Future Investing
The TRUTH About SoFi Stock Earnings (Investors Missed This)
10/30/2025, 7:04:54 PM
Economic Summary
- SOFI delivered a Q3 2025 triple beat versus guidance: revenue beat ~11.8%, adjusted EBITDA beat ~23%, and net income beat nearly 40%, with EPS guidance raised from $0.31 to $0.37.
- The business mix is shifting: financial services now posts higher margins than lending for the first time, contribution profit accounts for over 50% of contribution, and fee-based services have become the most profitable segment.
- 2025 guidance was raised across the board, including member growth guidance of at least 3.5 million (~34% y/y) and company-wide targets implying ~36% revenue growth for full-year 2025.
- Capital position: total risk-based capital ratio is ~20.2%, implying room to scale the loan book ~6–7x and the ability to reduce the ratio toward ~15% without major concern, supporting accelerated lending-driven revenue expansion.
- Loan quality and platform scale: net charge-offs improved across home, student, and personal loans; loan-platform originations rose from ~$1B to ~$3.4B quarterly YoY, take rate increased to ~4.32%, and recent personal-loan sales showed a 106.4% gain-on-sale, suggesting market demand above SoFi's internal fair-value marks.
Bullish
- Consistent triple beats on revenue, EBITDA, and net income.
- Financial services now highest-margin segment, improving profitability.
- Loan-platform originations grew 3.4x year-over-year, scaling fee revenue.
- High risk-based capital (20.2%) enables multiple-fold loan book growth capacity.
Bearish
- Raising fair-value marks for loans could be artificial; reversals would hit revenue and earnings.
- Share dilution boosted tangible book value, potentially pressuring per-share economics.
- Dependence on loan sales and external buyers could weaken if market demand softens.
Bullish tickers
SOFI
Bearish tickers
SOFI
SOFI
Bullish
Repeated triple beats, raised guidance, expanding financial-services margins, strong loan-platform originations, and high capital ratios enable scalable, profitable growth.
Bearish
Fair-value loan marks may be elevated; share dilution increased tangible book value, risking per-share returns if growth falters.
People mentioned
Anthony InotoChris