Future Investing
Great Fintech Data Across The Board! Kinda... | Tech Frenzy
9/30/2025, 12:57:02 AM
Economic Summary
- Upstart Macro Index (UMI) rose to 1.6 in August; prepayments are rising which can signal improving credit performance, but ABS delinquencies simultaneously accelerated.
- Upstart ABS 30+ day delinquencies increased to ~11.2% in August (from ~10.4% in July), well above the prior 6–8% range, raising fintech credit concerns (UPST).
- U.S. personal savings rate was 4.6% in August, down 0.2 percentage points month-over-month, reflecting spending growth outpacing real disposable income gains.
- Robinhood month-to-date (Sept 1–25) volumes: equity notional ~$206B, options contracts ~187M traded, Robinhood app crypto notional ~$8B and Bitstamp ~$12B; Wall Street revenue estimates for the quarter range ~$1.03B–$1.25B.
- Bitstamp inclusion materially increases Robinhood's crypto revenue runway; the presenter estimates Bitstamp could contribute roughly $40–$80M this quarter (centering ~ $60M).
- Market expectations of rate cuts could favor consumer-facing fintechs like SoFi (SOFI), while payments and merchant-facing names may not capture the same re-rating.
Bullish
- SoFi's management asserts underwriting strength and resilient credit performance.
- Robinhood: strong September volumes plus Bitstamp acquisition can meaningfully boost crypto revenue.
- Nvidia leading in AI hardware and robotics software, expanding TAM into physical AI and robotics.
- Shopify remains central to commerce ecosystem and is integrating with AI platforms (ChatGPT/Gemini).
- ETH treasury buys (BitDigital/BMNR) reduce circulating supply and support token/asset prices.
Bearish
- Upstart ABS securitizations show accelerating delinquencies (30+ day >11%), risking contagion across fintech lenders.
- Robinhood has rallied ~6x in a year; such rapid appreciation may be hard to sustain long term.
- Payments firms like Shift4 face valuation compression risk from disruptive technologies and competitive uncertainty.
- Duolingo and similar consumer tech names remain vulnerable to AI-driven product disruption and market repricing.
- Bitstamp/crypto revenue mix may be lower-margin due to institutional volume, limiting near-term profitability uplift.
Bullish tickers
SOFIHOODNVDASHOPBTBTBMNRBMNU
Bearish tickers
UPSTHOODFOURDUOLBITSTAMP
SOFI
1 price targets
18
Bullish
Management (Anthony Noto) emphasizes consistently strong underwriting and credit performance; SoFi historically held up in higher-rate environments.
Bearish
Analyst reports and sector ABS delinquency concerns sparked investor worries that consumer credit stresses could impact SOFI despite company rebuttals.
UPST
Bullish
UMI rose and prepayments increased, which can accompany improved credit performance and provide upside if trends continue.
Bearish
ABS securitization trusts showed accelerating 30+ day delinquencies (to ~11.2%), alarming analysts about underwriting and credit quality.
HOOD
1 price targets
250
Bullish
Robust volume across equities/options/crypto and Bitstamp acquisition could add meaningful revenue; presenter sees upside to ~$250 (mid-2026 scenario).
Bearish
Stock has surged ~6x in a year, creating valuation risk and expectations that may be hard to sustain.
FOUR
Bullish
Fundamentally strong payments operations could appreciate, but the presenter expects markets to favor consumer fintechs over payments in near term.
Bearish
Payments businesses face valuation pressure from threats of disruptive technology and investor skepticism.
DUOL
Bullish
Company fundamentals remain strong and it deserves a multiple based on product strength and user engagement.
Bearish
Market repeatedly punishes Duolingo over fears that new AI products could undercut its growth and multiple.
BTBT
Bullish
BitDigital expanding ETH treasury supports on-chain demand and can benefit BMNR/BMNU holders; company growing crypto treasury exposure.
Bearish
Convertible note issuance and capital raises can dilute shareholders and add financing risk.
BITSTAMP
Bullish
Acquisition contributes potentially ~$40–$80M incremental quarterly revenue and increases Robinhood's crypto scale.
Bearish
Institutional-heavy volume implies lower take rates, limiting immediate revenue per volume.
BMNR
Bullish
ETH treasury accumulation and staking reduces circulating supply and can support token price appreciation.
Bearish
Crypto assets remain volatile; leveraged or treasury tokens face market and regulatory risk.
BMNU
Bullish
When ETH demand rises, leveraged/treasury instruments can amplify gains for holders.
Bearish
Leveraged crypto instruments (BMNU) carry elevated risk and can produce large losses in volatile moves.
SHOP
Bullish
Shopify’s commerce platform and partnerships (Meta, Google, Amazon, ChatGPT integrations) keep it central to e-commerce and AI-driven commerce.
Bearish
High expectations built into long-term winners; past mistakes include selling too early during runups.
NVDA
Bullish
Leading in AI hardware and robotics software (GB200, Jetson Thor, Isaac Lab), expanding TAM into physical AI and robotics.
Bearish
Hardware cycles and competition could eventually moderate outsized growth rates.
GOOGL
Bullish
Gemini integration into Google Home/Nest devices will advance conversational AI in consumer hardware and services.
LULU
Bullish
Mentioned as a personal holding; implied conviction in brand and consumer demand.
People mentioned
Anthony NotoVlad TenevJeffrey AdelsonMark ZuckerbergBrian ArmstrongGary GenslerPaul AtkinsToby LutkeTom LeeElon MuskTevisTanner