Future Investing
SoFi Stock Is UNDER ATTACK! (More BS Data & Lies)
10/4/2025, 7:03:36 PM
Economic Summary
- Yipit data highlighted a 22% month-over-month decline in personal loan volume for August, but the same source showed Q3 personal loan originations up 59% year-over-year, suggesting the August figure may be a cherry-picked monthly dip within a very strong quarter for SOFI.
- Search interest and app/website metrics for SoFi (SOFI) spiked in late July into Q3 across products (banking, checking, credit card), indicating elevated consumer demand and acquisition activity that could support stronger Q3 results.
- Fitch adjusted its base-case lifetime default assumption for the 2023 personal loan trust to 7.5% (from 6.25%), citing higher delinquencies, but left ratings intact and noted upgrades elsewhere; the actions mainly reference older vintages and not necessarily current originations.
- A BTIG/Upstart calculation error initially reported much higher default rates for Upstart (UPST) and lenders like Pagaya (PGY), then corrected to materially lower figures, illustrating how noisy or incorrect third-party data can cause outsized market reactions among lender stocks.
Bullish
- Q3 personal loan originations up 59% year-over-year, implying a potential record quarter (~$7.7B).
- Spikes in SoFi search volume, app downloads, rankings, website traffic, and Trustpilot activity in Q3.
- SoFi says it tightened credit after weaker vintages; company reports credit performance remains stable.
Bearish
- Yipit screenshot claims August personal loan volume down 22% month-over-month.
- Fitch raised its base-case lifetime default assumption to 7.5% for the 2023 trust.
- Negative analyst notes and headline-driven sell calls amplified downward pressure on SOFI.
Bullish tickers
SOFI
Bearish tickers
SOFIUPSTPGY
SOFI
Bullish
Company shows Q3 personal loan originations reportedly +59% YoY (implying ~ $7.7B), plus strong search/app/download and traffic metrics; management disputes worsening credit trends.
Bearish
Critics point to Yipit’s August M/M decline, Fitch raising 2023-trust default assumptions, and renewed sell-side bearish calls putting pressure on SOFI stock.
UPST
Bullish
BTIG later corrected its math, lowering the reported default rates materially versus the initial claim.
Bearish
BTIG initially reported much higher default rates for Upstart’s trust, triggering negative sentiment and price weakness.
PGY
Bullish
Like peers, Pagaya benefited from the subsequent correction of erroneous default numbers.
Bearish
Pagaya was swept up in the lender-wide selloff after inflated default-rate headlines.
People mentioned
Anthony NotoGiuliano Baloney