Future Investing
Nvidia Just Signed The Largest AI Deal In History!
9/22/2025, 7:00:08 PM
Economic Summary
- AI-capex is scaling rapidly: Dell projects roughly $1 trillion in annual AI/data-center spend, implying sustained multi-year demand for compute hardware (benefiting NVDA and infrastructure providers).
- NVIDIA reported very strong AI growth (cited ~50% CAGR by Jensen Wang), and continues product cadence (Blackwell -> Vera Rubin -> Vera Feynman) to capture data-center GPU upgrades.
- Strategic partnerships and large cloud deals are reshaping vendor economics: NVIDIA agreed to deploy 10 gigawatts of systems with OpenAI and to invest up to $100 billion, aligning supply with a major AI customer.
- Hyperscaler commitments (Oracle, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) and private projects (OpenAI, XAI, Colossus buys) are driving unprecedented CapEx, pushing quarterly data-center spends toward ~ $100 billion.
- The AI buildout is framed as a multi-year (roughly 10-year) cycle by industry leaders (Lisa Su), suggesting an extended runway for hardware and cloud vendors' revenue growth.
Bullish
- NVIDIA's AI revenue growth continues accelerating, driven by hyperscaler demand and next-gen architectures.
- Massive, multi-year AI data-center CapEx (potentially ~$1 trillion annually) supports sustained demand for GPUs.
- NVIDIA-OpenAI strategic tie (10 GW deployment and up to $100B investment) secures long-term, high-volume orders.
- Hyperscalers (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, ORCL, META) committing enormous cloud/CapEx budgets creates repeat GPU purchasing.
Bearish
- NVIDIA may be overpaying for OpenAI equity, shifting capital from product investment to strategic stakes.
- Huge industry CapEx risks wasting hundreds of billions if buildouts are mistimed or technology pivots.
- Concentration on NVIDIA creates vendor dependency and potential supply-chain or competitive single-point risk.
- OpenAI's private valuation and massive cloud deals carry execution and regulatory uncertainty.
Bullish tickers
NVDAMSFTGOOGAMZNMETAORCLAMDDELL
Bearish tickers
NVDAOPENAIORCL
NVDA
Bullish
Market leader in performance-per-watt GPUs, benefiting from hyperscaler and OpenAI multi-gigawatt orders and sustained AI CapEx.
Bearish
Risk of overpaying for OpenAI equity and concentrating capital in strategic stakes rather than solely product R&D.
OPENAI
Bullish
Rapid user growth and massive compute demand make it a cornerstone customer for GPU suppliers and cloud providers.
Bearish
Private valuation (~$350B) and huge cloud/compute orders carry execution, financing, and regulatory risks.
ORCL
Bullish
Signed very large cloud deals with OpenAI, boosting cloud revenue and remaining performance obligations materially.
Bearish
Large multi-year cloud commitments are execution-heavy and depend on sustained customer spend.
MSFT
Bullish
Deploying large Blackwell GPU clusters and building gigawatt-scale data centers to serve AI demand.
Bearish
Heavy CapEx commitments could pressure margins if adoption or monetization lags expectations.
META
Bullish
Investing in massive data centers (Prometheus, Hyperion) and committing AI compute spend, driving sustained CapEx.
Bearish
Aggressive spending on data centers risks misallocation if AI deployment timelines shift.
GOOG
Bullish
Major hyperscaler demand sustains purchases of top-tier GPUs and infrastructure to support AI services.
Bearish
Intense competition for AI workloads could compress margins on cloud compute offerings.
AMZN
Bullish
Significant data-center and cloud investments position AWS to capture enterprise AI workloads.
Bearish
Diverse business lines make it harder to isolate data-center ROI and risk inefficient spend.
AMD
Bullish
Bullish commentary from CEO Lisa Su underscores a long multi-year AI buildout that benefits chipmakers broadly.
Bearish
Faces difficulty matching NVIDIA's performance-per-watt lead in hyperscale AI markets.
DELL
Bullish
Providing data-center infrastructure and forecasting large AI CapEx, implying continued server and OEM demand.
Bearish
Exposure to enterprise hardware cyclicality if AI spending patterns change.
COREWEAVE
Bullish
Partnering with AI customers and hyperscalers to supply specialized GPU capacity for large models.
Bearish
Private-cloud providers face execution and scaling risks amid hyper-competitive hyperscaler expansion.
People mentioned
Jensen WangLisa SuSam AltmanDonald Trump