Future Investing
Wallstreet RAISES Earnings Expectations | Tech Frenzy
10/24/2025, 10:14:49 PM
Economic Summary
- Earnings season has been very strong: ~84.5% of S&P 500 companies beat profit expectations for Q3 2025, on track for the best performance since Q2 2021, implying broad corporate resilience.
- Markets are pricing a high probability of rate cuts — the speaker cites ~96.7% chance of a near-term cut and ~85% odds of three cuts this year — which would boost rate-sensitive fintechs like SOFI.
- The speaker warns that large (50bp) rate cuts often indicate weak economic data and can spook markets, so the size/timing of cuts matters for equity reactions.
- Technology is characterized as deflationary over time (higher quality at lower price), which supports margin expansion across industries and can offset some macro weakness.
- Payments and lending businesses remain cyclical: they can suffer during rate-hike or economic slowdowns but outperform in easing cycles and rising digital payment adoption (e.g., PIX, Apple Pay).
Bullish
- Tech-driven margin expansion will boost earnings across many industries, similar to past internet-driven deflation in consumer goods.
- Amazon: broad analyst upgrades and consensus targets point to upside, with multiple firms raising 12-month targets to ~$300.
- Shift4 (payments): large acquisition expands customer funnel (140k merchants) and implies cross-sell upside at cheap fundamentals.
- Nvidia and AI-related names expected to beat and continue strong demand; NVDA likely to post better-than-expected results.
- SoFi could benefit materially from expected Fed rate cuts and ongoing fintech/product expansion.
Bearish
- SoFi stock could crash if the widely-anticipated Fed rate cut fails to materialize, given high expectations priced in.
- High analyst targets and elevated expectations increase the chance of disappointment if results come in only modestly above prior comps.
- Payments and lending businesses are cyclical and vulnerable to rate hikes and economic weakness (e.g., Upstart-style risk).
- Companies removing key KPIs (e.g., Netflix stopping subscriber disclosures) reduce transparency and make thesis construction harder.
- Large 50 basis-point rate cuts typically signal bad data and can spook markets despite being easing moves.
Bullish tickers
AMZNNVDAFOURSOFIBMNRRKLBHOOD
Bearish tickers
SOFINFLXUPSTFOUR
SOFI
Bullish
Fintech with product expansion and likely to benefit from expected rate cuts; speaker expects solid results though warns on comps.
Bearish
High expectations and heavy pricing of Fed cuts create risk of a sharp pullback if cuts are delayed or results fall short.
AMZN
9 price targets
300250269260280271272240265
Bullish
Wide analyst upgrades and consensus targets, plus expected AWS strength, underpin a positive near-term outlook.
Bearish
Main bear case is slowing AWS growth, which could justify downside versus lofty analyst targets.
NVDA
Bullish
Speaker expects NVDA to beat and sees significant momentum from AI demand driving upside.
Bearish
Valuation and the risk of a near-term pullback despite strong underlying demand could limit upside.
FOUR
Bullish
Shift4 acquisition of Worldline's North American assets adds ~140k merchants, accelerating cross-sell and growth at attractive multiples.
Bearish
Payments businesses are cyclical and vulnerable to macro slowdowns despite M&A; partial book purchases may be cherry-picked.
HOOD
Bullish
Strong product integrations and detailed data give good visibility; speaker holds material position and is broadly positive.
Bearish
High revenue/consensus estimates can make earnings difficult to beat; exposure to take-rate pressure remains a risk.
NFLX
Bullish
Not seen as inherently bearish by speaker — still capable of doing well, but the lack of KPIs complicates thesis.
Bearish
Removing subscriber disclosures reduces transparency and makes it harder to build conviction, which is a structural risk for investors.
BMNR
2 price targets
4140
Bullish
Speaker personally buys frequently, expects staking and ties BMNR performance to Ethereum's trajectory.
Bearish
Continual dilution and NAV dynamics could pressure the token/asset if underlying assets or ETH weaken.
RKLB
2 price targets
3.55.01
Bullish
Mentioned as an early buy at low prices; speaker and community members see strong upside from prior entry points.
Bearish
Aerospace and small-cap launchers can be volatile and sensitive to execution risk.
PEP
1 price targets
52
Bullish
Bought at low levels; viewed as a steady long-term holding by speaker.
Bearish
Consumer staples face secular headwinds and margin pressure in some cycles.
UPST
Bullish
Can do very well in easing cycles, but speaker highlights cyclicality as key risk.
Bearish
Lending platforms like Upstart struggle during rate-hike periods and are cyclical if they put loans on balance sheet.
People mentioned
Tom LeeElon MuskWarren BuffettDonald TrumpChris HagerJared IsaacmanDavid VelezTevisRoySteveTannerSvenMatt MoneyMichael