months, so an ISM rebound combined with Fed easing could produce a better-than-expected Q4, but data surprises could change the cut-size debate (25 vs 50bps).

Bullish

AI remains early innings; NVIDIA is a critical long-term structural play.
Financials should re-rate as AI and blockchain boost profitability (JPM, GS).
A Fed rate cut in September (likely ~25bps) would be a market tailwind.

Bearish

AI concentration risk: a small pool of public AI plays can create bubble-like pressure on leaders.
NVIDIA faces very high expectations and China-revenue uncertainty that could drive big negative reactions.
Threats to Fed independence (firing of Lisa Cook) could prompt risk-off and higher market volatility.
Signs of GenAI model issues and hiring slowdowns (e.g., Meta) could damp investor enthusiasm.

Bullish tickers

NVDAJPMGS

Bearish tickers

NVDAMETA

NVDA

Bullish

Seen as a central AI infrastructure play and structurally important company; long-term thesis remains intact despite short-term noise.

Bearish

High valuation and recent uneven post-report reactions; China revenue recovery is uncertain and could swing guidance materially.

JPM

Bullish

Likely to benefit from AI and blockchain adoption, producing visible earnings growth and potential multiple expansion.

Bearish

Rate sensitivity and exposure to lending spreads means adverse rate moves or economic shocks could hurt earnings.

Bullish

Should benefit from AI and blockchain-driven revenue opportunities and may re-rate toward higher multiples.

Bearish

Cyclicality and rate dependence could pressure performance in a risk-off scenario.