Paper Gains
Don't Count Them Out! [LIVE]
7/21/2025, 6:29:41 PM
Economic Summary
- Earnings season is the week’s focus with major reports (Google/Alphabet, Tesla, ServiceNow) potentially driving pivots and post-earnings chop.
- Macro calendar is crowded next week: NFP, FOMC, and PCE — market expects an elevated chance (~55%) of a rate cut in Sept/Oct, which could be bullish for equities.
- Market remains headline-driven and volatile (example: Trump’s comment about firing Jerome Powell caused a rapid drop-and-recover), implying sensitivity to political and Fed commentary.
- Seasonality: late-June/early-July historically strong; Apple and Google have strong seasonal trends this month and could extend leadership into earnings.
- Breadth note: QQQ has been stronger than SPY; diamonds/industrials/IWM are lagging and represent catch-up opportunities if the rally broadens.
- Crypto and AI headlines (Ethereum strength, Meta/Mark Zuckerberg large AI investments) are supporting risk appetite and tech/multicap rotation.
Bullish
- Rate cuts (possible Sept/Oct) could fuel another leg higher for equities.
- Buy-the-dip mentality remains dominant — dip buys are the base case.
- QQQ and mega-cap leaders (NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL) are leading the market higher.
- CRM and industrial 'diamond' names have catch-up upside if breadth improves.
Bearish
- Microsoft appears stretched with a lower high and may be poised for a pullback.
- ASML faces regulatory friction and China export constraints, hurting growth prospects.
- A breach of SPY support near 626.27 would indicate a shift to bearish market regime.
- High-flying small caps and recent hot names (SMCI, Rocket Lab) look overheated and vulnerable.
Bullish tickers
AAPLGOOGLNVDAQQQCRM
Bearish tickers
MSFTASMLUNHSMCIRKLBLYFTSPY
AAPL
2 price targets
222216
Bullish
Strong seasonal trend and rising India production; likely to attempt a push through 216 toward the 200-day (~222).
Bearish
Pullbacks expected into the 210–216 area; can fail to clear the 200-day if momentum fades.
GOOGL
Bullish
Seasonal strength and major earnings this week could extend mega-cap leadership.
Bearish
Earnings-related pivots could trigger chop or sell-the-news if expectations are unmet.
NVDA
Bullish
NVIDIA remains a market leader after surpassing Apple in market cap; AI tailwinds supportive.
Bearish
Large concentration risk if AI enthusiasm cools, though no explicit price target cited.
MSFT
1 price targets
525
Bullish
If momentum resumes it can gap and run, but speaker prefers selling premium rather than buying into earnings.
Bearish
Described as stretched with a recent lower high; could see a meaningful pullback from current levels.
ASML
Bullish
Fundamentally critical supplier for advanced semiconductors, but near-term risks are highlighted.
Bearish
Facing regulatory pressure around China sales and is vulnerable to geopolitical/export constraints.
UNH
1 price targets
267
Bullish
No clear bullish thesis given — viewed as weak in the near term.
Bearish
Losing short-term support and trending lower; may take time to recover ahead of earnings.
CRM
2 price targets
267300
Bullish
Strong rebound setup: if it clears the 20/50-day and 267 resistance it can trajectory toward the 200-day (~300).
Bearish
Has overhead resistance at the 20/50-day and prior week high; failure there would stall the move.
SMCI
2 price targets
6049.7
Bullish
If it holds key retest levels, it can continue higher but carries event/issuance risk.
Bearish
Extended and vulnerable to an offering; sharp moves could be reversed by share issuance.
RKLB
2 price targets
4839.98
Bullish
Has momentum, but risk of sharp pullback given the speed of the move.
Bearish
Described as very hot and extended; recommended to buy protective puts rather than sell calls.
LYFT
Bullish
If it reclaims lost momentum quickly it can resume the squeeze, but risk is elevated.
Bearish
Squeeze setup failed and lost momentum; needs immediate recovery or the setup is invalidated.
SPY
Bullish
Open-above/close-above NFP levels keep the market in a buy-the-dip regime; retests of 626.27 are buyable.
Bearish
A decisive breach below 626.27 would flip the market bearish and target lower levels (around low 621).
QQQ
Bullish
Has been the strongest index/segment and leads breadth; wide upside if leaders hold.
Bearish
Could experience post-earnings chop or sell-the-news on major tech reports.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpJerome PowellBill PulteTom LeeMark ZuckerbergEvanElon MuskMichelle BowmanMiss CleoPatrick