Fundstrat
Mark Newton: Will Tech Earnings and Fed Cuts Push Stocks Even Higher?
10/27/2025, 2:41:17 PM
Economic Summary
- U.S.-China trade optimism from a high-level meeting—potential soybean purchases, rare-earth export control relief, fentanyl and TikTok deals—would reduce trade tensions and support markets.
- Fed rate cuts are already largely priced in via Fed Fund Futures, with market expectations of about two cuts by year-end and possibly more next year, which underpins risk asset performance.
- This week is data- and central-bank-heavy (BOC, ECB, BOJ, Fed) along with major tech earnings, making it one of the most important market weeks of the year for direction.
- The rally is narrow: equal-weight S&P has been flat for months while cap-weighted tech strength has driven indices higher, so breadth and financial sector participation are needed for a durable advance.
- Technicals remain supportive overall, but Mark Newton expects a 3%–5% consolidation in November rather than a 10% correction; such pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities.
Bullish
- Mega-cap tech breakouts (AAPL, TSLA, NVDA) could drive further gains.
- Fed rate cuts are largely priced in, supporting risk assets.
- Earnings have been strong and the economy remains on solid footing.
Bearish
- Rally is narrowly concentrated in mega-cap tech and vulnerable to a pullback if leadership weakens.
- Weakness from Alphabet (GOOGL) or other MAG7 names could spark a temporary market decline.
- A 3%–5% consolidation in November is likely as the market digests strong gains this year.
Bullish tickers
AAPLTSLANVDA
Bearish tickers
GOOGLAMZNNFLX
AAPL
Bullish
Recent breakout in Apple is a positive technical signal contributing to the MAG7 rebound.
Bearish
If the tech leadership rotation falters, AAPL could see a retracement from extended levels.
TSLA
Bullish
Tesla has shown breakout action and is helping lead the tech-driven market rally.
Bearish
Extended tech strength reversal could pressure Tesla shares during a MAG7 pullback.
NVDA
Bullish
Regaining levels above 195 is viewed as a very positive technical development for NVDA.
Bearish
Nvidia is extended; any earnings or sentiment slip could produce sharp volatility.
AMZN
Bullish
U.S. market strength and tech leadership should support Amazon over the medium term.
Bearish
Amazon is nowhere near prior highs and may lag if broader tech momentum fades.
NFLX
Bullish
Netflix could benefit if consumer discretionary continues to recover alongside tech.
Bearish
Netflix remains well below all-time highs and could underperform during narrow rallies.
GOOGL
Bullish
Strong results from Alphabet would help stabilize mega-cap leadership and reduce downside risk.
Bearish
Any weakness out of Alphabet could trigger a temporary pullback across MAG7 and the broader market.
People mentioned
Mark NewtonKristenDonald TrumpXi Jinping