Fundstrat
Tom Lee Revisits First Fundstrat Call Plus Post-FOMC Outlook
9/16/2025, 2:38:23 PM
Economic Summary
- The market is pricing roughly 2.7 rate cuts by year-end versus the Federal Reserve's guidance for two cuts, creating a dovish backdrop but a source of potential disappointment if cuts are fewer.
- A proposal (from President Trump on Truth Social) to shift public companies from quarterly to semiannual reporting is argued to reduce short-termism and reporting costs, but could lower transparency and discourage public listings.
- Historical analogies (Sept 1998 and Sept 2024) suggest Fed cuts have favored Nasdaq and crypto performance; upcoming data (retail sales, NAHB, used vehicle index) and the FOMC decision will be key catalysts.
Bullish
- Pent-up demand, repaired household and corporate balance sheets, and attractive relative valuations support multi-year equity gains.
- Anticipated rate cuts (and a 25 bp near-term move) are dovish and should boost risk assets, especially tech and crypto.
- Low investor conviction and prior post-cut leadership (Nasdaq, crypto) point to potential outperformance for growth/crypto assets.
Bearish
- Removing quarterly reporting could reduce transparency and make public markets less attractive.
- Market already pricing ~2.7 rate cuts versus the Fed's two; disappointment could trigger downside.
- If private firms prefer staying private to avoid reporting, IPO supply and public liquidity may decline.
Bullish tickers
QQQBTCETH
QQQ
Bullish
Nasdaq-style leadership historically outperforms after Fed cuts; dovish policy supports tech ETFs like QQQ.
Bearish
Could be hurt if transparency changes reduce public-market participation or if rate-cut expectations are unmet.
BTC
Bullish
Historically outperformed after Fed easing; likely to benefit from dovish policy and risk-on flows.
Bearish
Crypto could be volatile if risk-on sentiment reverses or if regulation/market structure concerns emerge.
ETH
Bullish
Likely to benefit from broader crypto outperformance in a post-cut, risk-on environment.
Bearish
Similar volatility and regulatory risks as other crypto assets could weigh on price.
GRANNY SHOTS ETF
Bullish
Launched in 2024 with rapid asset accumulation ($2.6B AUM) and strong reviews, indicating strong investor demand.
Bearish
No explicit risks discussed; as a recently launched ETF, could face performance or flow volatility.
FONDSTRAT
Bullish
Founder noted a successful 11-year evolution and growth into a large research/asset management platform.
Bearish
No direct bearish comments; as a research firm, subject to industry competition and market cycles.
FS INSIGHT
Bullish
Has expanded the audience with 11,000 subscribers and broader public-facing research.
Bearish
No direct bearish comments in transcript.
People mentioned
Donald Trump