Future Investing
Amazon Earnings BEATS, Reddit & Coinbase Follow! | Tech Frenzy
10/30/2025, 10:42:23 PM
Economic Summary
- Amazon (AMZN) reported AWS growth around 20% year-over-year with improving AWS operating margin (~34.6%), a $200B-ish backlog and plans to double AWS capacity by 2027, implying sustained cloud-driven revenue and capex intensity that benefits infrastructure and chip suppliers.
- Big tech capex is materially increasing (Amazon alone ~ $35B capex cited), which supports strong demand for data-center chips and GPUs, benefiting NVIDIA (NVDA) and potentially AMD (AMD) if it converts partner deals into revenue.
- Reddit showed strong monetization: advertising growth ~74% YoY, international revenue growth (~74%), rising ARPU (US and international), and user growth, indicating an improving ad business and higher monetization per user (ticker: REDDIT).
- Coinbase (COIN) saw large institutional trading volumes and substantial assets on platform with record stablecoin and staking-related revenue streams, though institutional take rates are far lower than consumer take rates, compressing transaction margins.
- BMNR is effectively a vehicle holding and buying Ethereum; its equity value tracks ETH price and will suffer in a crypto downturn, but could benefit significantly if ETH appreciates and staking/monetization ramps.
Bullish
- AMZN: AWS reacceleration driving revenue, margins, and backlog growth
- REDDIT: strong ad revenue (high double-digits) and rising ARPU/user engagement
- NVDA: continued demand for AI chips from cloud and capex spending
- COIN: rising institutional revenue and assets under custody boosting fees
Bearish
- BMNR is highly sensitive to Ethereum price declines; equity could fall with ETH
- AMD must convert partnerships into real revenue or face downside pressure
- Overreactions around mega-cap earnings can reverse quickly after initial moves
- Reddit's momentum could stall if ad monetization or user growth slows
Bullish tickers
AMZNREDDITNVDACOIN
Bearish tickers
BMNRAMDREDDIT
AMZN
Bullish
AWS reaccelerating with strong backlog, margin improvement, and multi-year capacity expansion.
Bearish
Exposure to macro or retail slowdowns could pressure non-AWS segments; no buybacks/dividends yet.
REDDIT
Bullish
Robust advertising growth (~74% YoY), rising ARPU and expanding international daily active users.
Bearish
Highly dependent on ad momentum; a slowdown in ad spending or ARPU could hurt returns.
BMNR
Bullish
Holds and accumulates Ethereum with plan to stake at target levels; large upside if ETH rallies.
Bearish
Concentrated crypto exposure: if Ethereum collapses, BMNR equity could follow down sharply.
NVDA
Bullish
Direct beneficiary of cloud/AI capex and strong demand for GPUs and custom chips.
Bearish
Competitive risks and execution missteps on new chips could dent expectations.
AMD
Bullish
Potential upside if it secures measurable purchases from large cloud customers and gains share.
Bearish
Needs to prove partnerships convert into recurring revenue; otherwise downside risk persists.
COIN
Bullish
Rising institutional revenue, higher assets on platform, and strong stablecoin/staking related revenue.
Bearish
Low institutional take rates limit revenue per dollar of volume despite huge volumes.
SOFI
Bullish
Highlighted by Blue Owl as having high-quality originations; seen as well-run in credit selection.
Bearish
Exposure to credit market dynamics could weigh if underwriting weakens.
RKT
Bullish
Potentially attractive if mortgage rate cuts materialize and origination volumes rise.
Bearish
Mortgage/fintech competition and rate moves could hamper growth.
OPEN
Bullish
Strategy to combine home-buying and selling services could create synergies if executed.
Bearish
Home-buying consolidation aspirations face execution and margin risk.
AAPL
Bullish
Fundamental strength but short-term dip noted; remains a mega-cap leader.
Bearish
Near-term share price volatility and profit-taking after highs.
MSTR
Bullish
Crypto accumulation narrative can restore investor confidence when holdings revalue.
Bearish
Volatile exposure to crypto grosses up balance-sheet unrealized gains/losses.
HOOD
Bullish
Benefits indirectly from stronger crypto institutional flows and custody demand.
Bearish
Crypto fee and trading revenue sensitivity to volatile volumes.
DLO
Bullish
Included in host's portfolio as a growth fintech exposure.
Bearish
Emerging market and execution risk in payments business.
FOUR
Bullish
Seen as a core holding for fintech and payment processing exposure.
Bearish
Payments volatility and merchant adoption risks.
WOLF
Bullish
Long-term benefit from increased chip and power semiconductor demand.
Bearish
Cyclical semiconductor/materials demand can hurt near-term performance.
BAM
Bullish
Valued for alternative asset exposure and real-estate funds.
Bearish
Large diversified conglomerates can lag tech for returns and are outside host focus.
People mentioned
TannerEvanSteveKathy WoodWarren BuffettTim SweeneyPaulSunnyTevisNed Flanders