Future Investing
Tech Cycle Continues, Crypto & AI | Tech Frenzy
10/14/2025, 12:58:58 AM
Economic Summary
- Volatility returned after an unusually long low-volatility stretch; October historically shows many 1% moves, and recent internals (regional banks, housing, high-yield credit) hint at localized weakness despite broader gains.
- AI funding has surged (hundreds of billions raised) and is driving concentration of premiums into both large profitable firms (NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL) and speculative AI startups; profitable incumbents are likeliest to endure a valuation pullback.
- Treasury-style crypto strategies track MNAV in real time; firms acquiring Ethereum (e.g., BMR in transcript) benefit if ETH utility and staking adoption rise, but their valuations are tied to crypto price action and investor premium.
- Macro/bull-market context: after a big multi-year rally, historical comparisons show many bull markets persist for years (average multi-year durations), supporting a constructive equity stance if earnings and margins hold.
- Amazon's logistics and AWS data-center scale give structural advantages versus new AI entrants; physical network plus cloud infrastructure is a durable competitive moat supporting long-term revenue and margin generation.
Bullish
- NVDA as the clear AI compute beneficiary, durable revenue and margin tailwinds.
- AMZN has a massive logistics moat plus AWS data-center strength.
- GOOGL expanding AI infrastructure (big India investment) and leading AI models/tokens.
- SHOP and broader e-commerce win from automation, robotics, and AI-driven fulfillment.
- TSM/semiconductor supply-chain names benefit from sustained chip demand and government backing.
- SOFI/neo-banks can capture millennial flows and offer attractive APYs/features.
Bearish
- Speculative AI startups with little or no revenue are most likely to crack first.
- Market froth and pulled-forward valuations create downside risk if execution lags.
- Robinhood platform outages and execution issues can hurt user trust and growth.
- Tesla faces higher multiples and subsidy changes, increasing execution and demand risk.
- Regional banks, housing, and early stress in high-yield credit are domestic weakness signs.
Bullish tickers
NVDAAMZNGOOGLSHOPTSMSOFIBMR
Bearish tickers
TSLAHOODPYPLBMR
NVDA
Bullish
Market leader in AI compute with dominant position benefiting from enormous token and model demand.
Bearish
Valuation has priced in much AI growth; future upside depends on continued execution and massive incremental revenue recognition.
AMZN
Bullish
Unparalleled logistics moat plus AWS data-center scale and Buy with Prime extend durable competitive advantages.
Bearish
Low retail take-rates and slower e‑commerce margin expansion could limit short-term upside.
TSLA
Bullish
Strong product lineup and long-term optionality (Optimus, FSD) retain upside for patient holders.
Bearish
High multiples and the end of some subsidies increase demand and valuation risk.
SOFI
Bullish
Attractive neo-bank features and competitive APYs are drawing users from incumbents.
Bearish
Fintech competition is intense; product execution and profits must follow user growth.
HOOD
Bullish
Exploring prediction markets and acquisitions to expand product set.
Bearish
Platform outages and order rejections harm reputation and may accelerate user migration.
JPM
Bullish
Large, stable bank mentioned in context of earnings and institutional activity; seen as part of financial infrastructure.
DPZ
Bullish
Used as an example in earnings-probability/prediction-market activity; short-term event-driven upside.
SHOP
Bullish
Secular e-commerce beneficiary as AI, robotics, and delivery automation expand online share of commerce.
Bearish
High expectations could be partially priced in.
MSFT
Bullish
Large cloud and enterprise foothold with Copilot/AI products supporting continued growth.
GOOGL
Bullish
Major AI investment (including $10B in India) and leadership in models/tokens positions it as an AI winner.
AMD
Bullish
Important GPU/compute competitor positioned to capture share in data centers.
Bearish
Trails Nvidia on AI-specific compute demand; competition intense.
AVGO
Bullish
Profitable semiconductor/firmware vendor benefiting from current enterprise demand.
TSM
Bullish
Beneficiary of global chip demand and potential government support for foundry expansion.
Bearish
Geopolitical/Taiwan risk could affect supply chain exposure.
PYPL
Bullish
Large payments footprint with evolving product features (cards/cashback).
Bearish
Analyst skepticism and slowing growth reduce conviction.
DLO
Bullish
Fast-growing payments provider cited as winning in certain payment verticals.
BMR
Bullish
Treasury strategy actively accumulating Ethereum with potential staking/validator phase two and low operating costs.
Bearish
Practically no revenue; valuation relies heavily on MNAV premium and ETH price movements.
People mentioned
Anthony NotoVlad TenevElon MuskTom LeeWarren BuffettMichael DellDon ValentineJustin TrudeauDonald TrumpKaty PerryWill NanceRyan DietrichJames BurnsSteve