Future Investing
SoFi Stock's Earnings Are About To SKYROCKET! (& NEW Price Target)
10/21/2025, 5:48:00 PM
Economic Summary
- Membership acceleration: The presenter forecasts ~980,000 new SoFi (SOFI) members this quarter, implying significantly higher user growth and enhanced cross-sell potential that could materially lift product sales and revenue.
- Revenue trajectory: Adjusted net revenue is modeled at roughly $960 million (+39% YoY), indicating continued strong top-line expansion driven primarily by financial services and lending if execution meets the forecast.
- Financial services & per-product economics: Financial services revenue is expected around $420 million (about $26 per financial services product) and projected to grow ~76% YoY, highlighting a shift toward higher-margin, product-based revenue streams (credit card and lending-related products).
- Lending and home loans: Lending revenue is projected near $476 million with a notable home-loan ramp increasing average revenue per product and originations; the presenter suggests this could create the firm’s first billion-dollar quarter in originations, improving margins and contribution profit.
- Profitability and dilution trade-off: Contribution margin is forecast at ~54% ($520M), adjusted EBITDA about $316M (~33% margin), net income ~$146M (15% margin), and EPS ~$0.12; margins improve partly due to aggressive share dilution intended to accelerate growth, creating a trade-off between scale and per-share outcomes.
- Deposits and product mix: SoFi Money and deposit inflows are expected to rebound (e.g., ~475k new accounts), while Invest and credit-card products are forecast to ramp rapidly, diversifying fee and deposit-related revenue streams.
- Risks/uncertainties: Tech platform revenue is expected to be roughly flat and corporate revenue is modeled as a negative ~$50M, both of which create modeling uncertainty and potential downside to headline results.
Bullish
- Forecasted 980k new members driving strong top-line expansion.
- Financial services revenue accelerating, becoming a larger high-margin contributor.
- Home loans ramp could materially raise lending revenue and average revenue per product.
- Products per member and credit-card growth should lift revenue per user.
Bearish
- Massive share dilution could depress per-share returns despite revenue growth.
- Tech platform revenue appears flat, risking stagnation in a key segment.
- Corporate revenue uncertainty (modeled as negative $50M) could drag results.
- Tough year-over-year comps may make sustaining high growth difficult.
Bullish tickers
SOFI
Bearish tickers
SOFI
SOFI
Bullish
Memberships, financial-services revenue, home-loan originations, and rising products-per-member are forecast to drive strong revenue and margin expansion.
Bearish
Per-share metrics may be pressured by substantial dilution and uneven segment performance (flat tech platform, corporate drag).