Future Investing
SoFi Stock Q3 Earnings Estimates Just Jumped Up 50%! WTF
10/9/2025, 10:15:17 PM
Economic Summary
- Analyst Devin Ryan at JMP materially raised SoFi (SOFI) estimates: Q3 EPS to $0.12 (from $0.07), above consensus $0.08, reflecting expected robust third‑party loan originations.
- JMP models the loan platform business (LPB) rising ~17% sequentially to $2.8B in originations and cites a $1.5B capital raise to support balance‑sheet growth and M&A optionality for SOFI.
- JMP's revisions lift longer‑term profitability: 2025 EPS to $0.38 (from $0.28) and 2026 to $0.60 (from $0.52); for the quarter JMP projects revenue ~$974M and net income ~$151M (implying ~15.5% margin).
Bullish
- JMP raised Q3 EPS to $0.12 versus consensus $0.08, signaling stronger-than-expected results.
- Loan platform origination forecasted up 17% sequential to $2.8B, driving revenue growth.
- $1.5B capital raise provides capacity for balance-sheet growth and potential M&A.
- DocuSign traffic from SoFi rose ~94% in August, indicating higher application/signing activity.
Bearish
- Estimates rely on a young loan platform business only four quarters old, which could prove volatile.
- Key inputs like take rates and loan mix are unclear, risking upside if assumptions are wrong.
- Upgrades hinge on continued origination momentum; a slowdown would hurt revised EPS projections.
Bullish tickers
SOFIDOCU
Bearish tickers
SOFI
SOFI
Bullish
JMP raised Q3 and multi‑year EPS based on expected LPB origination growth to $2.8B and $1.5B capital for growth/M&A.
Bearish
Reliance on a nascent loan platform and opaque take‑rate assumptions create execution risk for upgraded EPS.
DOCU
Bullish
August saw ~94% increase in traffic from SoFi to DocuSign, suggesting higher signing activity for loan applications.
Bearish
Traffic spikes from SoFi may not convert to material revenue for DocuSign if conversions are low.
People mentioned
Devin RyanTanner