Future Investing
Tom Lee STUNS With New S&P500 Price Target
10/27/2025, 7:20:03 PM
Economic Summary
- Tom Lee expects the S&P 500 to rise another 4%–10% into year-end (base case 4%), potentially reaching above 7,000 given Fed rate cuts and positive catalysts.
- Market-priced near-certainty of rate cuts (cited ~97.8%) is a primary bullish catalyst for equities in the near term.
- Earnings from the five largest S&P components (Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) are disproportionately important, comprising ~24.6% of the index.
- US-China trade progress (fewer or no 100% tariffs) is viewed as supportive for equities and crypto by reducing trade/tariff uncertainty.
- Crypto saw a major deleveraging event on Oct 10, but low open interest and improving technicals for BTC and ETH suggest potential for a year-end crypto rally.
- BMNR Holdings: reported ~3.3M ETH (about 2.8% of supply), ~$415M in BTC, and increased cash (~$305M); NAV per share estimated around $43.24 and MNav ~1.09x.
Bullish
- High probability of Fed rate cuts (cited 97.8%) could fuel a 4–10% S&P move into year-end.
- Progress on US-China trade talks reduces tariff risk and supports risk assets and crypto.
- Major tech earnings (MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL/GOOG, AMZN, META) likely to beat and drive market higher.
- J.P. Morgan signaling openness to crypto as loan collateral increases institutional credibility for BTC/ETH.
Bearish
- Earnings from the five largest S&P names could disappoint and keep the market flat or down.
- Crypto experienced a major deleveraging/liquidation event (Oct 10) with lingering ripple effects.
- BMNR likely issued new shares (~7.6M), diluting shareholders while underlying business remains limited.
Bullish tickers
MSFTAAPLGOOGLAMZNMETAETHBMNR
Bearish tickers
BMNRETHBTC
MSFT
Bullish
One of five mega-cap companies whose strong earnings could lift the S&P materially.
Bearish
Disappointing earnings from Microsoft could drag the S&P and negate expected year-end gains.
AAPL
Bullish
Part of the concentrated group of large-cap earnings expected to support market upside.
Bearish
Apple earnings miss risk could weigh heavily on the index due to its large weight.
GOOGL
Bullish
Alphabet (class A) is a major index driver; positive results would bolster S&P performance.
Bearish
Alphabet earnings or guidance misses could undercut market optimism despite its large index weight.
GOOG
Bullish
Alphabet class C shares contribute to the concentrated earnings impact that can push the S&P higher.
Bearish
Class C shares expose holders to the same earnings/valuation risk as Alphabet overall.
AMZN
Bullish
Performance as one of five mega-caps could significantly support a year-end S&P advance.
Bearish
Amazon missing expectations could limit the overall market rally given its sizable index weight.
META
Bullish
Strong Meta earnings would be a key contributor to the potential 4–10% S&P upside.
Bearish
Weak Meta results would be a major negative for index performance given concentration risk.
JPM
Bullish
J.P. Morgan openness to accepting BTC/ETH as collateral boosts institutional crypto credibility.
Bearish
Not explicitly bearish in the transcript; potential risk if bank exposure to crypto becomes problematic.
BMNR
1 price targets
43.24
Bullish
Holds ~3.3M ETH and increased cash; NAV rising with ETH price, MNav ~1.09x suggesting asset value upside.
Bearish
Likely share issuance (estimated ~7.6M new shares) diluted existing holders; underlying business limited and stock lagging holdings.
ETH
2 price targets
38003900
Bullish
Open interest at record lows and technicals turning positive, supporting a potential year-end crypto rally; institutional collateral acceptance increases credibility.
Bearish
Experienced a major deleveraging/liquidation event on Oct 10 causing near-term ripple effects and volatility.
BTC
Bullish
Despite recent drawdowns, Bitcoin is viewed as resilient and benefits from potential institutional adoption as collateral.
Bearish
Suffered steep declines during the recent deleveraging event, reflecting leverage-induced downside risk.
People mentioned
Tom Lee