Future Investing
If You Missed SoFi Stock Early, Don’t Miss This…
10/22/2025, 5:54:24 PM
Economic Summary
- Chime (CHYM) has ~8.7 million active users and reported active-member growth accelerating into the mid-30s percent year-over-year, with revenue growing faster than total membership.
- Business model is capital-light payments and interchange-driven revenue, producing very high gross margins (high 80% range) and improving operating efficiency as scale reduces vendor and fixed costs.
- Balance sheet profile is conservative: nearly zero debt and over $1 billion in cash, reducing financing risk while they invest in growth.
- Management guidance calls for incremental adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid-40s percent by Q4 on new dollars, and a long-term adjusted EBITDA target north of ~35%, implying large operating leverage potential.
- Valuation dynamic: CHYM trades at under 4x price-to-sales while growing revenue ~37%, creating a valuation spread versus peers like SoFi (SOFI) that have expanded margins and higher multiples.
- TAM and monetization runway: management estimates a very large addressable market among ~196 million average Americans, with potential to materially increase ARPU through product attach (installment loans, unsecured credit, investing, insurance, rewards).
Bullish
- Chime is scaling rapidly with active user growth accelerating from ~20% to ~37%.
- Capital-light payments model with very high gross margins and low operating leverage.
- Nearly zero debt and over $1B cash provides financial flexibility.
- Average revenue per active member is rising, especially for users with 6+ products ($442).
- Guidance implies incremental adjusted EBITDA margins of ~40% on new dollars; long-term target ~35%+.
- Valuation gap vs SoFi (SOFI) creates potential mispricing opportunity at sub-4x price-to-sales.
Bearish
- CHYM stock has fallen over 60% since its June 2025 IPO, signaling investor concern.
- Chime is currently not profitable on a net income or EBITDA basis.
- High sales and marketing spend could pressure near-term margins and cash burn.
- Uncertainty that Chime can successfully expand into premium products and wealth/insurance.
Bullish tickers
CHYMSOFI
Bearish tickers
CHYM
CHYM
Bullish
Chime is a capital-light, high-margin fintech with accelerating active-user growth, rising ARPU (especially for multi-product users), low debt, >$1B cash, and path to 35%+ adjusted EBITDA.
Bearish
CHYM dropped >60% since IPO, was initially priced richer than SoFi while growing slower, remains unprofitable with heavy sales/marketing spend risking near-term margins.
SOFI
Bullish
SoFi has executed margin expansion and strong investor returns, serving as a proof point that fintech ecosystem plays can scale profitably.
Bearish
SOFI is positioned at higher-income customers and faces its own competitive and execution risks; direct comparisons to Chime are imperfect.
People mentioned
Jason Momoa