Future Investing
Fed Rates Are Cutting, What You Need To Know | Tech Frenzy
9/17/2025, 2:02:31 AM
Economic Summary
- SoFi (SOFI) showed a dramatic quarter-over-quarter uptick in search and website activity—particularly for Invest, loans, and credit cards—pointing to a blowout Q3; management may now dial back marketing to focus on margins, implying near-term growth moderation but improved unit economics.
- Historically, Fed rate cuts with the S&P near record highs have preceded additional 12-month gains (the speaker cites a study showing 100% of such prior instances led to new highs), so incoming rate cuts are viewed as broadly bullish for equity markets and especially positive for loan-originating fintechs.
- A policy shift toward semi-annual reporting (like the EU) would reduce transparency for retail investors; the speaker argues quarterly disclosure and frequent company communications benefit retail and reduce fraud/missed expectations.
- AI infrastructure capex is accelerating global demand for GPUs and data-center buildouts (NVIDIA/NVDA referenced), with governments and large cloud/AI players adding hundreds of thousands of GPUs, supporting long-term hardware and cloud providers.
Bullish
- SOFI: hockey-stick growth in Invest, loans, and credit-card searches; loan platform acceleration.
- Rate cuts historically coincide with market new highs and should boost loan demand.
- NVDA: dominant AI data-center position with strong customer commitments and expanding CUDA ecosystem.
- Financials/Fintech play: fintechs can be more capital-light and benefit from AI and easier lending cycles.
Bearish
- SoFi marketing activity cooled in late September, suggesting user growth may slow.
- Potential dilution from capital raises could weigh on shareholder returns.
- Uncertainty around Fed policy (e.g., an outsized 50bp cut) could spook markets temporarily.
- High short interest or execution risk (e.g., DLO, speculative names) increases downside risk.
Bullish tickers
SOFINVDAHOODJPMBACAMZNGOOGL
Bearish tickers
SOFITSLAPLTRDLO
SOFI
2 price targets
4045
Bullish
Rapid search/traffic growth, new loan platform expansion, and rate cuts should boost loan origination, deposits, and margins.
Bearish
Late-September marketing slowdown and potential dilution from capital raises could temper near-term growth and returns.
NVDA
Bullish
Primary beneficiary of AI infrastructure buildout, leasing/partner programs and expanding CUDA ecosystem drive sustained demand.
Bearish
Large incumbent size reduces room for dramatic percentage moves; competition over time (custom silicon) is a risk.
TSLA
Bullish
Long-term product and engineering leadership could justify significant upside if execution continues.
Bearish
High valuation and political/PR risk make TSLA a higher-risk, higher-volatility holding presently.
PLTR
Bullish
Fundamentally interesting platform from a qualitative perspective, but pricey for current allocation.
Bearish
Considered high risk/high reward without current position from the speaker.
HOOD
Bullish
Robinhood expanding product offers (e.g., Robinhood Ventures) and retail engagement, increasing investor access.
DLO
Bullish
Partnerships (e.g., with Google payments) and analyst upgrades point to growth potential.
Bearish
Noted very high short interest (~13%), implying elevated execution and downside risk.
JPM
Bullish
Representative of traditional financials that historically perform well in accommodative cycles.
BAC
Bullish
Another bellwether bank likely to benefit from broad financial-sector tailwinds and easier rates.
AMZN
Bullish
Big tech exposure as part of the AI and cloud theme supporting long-run portfolio allocation.
GOOGL
Bullish
Alphabet/Google benefits via Waymo references and AI-related initiatives; part of megacap AI beneficiaries.
People mentioned
Anthony NotoJerome PowellTom LeeJensen HuangWarren BuffettPeter LynchDon ValentineBill MillerDevin RyanElon MuskTim SweeneyTanner