Future Investing
SoFi Stock Earnings Predictions | Fintech Fridays
10/24/2025, 9:29:22 PM
Economic Summary
- SoFi (SOFI) membership growth is expected to be very strong this quarter — panelists estimate ~960k up to ~1.05M new members — driven by a high correlation between app downloads and new members, which implies sizable revenue upside and positive stock momentum if confirmed.
- SoFi's product strategy (SoFi+) is increasing products per member (around 1.46x and likely higher), which should drive higher revenue per user through cross-sell and more product adoption over 2025.
- Macro and guidance context: expected Fed pauses/rate cuts and upcoming macro events (FOMC, geopolitical meetings) create tailwinds and volatility risk; management may guide conservatively but still raise long-term outlook to justify recent dilution.
- Financial reporting nuance: intercompany/corporate revenue and hedging behavior materially affect reported top-line and EPS; listeners should account for negative corporate adjustments when modeling true operating performance.
Bullish
- Strong downloads-to-new-member correlation implies ~960k–1.05M Q3 new members, supporting revenue and growth expectations (SOFI).
- SoFi+ is accelerating cross-sell and products-per-member, which should boost revenue per user and monetization (SOFI).
- Positive earnings momentum and changed market sentiment could push SoFi shares above $30 on an earnings beat.
- Analyst estimates appear conservative; a meaningful beat could re-rate the stock and attract fresh investors.
Bearish
- Sensor Tower download data could be wrong or biased, which would overstate SoFi's new-member estimates and disappoint expectations.
- Negative corporate/intercompany revenue adjustments and hedging losses can materially reduce reported top-line and margins.
- SoFi's free cash flow is likely very negative in the near term, creating short-term profitability and cash concerns.
- Dilution from recent capital raises could pressure the stock and reduce near-term upside for existing holders.
Bullish tickers
SOFILCHOODVZ
Bearish tickers
SOFIRGTI
SOFI
9 price targets
3331.533.01451930.7231.512735
Bullish
High downloads-to-members correlation, accelerating SoFi+ cross-sell, strong revenue momentum, and positive sentiment could drive continued re-rating.
Bearish
Risks include possible Sensor Tower data errors overstating member growth, negative corporate revenue adjustments, negative free cash flow, and dilution pressures.
HOOD
Bullish
Robinhood adding new features (prediction markets) indicates engagement and product experimentation.
Bearish
Mentioned mainly for product/feature moves (prediction market); not discussed as an earnings bet.
LC
Bullish
Referenced as posting strong numbers in the sector; provides positive comp for SoFi sentiment.
Bearish
No direct bearish points raised; referenced amid sector strength comparisons.
VZ
Bullish
Cited as a name some panelists like, but not discussed in depth.
Bearish
Only briefly mentioned as an investor interest; no specific bearish argument given.
GOOGL
Bullish
Mentioned as a large incumbent (Alphabet) unlikely to be leapfrogged by small quantum startups.
Bearish
Not discussed negatively; referenced in a quantum computing competitiveness comment.
IBM
Bullish
Mentioned as an established competitor in advanced computing; implies resilience versus small players.
Bearish
Not discussed negatively; referenced as a major incumbent in computing/quantum context.
RGTI
Bullish
Not presented as a bullish idea; discussed only in skepticism context.
Bearish
Panelists skeptical that small quantum names can beat big incumbents like Alphabet or IBM.
BMNR
Bullish
Referenced as an actively bought position by a panelist, implying conviction among some hosts.
Bearish
No bearish case discussed; mentioned briefly as something a panelist is buying.
People mentioned
SteveTannerTevisChris LaPointeRoyJoshDebbieEvanTodd AsperoJustin HerbertJosh AllenCiryl GaneDevin RyanAmitDavidMikey MusumeciAnthony NotoEddie Bravo