Future Investing
Analysts Overlook This Multibagger Growth Stock | Tech Frenzy
9/27/2025, 12:47:25 AM
Economic Summary
- Shift4 (FOUR) trades at a forward P/E near 13.3x and current reported PE around 29x after a pullback, with a free cash flow yield the host cites near 7% and an elevated buyback rate improving shareholder yield.
- Analyst coverage still shows upside for FOUR (consensus/notes referenced around $110), while the presenter argues fair value could be $100–$200 based on sustained high growth and market share expansion.
- NVDA (NVDA) benefits from an energy/performance bottleneck in data centers, allowing pricing power and a wide performance gap versus competitors, which supports strong AI-driven demand.
- Host highlights M&A (Global Blue, GiveX) and international expansion as strategic drivers for FOUR, enabling new product attachments (currency exchange, retail receipts) and access to luxury and cross-border travel flows.
Bullish
- Shift4 (FOUR) dominates payments in hospitality/stadiums with strong cross-sell and SaaS-like product.
- FOUR shows high free cash flow, aggressive buybacks, and low stock-based compensation.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) has a dominant perf-per-watt moat making it the preferred AI chip supplier.
- AppLovin (APP) received an upgraded analyst price target and large upside cases from UBS.
Bearish
- Leadership turnover and CEO distraction create execution and governance uncertainty for Shift4 (FOUR).
- Acquisition of lower-margin Global Blue may compress overall margins and integration risk for Shift4.
- Market reaction to CEO's NASA nomination and political controversy drove a sharp selloff.
- Exposure to trade/tariff issues and delisting risks for China-exposed names (BIDU, BABA).
Bullish tickers
FOURNVDAAPP
Bearish tickers
FOURTTDBIDUBABA
FOUR
4 price targets
110100150200
Bullish
Market leader in hospitality/stadiums with strong end-to-end payments volume, high free cash flow, low stock-based compensation, aggressive buybacks, and cross-sell potential from acquisitions.
Bearish
Concerns around founder stepping back, CFO transition, and the large Global Blue acquisition that may lower margins and pose integration risk.
APP
3 price targets
5408101000
Bullish
UBS raised price target and named AppLovin a top pick, citing a sizable upside case.
Bearish
No major negatives detailed in transcript beyond normal execution/valuation risks.
NVDA
Bullish
Dominant performance-per-watt advantage in AI GPUs gives pricing power and preferential demand amid data-center energy constraints.
Bearish
Possible concern about AI-related froth and very high market expectations may imply bubble risk.
TOST
Bullish
Strong position in restaurants but carries a premium multiple versus peers.
Bearish
Described as a much higher multiple compared with Shift4; more expensive valuation.
SQ
Bearish
Square/Block is not growing as quickly as Shift4 according to the host.
SHOP
Bullish
Used as a comparison for software-plus-payments functionality; Shift4 aspires to similar software value-add.
ADYEN
Bullish
Mentioned as a peer comparison in payments.
PYPL
Bullish
Used as a valuation comparator; price-to-free-cash-flow comparisons discussed.
GLOBAL BLUE
Bullish
Adds cross-border currency, luxury retail, and tax-free receipt capabilities enabling new customer attachments and international expansion.
Bearish
Acquisition represents a major change in Shift4's strategy and introduces lower-margin retail/luxury business risks.
GIVEX
Bullish
Acquisition strengthens Shift4's gift card and loyalty capabilities, supporting product attachment.
STARLINK
Bullish
Mentioned as a customer example helping Shift4 expand payment processing into new international markets.
TTD
Bearish
Host expressed worry and reduced exposure previously; implied execution/valuation concerns.
BIDU
Bullish
Mentioned as attractively valued by some long-term investors in chat.
Bearish
Geopolitical/trade/delisting risks noted for China-exposed stocks.
BABA
Bullish
Noted as cheap relative to US peers by some investors cited in chat.
Bearish
Same China geopolitical/delisting and trade concerns; implied higher risk.
CGC
Bullish
Recounted as an early successful holding that got the host into investing.
AAPL
Bullish
Mentioned briefly re: Apple developing a ChatGPT-like iPhone app and Siri overhaul.
People mentioned
Jared IsaacmanDonald TrumpElon MuskTaylor LauberChris CruzTevisHowardRoyTannerChamathPeter LynchRay DalioJustin Trudeau