Paper Gains
Did you really panic?
6/16/2025, 7:27:25 PM
Economic Summary
- CPI prints came in softer than consensus (month over month core ~0.1 vs 0.3 expected), muting near-term inflationary pressure and easing some hawkish expectations for the Fed.
- PPI and other inflation indicators also softened month over month, while consumer sentiment remained subdued near 60.5, suggesting mixed demand-side health.
- Treasury auctions are front-and-center: a well-received 10-year auction acted as a market pivot last week, and an upcoming 20-year auction plus FOMC midweek are key catalysts for rates and equities.
- Seasonality appears disrupted this year (likely trade-war/market-driven); usual July strength may be delayed, and traders should not over-rely on calendar-based plays.
Bullish
- Defense/gold/oil often rally during conflict.
- Palantir benefits from defense and AI narrative.
- AMD shows momentum breakout with room toward 130–140s.
- GLD seen as multi-decade breakout; long-term bullish.
Bearish
- Geopolitical conflict and missile headlines creating whipsaw, trap-prone market action.
- FOMC week plus large Treasury auctions increases volatility and downside risk for traders.
- Choppy seasonality and off-calendar patterns reduce reliable bullish seasonality trades.
- Dividend and corporate-specific risks could pressure individual names (example: UNH).
Bullish tickers
PLTRAMDGLDSMCI
Bearish tickers
BAAMZNUNHAAPL
PLTR
Bullish
Unique hybrid of defense and AI/growth narratives positions it to outperform during conflict-driven flows.
Bearish
May be volatile and defense positioning could be overbought in a risk-off snapback.
AMD
2 price targets
130140
Bullish
Recently cleared key moving averages with room to run toward the mid 130s–140s on continuation.
Bearish
Highly volatile; rapid reversals possible and short-term pain likely if momentum fails.
BA
2 price targets
213.21217
Bullish
Long-term thesis intact for patient holders, but needs clean daily closes above key levels first.
Bearish
Headline risk and failure to hold decisive breakout levels make it unsafe for near-term longs.
AAPL
2 price targets
208250
Bullish
If Apple closes and holds above 208, it could resume an uptrend toward 250.
Bearish
Still in a defined downtrend and underperforming until it reclaims key resistance.
UNH
1 price targets
326
Bullish
Sideways/defensive stock; could stabilize if investor confidence returns and it clears the 326 level.
Bearish
Dividend-related flows and potential corporate risks create downside risk; not likely to rally absent clearing 326.
AMZN
1 price targets
217
Bullish
Longer-term holder upside remains, but needs a clean breakthrough and hold above resistance levels.
Bearish
Choppy price structure and confirmed resistance make pressing a long here poor risk/reward.
GLD
Bullish
Seen as a long-term breakout; expected to benefit from conflict-driven flows and dollar weakness.
Bearish
If dollar reverses sharply higher, gold/GLD could be pressured.
SMCI
1 price targets
48
Bullish
Technicals point to a move toward 48 if multiple closes hold above breakout level.
Bearish
Company-specific concerns and volatile sentiment make it queasy near-term.
MSTR
1 price targets
390
Bullish
Needs a clean close above 390 area to reaccelerate; otherwise stay sidelined.
Bearish
Tight consolidation and failed breakouts could invite sellers; needs decisive clearance.
NVO
2 price targets
7083
Bullish
Breaking downtrend and higher-low structure could lead to multi-month gains if momentum holds.
Bearish
Sector/pipeline risks and cyclicality could limit near-term upside despite breakout attempts.
OSCR
Bullish
If it can clear the consolidation box, it may offer a directional opportunity.
Bearish
Inside consolidation warrants no action; avoid entering until clear trend forms.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpJerome PowellPatrickHeatherEddieJohnnyVictorMelJuneScottyCleoZoltarBobbyManuelMattSavage