Future Investing
Why I’m LOADING UP on BMNR Stock Right Now
10/2/2025, 8:19:27 PM
Economic Summary
- BitMine (BMNR) holds roughly 2.65 million ETH; each $1 increase in ETH raises BMNR's book value by about $2.65M and adds roughly $80k in annual staking yield at current ratios, directly linking BMNR equity value to ETH prices.
- BMNR materially increased shares outstanding to ~280 million, diluting NAV per share; dilution reduces per-share value now but could be accretive if ETH continues to rise and they deploy cash into ETH.
- Institutional adoption and tokenization (mentions of JPMorgan, Swift, BlackRock, CME) are accelerating on-chain activity, which increases gas usage, burns ETH, and could push Ethereum toward deflationary issuance dynamics supporting ETH price.
- Market infrastructure changes — e.g., CME launching 24/7 crypto futures and firms tokenizing shares (FXNEXUS, Shopify examples) — will likely increase trading volume, on-chain transactions, and demand for Ethereum settlement and liquidity.
- Competitive landscape: MicroStrategy (MSTR) is a much larger treasury player in the space; BitMine is among the largest ETH treasuries but remains materially smaller than the top BTC treasuries, affecting relative market influence.
Bullish
- BMNR holds 2.65M ETH, so every $1 rise in ETH adds about $2.65M to book value.
- Institutional on-chain adoption (JPM, BlackRock, Swift, CME) boosts ETH demand and fee burns.
- Tokenization of assets and 24/7 crypto trading will increase on-chain activity and ETH utility.
Bearish
- Large dilution to 280 million shares lowers NAV per share for BMNR in the near term.
- Heavy dependence on Ethereum price means BMNR suffers if ETH falls or stagnates.
- Short-term appearance worsens while ETH dips despite long-term asset accumulation.
Bullish tickers
BMNRETHMSTRJPMBLKCMESHOPHOODFXNEXUS
Bearish tickers
BMNRETH
BMNR
4 price targets
5565100200
Bullish
Holds 2.65M ETH and cash; ETH appreciation and continued accumulation/staking could materially raise book value per share.
Bearish
Dilution to ~280M shares sharply lowers NAV per share and pressures short-term stock performance if ETH does not rally.
ETH
1 price targets
4450
Bullish
Growing institutional adoption, tokenization, more gas fees and burns, plus products like 24/7 futures, could reduce issuance and support ETH price.
Bearish
Volatility and price declines would reduce BMNR book value and staking yield, hurting treasuries heavily exposed to ETH.
MSTR
Bullish
As a large treasury example, MicroStrategy validates treasury-led strategies and institutional demand for digital-asset treasuries.
Bearish
Larger competitors dominate treasury size, limiting smaller treasuries' relative influence.
JPM
Bullish
Institutional adoption by JPMorgan increases credibility and demand for Ethereum-based settlement and liquidity.
BLK
Bullish
BlackRock interest signals large institutional flows and potential product innovation tied to ETH.
CME
Bullish
CME launching 24/7 crypto futures could expand access and liquidity, driving more on-chain activity and fees.
SHOP
Bullish
Shopify's retail payments experiments provide early retail on-chain payment use cases for tokenized assets.
HOOD
Bullish
Robinhood leadership (Vlad Tenev) advocating tokenization highlights fintech support for on-chain financialization.
FXNEXUS
Bullish
Native tokenization of public shares demonstrates real-world asset tokenization use cases on Ethereum.
People mentioned
Vlad TenevTom Lee