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Paper Gains

Amazon's $38B OpenAI Win: 5% Stock Rocket!

11/4/2025, 1:30:14 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Fed rhetoric moved markets: Powell/data-dependent messaging reduced the market's confidence in a guaranteed December cut, lowering cut odds from ~94% to ~63% then back toward ~65%, implying continued sensitivity to incoming data.
  • With the government shutdown limiting releases (no NFP), the market will treat ADP payrolls as the closest labor proxy this week; ADP (consensus ~24k) could act like a substitute NFP data point and move markets.
  • Recent CPI showed slightly cooler core month-over-month but slightly higher headline, keeping the Fed data-dependent and contributing to the choppy risk-on/risk-off backdrop.
  • Oil inventory build at Cushing (a small surplus) explains near-term weakness in some energy names, while scheduled EIA reports and rig counts remain watchpoints.
  • Seasonality: the Santa Claus rally and late‑Nov/Dec small-cap seasonality historically favor IWM/small-caps, creating a tactical window for a rally followed by potential pullback.
Bullish
  • AI frenzy (NVDA/MSFT) is powering tech outperformance and deal flow (data center deals, Lambda/Microsoft).
  • NVIDIA (NVDA) technical breakout and Microsoft/Lambda-related headlines support near-term upside to mid-300s.
  • Small-cap seasonality / January effect supports a late‑Q4 rally in the Russell (IWM).
  • Tesla (TSLA) accumulation ahead of shareholder vote could drive further share-price appreciation.
Bearish
  • Fed hawkishness and reduced odds of a December cut raise risk-off pressure, hurting crypto and cyclical stocks.
  • Meta (META) technicals look weak — failure below 633 likely risks a deeper retracement toward ~595–585.
  • Fortinet (FTNT) may disappoint on results and pull down cybersecurity peers like PANW and ZS.
  • Kenvue (acquisition mention) / takeover-driven dilution concerns weigh on that consumer name.
Paper Gains

Amazon's $38B OpenAI Win: 5% Stock Rocket! [LIVE]

11/3/2025, 4:19:33 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • SPY is trading in a short-term consolidation box (roughly 677–686); holding above ~683.5 would be constructive and could put a breakout to ~700 in play this week based on average weekly range.
  • QQQ and large-cap tech strength (driven by AI headlines) make QQQ constructive with upside targets near 650–660 if it clears its current box; a break below 624 would invalidate that bullish thesis.
  • Ethereum (ETH) technical structure shows it testing resistance; a failure of the near-term breakout region could produce a very fast liquidity drop toward ~2800, otherwise continued consolidation around ~3500 before any major move.
  • Meta Platforms (META) is structurally weaker post-run, with the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci zone near ~634–595 as the key value area; loss of 634 raises odds of deeper retracement into the mid‑500s.
  • Individual stocks: AAPL remains in an intact upchannel with short-term flips around 269–270 for weekly momentum, NVDA benefits from AI/data-center headlines and has extensions toward ~325, while UNH is weak post-earnings and needs to hold ~329–336 to form a constructive daily higher low.
Bullish
  • SPY has a plausible breakout to ~700 if it holds the 680 box and average weekly range plays out.
  • QQQ can extend to the 650–660 area on a breakout from the current box.
  • AAPL remains in an upchannel and can trend toward the 320s if momentum resumes.
  • NVDA looks constructive with AI tailwinds and extension potential toward ~325.
Bearish
  • SPY could lose the 680 support box and gap fill down toward ~670 or lower.
  • Meta (META) chart structure is broken with a high probability of deeper retracement to the 633–585 zone.
  • Ethereum (ETH) could flash down to ~2800 in a fast liquidity event if key breakout levels fail.
  • UNH is showing post-earnings weakness and could retest the 300 traffic zone if 325 breaks.
Paper Gains

$500B China Deal: NVDA's $120B Explosion! [LIVE]

10/27/2025, 7:27:54 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • US-China trade framework talks (Malaysia) are lifting chip and rare-earth export expectations, benefiting semiconductor suppliers and miners but risking reversion if tariffs ease.
  • AI and data-center demand remains a primary market driver, with large-cap tech (MAG7) earnings and Azure/AI trends (MSFT, NVDA) underpinning equity strength.
  • The Fed (FOMC) decision midweek is a key macro catalyst — a move toward rate cuts is priced into markets and helps justify current all-time highs.
  • Gold’s recent unwind reflects reduced geopolitical/dollar hedge demand as trade headlines improve; expect sideways volatility before any new breakout.
  • Company-specific supply/bookings signals (e.g., SMCI’s ~$12B of net new orders) are materially affecting sector narratives even as markets debate how much is priced in.
Bullish
  • AI/data-center demand driving outsized bookings and order growth (e.g., SMCI, NVDA).
  • Big-tech (MAG7) earnings and an expected easing rate path support broader market gains.
  • Momentum names and fintech (e.g., SOFI) show strong buy-the-dip behavior into earnings.
  • Robust retail and holiday season setup could lift consumer and retail stocks.
Bearish
  • Rare-earth and tariff-driven plays may reverse if US-China trade talks ease, hurting miners (e.g., Freeport/FCX).
  • Unionization and structural costs could weigh on legacy operators like UPS, limiting upside.
  • OpenAI encroachment into enterprise software threatens mid/small-cap SaaS (e.g., TWLO, TEAM, CRM).
  • Earnings misses or a hawkish surprise from the FOMC could trigger sharp, short-term market pullbacks.
Paper Gains

Trump Xi Truce Save Stocks

10/20/2025, 8:25:56 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • A scheduled meeting between US and Chinese leaders plus a 90-day tariff delay has been a near-term bullish driver for markets, lifting risk-on positioning into earnings season.
  • CPI is scheduled for Friday but a possible government shutdown could delay or backdate economic releases, raising the risk of a sudden data 'flood' and short-term volatility.
  • Falling rates and the expectation of rate cuts are supporting cyclical sectors: biotech (IBB), homebuilders (ITB), and regional banks (KRE) are receiving notable inflows and leadership rotation.
  • Earnings season is ramping up (Netflix, Tesla, SMCI, Dell noted); strong results from infrastructure/AI-related names like SMCI and Dell are expected to be market movers.
Bullish
  • US-China détente (90-day tariff delay and scheduled meeting) lifting risk appetite.
  • Rate declines should lift biotech and homebuilders, benefiting ETFs like IBB and ITB.
  • Retail platform growth and resilience (Robinhood HOOD) shows strong retail participation.
  • SMCI potentially winning XAI-related deals could drive a near-term earnings pop.
Bearish
  • Possible government shutdown could delay CPI and other data, creating volatility.
  • Flood of backdated economic data later this week may trigger short-term market sell-offs.
  • Overhead technical resistance in SPY around the 670–685 range could cap near-term gains.
  • Staples and some refiners face currency/cost pressure from dollar strength (e.g., STZ, PG).
Paper Gains

Tariffs Cool Off Don't worry about China

10/13/2025, 8:00:08 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Many major economic releases (PPI, retail sales, jobless claims, building permits) are not scheduled this week, leaving markets driven more by headlines and corporate catalysts.
  • The Beige Book will be released midweek and could provide regional Fed color ahead of the next FOMC meeting; Fed speeches remain a market focus.
  • Volume is expected to decline into the holiday season (Halloween → Thanksgiving → Christmas), increasing the chance of choppy or violent price swings.
Bullish
  • Dips are being bought quickly, indicating strong bid-side sentiment into Q4 and potential run toward the Santa Claus rally.
  • Dreamforce could catalyze a Salesforce (CRM) turnaround if management delivers positive messaging or guidance.
  • Bitcoin miner setups and data-center conversions look constructive, giving miners like RIOT and MARA upside.
  • Broadcom-related news is bullish for specific server/data-center plays like SMCI.
Bearish
  • ASML's repeated weak earnings can ripple through the semiconductor supply chain and drag sector shares lower.
  • Low autumn trading volume and holiday season illiquidity increase the risk of violent moves and failed rallies.
  • Market is extended after recent runs, making Friday profit-taking and short-term pullbacks more likely.
Paper Gains

Tariffs Cool Off: "Don't worry about China!" [LIVE]

10/13/2025, 7:03:34 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Global central banks (China, Poland, India cited) have materially increased gold reserves over years, supporting a long‑term bull thesis in gold amid a weaker U.S. dollar and geopolitical risk.
  • This week is light on major economic releases (many PPI, retail sales, jobless claims data absent), so markets will focus on Fed speeches and the Beige Book Wednesday ahead of the next FOMC meeting.
  • Broadcom announced a massive joint development for up to 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators and networking systems, implying multi‑year demand for AI chips and related capex across the semiconductor ecosystem (AVGO mentioned).
  • Market liquidity is thinning into the holiday season (Halloween through Christmas), increasing the chance of sharper intraday swings; October often grinds sideways into Q4 earnings and the Santa Claus rally.
Bullish
  • Broadcom's custom AI accelerator agreement should materially boost semiconductor demand (AVGO).
  • Gold and precious metals rising as central banks diversify away from the dollar.
  • Rare‑earth and materials names ripping higher on supply concerns and tariff headlines (MP, USAR).
  • Buy‑the‑dip behavior and strong flows into miners/miners‑turned‑data‑centers support miners (RIOT, MARA).
  • SMCI momentum and headlines make it a favored dip buy (SMCI).
Bearish
  • ASML earnings risk could drag the whole semiconductor group lower (ASML).
  • NIO shows weak momentum and limited catalysts; risk of further underperformance (NIO).
  • Small‑cap / low liquidity names vulnerable to violent moves and poor option fills.
Paper Gains

Stocks Defy Shutdown - OpenAI AMD Deal

10/6/2025, 6:59:08 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Massive ongoing AI-related data center builds are driving repeated, deal-driven upside across infrastructure providers (SMCI, DELL, Nvidia partners), implying sustained capex-driven revenue growth for suppliers.
  • Regional banking consolidation continues (Fifth Third acquiring Comerica), indicating a wave of M&A among regionals as rates slow their decline, which may reprice some bank equities (FITB, CMA).
  • Japanese market strength (Nikkei record highs) is tied to a dovish shift after ending yield curve control; key Japanese equities and SoftBank have rallied materially, impacting global flows.
  • Fixed income signals: JP Morgan calling municipal bonds a buy and upcoming auctions/FOMC minutes highlight the market's view that near-term rates are likely coming down, supporting risk assets.
Bullish
  • AI data-center buildouts will sustainably lift server and OEM suppliers (SMCI, DELL), driving outsized revenue.
  • Marvell breakout could push toward $100+ if it holds recent support and clears pivots (MRVL).
  • SMCI looks set to report an exceptional quarter and resume a strong uptrend from 'liberation day' levels.
  • PayPal technical setup suggests a move into the mid/upper $70s and then $80+ if it clears resistance.
Bearish
  • SMCI has accounting concerns, server margin pressure, and removal from Nasdaq-100 could weigh on sentiment.
  • Tesla would be in trouble if it breaks below key support around $414, risking a larger downtrend.
  • Regional banks may see consolidation and uneven appreciation; some regionals become acquisition targets rather than organic winners.
  • Short-dated options on volatile names are risky; market seasonality and chops could produce drawdowns.
Paper Gains

Stocks Defy Shutdown - OpenAI-AMD Deal [LIVE]

10/6/2025, 6:12:44 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

NFP week!

9/29/2025, 7:32:51 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Jerome Powell reiterated there is 'no risk-free path' on the Fed's dual mandate and said October rate cuts are not guaranteed, implying near-term policy uncertainty and the potential for higher-for-longer rates that could cap risk assets.
  • August new home sales unexpectedly surged at the fastest pace since early 2022, reinforcing a housing recovery thesis that benefits homebuilders and regional banks which originate many mortgages.
  • Final GDP came in as the fastest two-year growth pace despite weak payroll prints, suggesting productivity/AI-driven efficiency; this divergence may complicate labor-focused market narratives.
  • Consensus Nonfarm Payrolls for Friday are unusually low (~50,000), so the print will likely materially move markets and set a baseline going into seasonal hiring and the holiday ramp (Santa Claus rally setup).
  • Heavy Fed speaking schedule plus JOLTS, ADP, pending home sales, and construction spending make the next week data- and event-driven for short-term trading decisions.
Bullish
  • Housing data surprise (new home sales surge) supports homebuilders and regional banks as durable multi-year value trades.
  • If rates cut pace accelerates over the coming months, rate-sensitive sectors (housing, regional banks) get a tailwind.
  • Alibaba (BABA) exhibiting policy-driven upside; recent price strength suggests momentum backing from regulatory/policy shifts.
  • Event-driven catalysts (Amazon, Google hardware/AI, EV delivery reports) could spark short-term rallies in related names.
Bearish
  • Fed signals that October rate cuts are not guaranteed, raising chances of sticky inflation and market volatility.
  • Broad equity valuations called 'fairly highly valued' by Powell, increasing downside risk if growth disappoints.
  • Dollar strength rebound would push flows to safety, pressuring gold and some equities.
  • Broad semiconductor and mega-cap choke; VIPs like AVGO flagged with technical risk and potential gap fills.
Paper Gains

The High Holy Days

9/22/2025, 7:43:13 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • The Fed (and Canada) cut rates by 25 basis points; the FOMC had at least one dissent, highlighting internal debate on pace of easing and risks.
  • Market focus is shifting: downside employment risk has dominated, but there is rising concern that inflation upside risk could re-emerge, which would complicate the easing narrative.
  • Initial GDP Q2 revisions trimmed growth to ~1.6%; the final Q2 release this week is expected and likely non‑market moving given prior previews.
  • Fed watches core PCE year-over-year as its preferred inflation measure; a hotter-than-expected print (e.g., ~2.9% consensus cited) would spark pronounced market reactions.
  • Seasonality note: the High Holy Days (Rosh Hashanah / Yom Kippur) historically suppress trading volume and can produce choppy, mean-reverting price action.
Bullish
  • Apple: strong iPhone 17 weekend sales, supplier output boosts, and multiple analyst price-target upgrades.
  • NVIDIA: Jensen Huang comments on much larger data‑center/gigawatt needs driving chipset demand.
  • Tesla: price-target upgrades and improved political optics supporting sentiment.
  • Robinhood: event-contract volumes (NFL) ramping quickly, potential material new revenue stream.
  • Rivian: constructive technical base and steady channel breakout attempts; buys on dips sub-$12.
Bearish
  • Rate cuts could spark upside inflation risk, forcing policy rethink and market volatility.
  • Thin volumes around the High Holy Days (Rosh Hashanah/Yom Kippur) increase chop and mean-reversion risk.
  • Long-duration bond yields moving higher could reallocate risk away from growth equities.
  • Amazon sitting at dynamic trend support — high risk of a failed bounce or trampoline rip.
Paper Gains

The High Holy Days [LIVE]

9/22/2025, 7:09:39 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • The Fed (and Canada) cut rates by 25 bps, initiating a rate-cutting cycle that shifts market focus from inflation to downside employment risk; watch payrolls and jobless claims for labor-market direction.
  • Core inflation (the Fed's focus) is tracking near 2.9% year-over-year; a hotter-than-expected PCE/CPI print would jeopardize the easing narrative and likely spark market volatility.
  • Seasonality: the High Holy Days (Rosh Hashanah/Yom Kippur) historically see lower volume and slightly choppier markets (sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur), which may amplify short-term moves.
  • Ahead this week are several Fed speakers and data prints — PMI flash, new home sales, final Q2 GDP (revisionary), and PCE — any surprises could move sentiment and risk assets.
  • Flows: recent moves show rotation out of long-duration bonds into cash, gold, and safe havens; if long yields continue to reprice higher, equity dispersion and sector leadership may shift (watch TLT and dollar moves).
Bullish
  • Apple set up for new all-time highs after a strong breakout and follow-through; continued upside expected.
  • NVIDIA benefiting from AI momentum and near all-time highs; breakout could push it substantially higher.
  • Rivian showing constructive channel structure — buyable dips and multiple short-term resistance break levels.
  • Crypto treasury buying (ETH) and corporate accumulation themes support crypto-related equities/treasury plays.
  • Tesla and Microsoft exhibiting breakout/steady setups that could extend gains if they hold support levels.
Bearish
  • BMNR faces meaningful dilution risk from warrants exercisable at $87.50, which could flood shares if exercised.
  • A hot PCE/CPI print could revive inflation concerns and reverse the current dovish rate-cut narrative.
  • Thin volumes during the High Holy Days increase the chance of choppy, erratic market moves and sharp intraday reversals.
  • Amazon sitting on dynamic trend support — a failed bounce could trigger rapid downside (trampoline rip scenario).
Paper Gains

FOMC Week

9/15/2025, 7:44:46 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • The market is pricing a nearly certain 25 basis point Fed cut on Wednesday (~96% probability), meaning markets may already reflect easier policy and risk a sell-the-news reaction depending on Powell's commentary.
  • Producer Price Index (PPI) came in negative (-0.01) versus the prior 0.7 and a forecast ~0.3, which helped spark rallies by signaling cooler producer inflation and easing pressure on margins.
  • CPI remains above the Fed's 2% target (headline ~2.9%, core ~3%), implying the Fed still watches inflation closely and that cuts will be data- and communication-dependent.
  • Nonfarm payroll revisions showed a large downward revision (nearly a million jobs) in the prior release, undercutting labor strength and supporting the case for rate cuts.
  • Geopolitical/trade developments—China-U.S. trade talks, China targeting NVIDIA, and tariffs/tiktok leverage—create sector-specific risk (notably semiconductors like NVDA) and could influence allocation between tech and cyclicals.
Bullish
  • Market has nearly priced a 25bp Fed cut, supporting risk assets.
  • Elon Musk buyback serves as a strong catalyst for Tesla (TSLA).
  • Apple (AAPL) iPhone 17 pre-orders in China are boosting AAPL sentiment.
  • Small-cap breakout in IWM could drive a violent catch-up rally if confirmed.
Bearish
  • Sell-the-news risk if the Fed cuts but commentary disappoints or guidance is dovish.
  • China targeting NVIDIA (NVDA) in trade talks could pressure NVDA and semiconductor supply chains.
  • FOMC dot-plot dispersion or unexpected dissent could trigger market volatility and a pullback.
Paper Gains

FOMC Week [LIVE]

9/15/2025, 6:53:59 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • The market has nearly fully priced in a 25 basis point Fed cut on Wednesday (about 96% probability), making the Fed statement and dot plot the primary market catalysts.
  • Recent data have been disinflationary: PPI printed ~-0.01 (well below forecasts) and CPI remains around ~2.9% (core ~3%), which has reinforced expectations for rate cuts.
  • Nonfarm payroll revisions showed a large downward adjustment (nearly one million jobs revised lower), and renewed US-China/India trade talks introduce sectoral risks, notably toward NVDA and other semiconductors.
Bullish
  • TSLA: Elon buying shares sparked an eight-month high rally.
  • GOOGL: Strong demand and record pre-orders in key markets keep momentum intact.
  • MSFT: Technical setup suggests a reversal if it holds key levels above 512.5.
Bearish
  • NVDA could be hit by China trade measures, pressuring shares amid resumed trade talks.
  • IWM (small caps) remains stuck and vulnerable to an FOMC-driven breakdown.
  • A potential sell-the-news reaction to a priced-in 25bp Fed cut could trigger broad pullbacks.
Paper Gains

Huge Week Ahead: Apple Event, CPI & Robinhood Joins the S&P500!

9/8/2025, 6:43:51 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is more about how the market digests the print than the print itself; post-NFP ranges often define the monthly high/low, leading to multi-day chop between that day’s high and low.
  • NFP annual revisions are scheduled and could be a surprise given recent large BLS revisions; this has potential to move markets unexpectedly.
  • Consumer inflation expectations came in at 3.2 versus a 3.1 forecast, showing inflation expectations remain elevated.
  • PPI (Wednesday) consensus around 0.3–0.4% month-over-month, but prior upside surprises (e.g., 0.9%) show PPI can be a market mover if results deviate materially.
  • CPI (Thursday) is the week’s major event — core and headline month-over-month prints around 0.3% and year-over-year headline ~2.7% are being watched for implications on Fed policy and market direction.
  • Labor market weekly data: initial jobless claims are elevated into the high 230ks (expect ~240k), and continuing claims remain high; a sustained rise above ~250k would be concerning.
Bullish
  • Robinhood (HOOD) S&P inclusion and upcoming monthly metrics could drive upside.
  • Apple (AAPL) product event may surprise and re-ignite sentiment if meaningful.
  • UnitedHealth (UNH) affirmed guidance, suggesting the bottom may be near.
  • Semiconductor/AI names (NVDA, ARM, MRVL) could see strength from sector rotation.
  • Occidental (OXY) retest of breakout could act as a launchpad for higher levels.
Bearish
  • Macro data surprises (PPI/CPI) could spark downside and volatility.
  • Market likely to trade choppy and range-bound after NFP; avoid chasing rallies.
  • Tesla facing falling US market share pressures.
  • IPO shelf offerings and secondary raises could pressure some stocks (WIX, NCLH).
  • Adobe Firefly not differentiated; product weakness may limit upside for ADBE.
Paper Gains

Huge Week Ahead: Apple Event, CPI & Robinhood Joins the S&P500!

9/8/2025, 6:22:51 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) matter less for the single-day move and more for how the market digests the print; the high and low on NFP often define a month-long range and price typically oscillates between those extremes until a clear breakout occurs.
  • PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday are key near-term inflation data points — materially hotter-than-forecast prints would be market-moving and increase downside risk for equities.
  • Weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims are being watched for signs of labor-market softening; persistent elevated continuing claims would signal weakening labor-market resilience.
  • Several market catalysts this week include the Robinhood Summit (HOOD metrics expected), Apple's product event (AAPL), NVIDIA at a Goldman Sachs conference (NVDA), Treasury auctions and a 10-year auction — these events can act as single-stock or market-wide drivers.
Bullish
  • Robinhood (HOOD) monthly user metrics expected surprisingly strong, supporting further upside.
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) showing signs of a base and may be bottoming after earnings pullback.
  • Occidental (OXY) pullback retest could act as a launchpad back toward the $50s.
Bearish
  • Macro week looks choppy with risk that a hotter-than-expected PPI/CPI could trigger downside.
  • Indexes (SPY/QQQ) may lead markets down, making individual stock rallies hard to sustain.
  • NFP high/low often marks the monthly extremes — failure to break the box suggests range-bound action.
Paper Gains

S&P 500 REBALANCE LIVE | What Company will get added to the Index

9/5/2025, 10:01:56 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • S&P 500 rebalance mechanics: the quarterly rebalance is announced the first Friday of March, June, September and December, with additions effective on the third Friday of those months; additions typically provoke buying from index funds and cause short-term market moves.
  • Policy tailwinds can materially change company outlooks: Oscar Health (OSCR) noted that extension of ACA marketplace subsidies beyond 2025 would meaningfully boost its outlook (management cited a 15–20% upside for 2026–27 estimates if subsidies are extended).
  • Mega-cap and corporate capital flows: headlines noted tech mega-caps reaching combined ~ $21 trillion and Meta pursuing large-scale, debt-funded AI data-center builds (~$26B financing), underscoring ongoing big-tech capex and index concentration effects that influence market structure and index rebalances.
Bullish
  • S&P inclusion tends to drive sustained buying pressure from index funds.
  • Robinhood and AppLovin inclusion should attract passive flows and visibility (HOOD, APP).
  • DraftKings and Disney could benefit from football-related engagement and streaming/sports rights upside (DKNG, DIS).
Bearish
  • S&P additions can produce choppy, short-term volatility and sell-the-news moves after initial spikes.
  • Stocks with weak fundamentals or stretched narratives risk underperformance despite index inclusion (e.g., ENPH, BMNR).
  • Large valuation scenarios (e.g., hypothetical Tesla market-cap math) are unrealistic and imply downside risk for TSLA.
Paper Gains

NVDA Earnings Week

8/25/2025, 8:50:49 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Jackson Hole comments from Jerome Powell were dovish and flipped market sentiment, raising expectations for future Fed rate cuts and driving a large intraweek rally (impacts NVDA, tech leadership).
  • Fed minutes show FOMC members view inflation as the primary risk but the policy focus is shifting toward the labor market; employment data and jobless claims now carry increased weight for rate expectations.
  • Market pricing (Polymarket) implies a high probability (>80%) of at least one rate cut by year-end, with October showing roughly 50/50 odds of change; the two-year rate is the Fed’s primary control, not long-term bonds (TLT).
  • PCE (Friday core PCE) is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; a surprise upside in PCE (possibly fed by recent PPI strength) would likely reverse the dovish market reaction and be market-moving.
Bullish
  • NVIDIA earnings could spark a market rally and remain the focal bullish catalyst (NVDA).
  • Home Depot showed resilient price action despite misses, signaling possible retail strength (HD).
  • Tesla is constructive if it holds above ~338 — bullish continuation possible (TSLA).
  • Rivian viewed as a potential generational buy if it holds low levels (RIVN).
  • Regional banks (KRE) could rebound if duration/duration-risk stress eases.
Bearish
  • TLT (long 20+ year bonds) is not controlled by the Fed and is a risky long for rate-cut trades.
  • Walmart missed earnings and showed weak price action, signaling downside pressure for retailers (WMT).
  • Snapchat lacks convincing leadership and a durable moat — ‘hard pass’ on SNAP as an investment.
  • Short-term stop-hunt risk and near-term breakdowns for names like Roblox and Celsius (RBLX, CEL).
  • Buying at resistance in a market transition is risky; late Friday buyers may become sell liquidity.
Paper Gains

NVDA Earnings Week [LIVE]

8/25/2025, 7:05:27 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Market-implied probabilities point to substantial odds of future Fed cuts later this year, with October around 50% and December near 48%, shifting focus from immediate inflation prints to the labor market and employment data.
  • Friday's Core PCE release is the key market-moving data this week; a surprise upside would likely re-tighten Fed expectations and pressure risk assets.
  • Recent PPI strength is an outlier that historically feeds into consumer inflation measures with a 2–3 month lag, so persistent PPI could lift CPI/PCE readings later and change the Fed narrative.
  • Weekly data like jobless claims are being watched more closely because the market is tilting toward labor-market sensitivity; employment deterioration would keep the Fed more cautious on cuts.
Bullish
  • Home Depot showed resilient price action after misses, bought into weakness (HD).
  • Buy-the-dip mentality remains alive; short-term bounces likely in tech ETFs (QQQ).
  • Apple run-up into the iPhone event could provide a near-term tailwind (AAPL).
  • Rivian viewed as a potential generational buy at current depressed levels (RIVN).
Bearish
  • A materially hotter-than-expected PCE print could trigger a sharp market sell-off.
  • Walmart missed and is trading down, signaling retail weakness that could drag broader stocks (WMT).
  • Earnings shocks (notably NVIDIA) or disappointing software names could flip the week's tone (NVDA, SNOW).
  • Buying at resistance in a market that may be transitioning risks painful whipsaws.
  • Leadership and execution concerns at Snapchat undermine long-term investor confidence (SNAP).
Paper Gains

Jackson Hole Week

8/18/2025, 8:06:11 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Jackson Hole Symposium (Wednesday–Friday) will concentrate Fed speak and minutes; Powell's Friday remarks and dissenter commentary (e.g., Bowman, Waller) create elevated policy-driven volatility risk.
  • CPI printed roughly in line with expectations, producing little market reaction, but PPI surprised materially to the upside versus consensus, adding uncertainty to near-term inflation outlook and Fed reaction function.
  • Geopolitical developments around Russia–Ukraine remain active and are driving flows into defense and oil stocks; such headlines can produce sudden overnight gaps and volatility.
  • Seasonality and retail patterns: late-August/back-to-school flows may increase volume after summer doldrums; September historically shows patchy weakness but timing and extent vary.
  • Semiconductor-specific risks include potential tariffs (reportedly discussed up to 300%) and supply-chain/earnings noise ahead of NVDA earnings, which could keep the sector muted for ~two weeks.
Bullish
  • UNH sentiment boosted by large institutional buying (including Buffett) — momentum could continue.
  • Trade Desk failed-breakdown setup: reclaim of key levels suggests near-term support (TTD).
  • Lyft showed strong recovery from low levels — upside into mid-to-high teens possible (LYFT).
  • Robinhood and other retail names showing constructive multi-day balance and SR flips (HOOD).
Bearish
  • Semiconductor sector faces near-term headwinds from AMAT post-earnings dump and possible 300% tariffs (AMAT, AMD, NVDA).
  • Macroeconomic headline risk (Jackson Hole, Powell, Fed dissents) could spark volatility and chop across markets.
  • Defense and oil names may drop on worsening Russia–Ukraine headlines (BA, oil & defense stocks).
  • Disney looks vulnerable, trading in a wide 85–120 range with risk back toward the low end (DIS).
  • If the dollar (DXY) rallies while equal-weighted RSP breaks down, broad risk-off and flight-to-cash likely.
Paper Gains

Jackson Hole Week [LIVE]

8/18/2025, 6:45:54 PM
Open summary
Economic Summary
  • Jackson Hole week (Fed speeches, FOMC minutes) concentrates policy commentary Wednesday–Friday, making market reactions to Fed rhetoric more important than usual.
  • PPI surprised materially versus expectations, creating market volatility and prompting deeper digging into services-driven producer inflation dynamics.
  • Semiconductor sector faces layered risks: headlines about potential high tariffs and company-specific post-earnings weakness (AMAT) could stall the group until NVDA earnings.
  • 13F season caused notable flows (Warren Buffett buying UNH), which can change sector sentiment quickly and influence short-term market leadership.
  • Seasonality notes: August is a coin-flip month with historically increased choppiness into September; watch price action rather than calendar assumptions.
Bullish
  • Buffett and other 13F buying (e.g., UNH) can shift sentiment and lift sector leadership.
  • If NVIDIA (NVDA) reports strong earnings, it could re-ignite tech-led market rally.
  • Some names reclaiming monthly/quarterly structure (UNH, TTD) suggest durable technical turnarounds.
  • Equal-weight strength (RSP) would indicate rotation into broad market participation, supporting gains.
Bearish
  • Jackson Hole/Fed speeches this week increase policy risk and can trigger sharp volatility or a choppy reversal.
  • Semiconductor risks: possible tariffs (headline of up to 300%) plus AMAT post-earnings weakness could drag the whole semi complex.
  • Geopolitical headlines (Russia–Ukraine) and defense/oil moves can produce sudden headline-driven selloffs in related names.
  • Index technicals: as long as SPY stays below the pre-market high (~644), bears have the near-term edge.
Paper Gains

AltCoin August

8/11/2025, 8:34:04 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

AltCoin August [LIVE]

8/11/2025, 7:06:14 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Overheated Too Far Too Fast

8/4/2025, 7:49:57 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Overheated? Too far too fast? [LIVE]

8/4/2025, 6:27:48 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Looking in to the software sector and a new ETF's For Exposure [LIVE]

7/30/2025, 7:13:53 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

1000 Earnings Reports & MEGA Macro

7/28/2025, 9:11:51 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

1000 Earnings Reports & MEGA Macro [LIVE]

7/28/2025, 6:35:58 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Don't Count Them Out!

7/21/2025, 8:17:42 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Don't Count Them Out! [LIVE]

7/21/2025, 6:29:41 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

EARNINGS SEASON HAS ARRIVED

7/14/2025, 11:19:14 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

EARNINGS SEASON HAS ARRIVED! [LIVE]

7/14/2025, 6:11:22 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Overheated Too Far Too Fast

7/7/2025, 8:34:03 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Overheated? Too Far Too Fast? [LIVE]

7/7/2025, 6:20:25 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Can you believe ANYTHING?

6/23/2025, 7:42:45 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Can you believe ANYTHING??? [LIVE]

6/23/2025, 6:39:50 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Did you really panic?

6/16/2025, 7:27:25 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Did you really panic? [LIVE]

6/16/2025, 6:10:14 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

RoboTaxi Day & WWDC [LIVE]

6/9/2025, 5:56:46 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

TACO [LIVE]

6/2/2025, 5:41:48 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

MOOO DEEZ TARIFFS [LIVE]

5/19/2025, 6:04:16 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Tariff Roll Back [LIVE]

5/12/2025, 5:54:56 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Do NOT chase - FOMC week [LIVE]

5/5/2025, 6:12:11 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Rare 100% accurate signal just triggered! [LIVE]

4/28/2025, 6:12:41 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Easter Tariff Retaliation! [LIVE]

4/21/2025, 5:53:33 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

The trap is set!

4/14/2025, 5:58:50 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Can you believe anything?

4/7/2025, 5:50:25 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Liberation Day! The beginning or the end?

3/31/2025, 5:55:38 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

We are SO back

3/24/2025, 6:09:33 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Where are we going?!?!

3/17/2025, 5:19:56 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Is it really over?

3/14/2025, 6:09:42 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

When will the pain stop?

3/10/2025, 5:58:59 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Shorts Covering ahead of NFP & Powell

3/3/2025, 6:29:28 PM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

NVDA to the rescue?

2/25/2025, 7:04:49 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.

Paper Gains

Tariff Turmoil

2/11/2025, 6:50:38 AM
Open summary
Bullish

No bullish cases captured.

Bearish

No bearish cases captured.