Future Investing
Analysts are WRONG about SoFi! My 2026 Predictions
9/25/2025, 5:42:05 PM
Economic Summary
- SOFI forecasts roughly 3.45 million new member adds in 2025, implying ~34% YoY member growth and about 5 million new products at ~1.46 products per member; Galileo accounts projected ~9 million (≈5% growth).
- The presenter expects 2025 revenue of about $3.5 billion (≈31.6% growth), adjusted EBITDA to pass $1 billion, net income of $443 million (~12% margin), and EPS of $0.38 (assuming 1.256B shares).
- For 2026 management assumptions include ~1.1M new member adds per quarter (32% member growth), ~36% product growth (1.5 products per member), technology revenue just over 20%, lending ~25%, and financial-services growth near 44%.
- Long-term to 2030 management targets 50 million members and three products per user; the presenter models conservative revenue-per-product growth and forecasts EPS rising through ~$2.66 by 2030 with analysts projecting EBITDA margins approaching ~40% and net income margin ~25%.
- Valuation context: premium FinTech peers trade roughly 30–40x PE, hyper-growth FinTechs 50–60x; using 40x–50x multiples on projected EPS yields implied near-term price targets (SOFI ~$15–$19 for the 2025 EPS scenario).
Bullish
- Management has historically met many long-term targets outside the tech segment.
- 2026 is expected to re-accelerate growth with strong lending and home-loan opportunities.
- Analysts see substantial margin expansion potential (EBITDA to ~40%), supporting strong EPS growth.
- Aggressive member and product-growth targets could drive meaningful revenue and earnings upside if achieved.
Bearish
- SoFi has not yet proven it can reach management's 50 million member target, making long-term forecasts speculative.
- The company's technology platform has underperformed guidance, creating execution risk for the tech revenue thesis.
- Expanding into lower-FICO, lower-income segments could reduce average revenue per user and pressure unit economics.
- Long-range forecasts become increasingly uncertain; multi-year assumptions may be overly optimistic and sensitive to macro rates.
Bullish tickers
SOFI
Bearish tickers
SOFI
SOFI
2 price targets
1519
Bullish
Management has hit many prior targets, lending/home loans could accelerate growth, and margin expansion (EBITDA to ~40%) supports strong multi-year EPS upside.
Bearish
Key risks include unproven execution toward the 50M-member goal, an underperforming technology platform, and potential ARPU decline from lower-quality member growth.
People mentioned
Anthony NotoDevin Ryan