Paper Gains
Amazon's $38B OpenAI Win: 5% Stock Rocket!
11/4/2025, 1:30:14 PM
Economic Summary
- Fed rhetoric moved markets: Powell/data-dependent messaging reduced the market's confidence in a guaranteed December cut, lowering cut odds from ~94% to ~63% then back toward ~65%, implying continued sensitivity to incoming data.
- With the government shutdown limiting releases (no NFP), the market will treat ADP payrolls as the closest labor proxy this week; ADP (consensus ~24k) could act like a substitute NFP data point and move markets.
- Recent CPI showed slightly cooler core month-over-month but slightly higher headline, keeping the Fed data-dependent and contributing to the choppy risk-on/risk-off backdrop.
- Oil inventory build at Cushing (a small surplus) explains near-term weakness in some energy names, while scheduled EIA reports and rig counts remain watchpoints.
- Seasonality: the Santa Claus rally and late‑Nov/Dec small-cap seasonality historically favor IWM/small-caps, creating a tactical window for a rally followed by potential pullback.
Bullish
- AI frenzy (NVDA/MSFT) is powering tech outperformance and deal flow (data center deals, Lambda/Microsoft).
- NVIDIA (NVDA) technical breakout and Microsoft/Lambda-related headlines support near-term upside to mid-300s.
- Small-cap seasonality / January effect supports a late‑Q4 rally in the Russell (IWM).
- Tesla (TSLA) accumulation ahead of shareholder vote could drive further share-price appreciation.
Bearish
- Fed hawkishness and reduced odds of a December cut raise risk-off pressure, hurting crypto and cyclical stocks.
- Meta (META) technicals look weak — failure below 633 likely risks a deeper retracement toward ~595–585.
- Fortinet (FTNT) may disappoint on results and pull down cybersecurity peers like PANW and ZS.
- Kenvue (acquisition mention) / takeover-driven dilution concerns weigh on that consumer name.
Bullish tickers
NVDAMSFTIWMTSLAMDBHOOD
Bearish tickers
METAFTNTKENVUECRYPTO
NVDA
2 price targets
350325
Bullish
AI-led demand and Microsoft/Lambda headlines support further upside; technical extension toward mid‑300s pre-earnings if it holds breakout.
Bearish
If NVDA fails to hold the ~205–212 pre-earnings breakout area it could see a meaningful pullback; valuation is elevated.
TSLA
2 price targets
520370
Bullish
Shareholder-vote driven accumulation and possible China production tailwinds could push shares toward the 520s on a breakout.
Bearish
A breakdown below the consolidation could retest the ~370 area; high volatility around the shareholder vote.
META
3 price targets
634595585
Bullish
If price holds above the 633–645 pivot area and momentum returns, the downtrend can be contained and resume higher.
Bearish
Technically vulnerable — a loss of ~634 could lead to a 50–61.8% retracement zone near ~595–585.
FTNT
Bullish
If Fortinet unexpectedly beats, it could lift the entire network/security group, but the streamer expects downside risk.
Bearish
Expected to be a weaker report that could drag cybersecurity peers (PANW, ZS); watch for stock weakness.
UNH
1 price targets
430
Bullish
If UNH holds near-term support and forms a higher daily low, a rebound toward ~$420–430 is likely.
Bearish
Post-earnings weakness tested the 200-day; losing key levels (eg. ~325) risks a deeper retest of prior breakout.
MDB
Bullish
Pre-market strength and sector software interest can drive momentum-based upside.
Bearish
Volatile swing trade that recently gave back gains; prone to sharp intraday reversals.
HOOD
Bullish
Partnerships (mortgage product with Sage) and new revenue lines could materially exceed analyst expectations.
Bearish
New product moves (prediction markets) risk being non‑sticky or controversial, which could concern investors.
People mentioned
Jerome PowellVlad TenevAmitEvanGenePaperJayroy