Future Investing
SoFi Showing Better Than Expected Growth AGAIN | Tech Frenzy
11/1/2025, 12:02:27 AM
Economic Summary
- SoFi (SOFI) saw partner-driven demand when Galileo-powered Southwest debit card launch forced capacity to be quadrupled overnight, implying strong B2B distribution and potential replication across airlines and loyalty programs.
- SoFi Invest user growth is accelerating: ~94.6k accounts opened in October and 181k in Q3, supporting expansion of products (crypto, options, AI ETF) and potential materially larger invest AUM and revenue.
- Federal Reserve expectations shifted after Jerome Powell's remarks: probability of a December rate cut fell from ~97% to ~69.8%, creating short-term market volatility and affecting rate-sensitive stocks.
- Payments industry secular trend toward cashless transactions increases total addressable market; Shift4 (FOUR) is processing sizable volumes (~$50B cited) and pursuing international/unified commerce growth.
- Valuation dynamics across mega-cap tech: Meta (META) has compressed to a lower forward PE (~21.8–26x range discussed) making it relatively cheaper versus peers, while Alphabet (GOOGL) has moved to higher forward multiples due to consistent strong results.
Bullish
- Galileo-powered Southwest debit card launch massively exceeded expectations, signalling enterprise sales momentum for SoFi (SOFI).
- SoFi added ~94.6k Invest accounts in October and 181k in Q3, indicating strong user acquisition tailwinds.
- Payments secular shift to cashless benefits Shift4 (FOUR) with growing payment volume and large TAM.
- Meta (META) looks cheaper on forward PE and benefits from AI strengthening advertising monetization.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) expected to continue fastest revenue and valuation-led growth among mega-cap tech names.
Bearish
- Market jitters and lower odds of a December Fed rate cut have weighed on tech and financial stocks.
- Free cash flow metrics misinterpreted for banks like SoFi can fuel negative narratives despite accounting reasons.
- Acquisition and integration risks at Shift4 could create operational headaches and pressure margins.
- High valuations or 'price for perfection' concerns (e.g., Tesla) make some names vulnerable to drawdowns.
Bullish tickers
SOFIFOURMETANVDA
Bearish tickers
SOFIFOURTSLABMNR
SOFI
2 price targets
3630
Bullish
Strong user growth, Galileo partnership wins (Southwest card) and expanding product suite (crypto, options, AI ETF) support upside.
Bearish
Accounting oddities (loans held for sale) cause negative free cash flow metrics that critics cite as weakness.
FOUR
2 price targets
70140
Bullish
Cheap relative valuation, growing payment volumes (~$50B processing cited) and secular cashless tailwinds support long-term growth.
Bearish
Heavy acquisition cadence risks integration issues, legacy tech stacks and margin pressure.
META
1 price targets
648
Bullish
Compressed forward PE and AI-enabled ad improvements plus user growth across Instagram, Threads and WhatsApp make it attractive.
Bearish
Moral or regulatory objections and high public scrutiny could weigh on sentiment despite fundamentals.
NVDA
1 price targets
100
Bullish
Highest conviction holding; expected to deliver the strongest revenue and value growth over the next year.
Bearish
High expectations priced in can make the stock volatile if growth slows.
PYPL
Bullish
Still a large payments franchise; comparable valuations to some cheaper newer entrants.
Bearish
Older business with slower growth versus some fintech/younger peers.
GOOGL
Bullish
Consistent strong results and advertising strength keep it a durable earnings compounder.
Bearish
Highest forward PE among mega-cap peers at times, raising valuation sensitivity.
AMZN
Bullish
Continues to execute core businesses; benefits from consumer spend and advertising cycles.
Bearish
Short-term sell-offs can happen when expectations misalign despite long-term strength.
BMNR
2 price targets
6048
Bullish
Longer-term conviction remains for some investors; seen as lower-cost entry on dips.
Bearish
Recent sharp drops (e.g., 60 to 48) show volatility and risk for holders.
TSLA
1 price targets
600
Bullish
Business could continue to perform, but host prefers NVDA exposure instead.
Bearish
Viewed by the host as 'price for perfection' with valuation concerns at high multiples.
People mentioned
Mark ZuckerbergJerome PowellJared IsaacmanTannerJoshNathanBDTevisEthanKazZaddy Wood