Paper Gains
FOMC Week
9/15/2025, 7:44:46 PM
Economic Summary
- The market is pricing a nearly certain 25 basis point Fed cut on Wednesday (~96% probability), meaning markets may already reflect easier policy and risk a sell-the-news reaction depending on Powell's commentary.
- Producer Price Index (PPI) came in negative (-0.01) versus the prior 0.7 and a forecast ~0.3, which helped spark rallies by signaling cooler producer inflation and easing pressure on margins.
- CPI remains above the Fed's 2% target (headline ~2.9%, core ~3%), implying the Fed still watches inflation closely and that cuts will be data- and communication-dependent.
- Nonfarm payroll revisions showed a large downward revision (nearly a million jobs) in the prior release, undercutting labor strength and supporting the case for rate cuts.
- Geopolitical/trade developments—China-U.S. trade talks, China targeting NVIDIA, and tariffs/tiktok leverage—create sector-specific risk (notably semiconductors like NVDA) and could influence allocation between tech and cyclicals.
Bullish
- Market has nearly priced a 25bp Fed cut, supporting risk assets.
- Elon Musk buyback serves as a strong catalyst for Tesla (TSLA).
- Apple (AAPL) iPhone 17 pre-orders in China are boosting AAPL sentiment.
- Small-cap breakout in IWM could drive a violent catch-up rally if confirmed.
Bearish
- Sell-the-news risk if the Fed cuts but commentary disappoints or guidance is dovish.
- China targeting NVIDIA (NVDA) in trade talks could pressure NVDA and semiconductor supply chains.
- FOMC dot-plot dispersion or unexpected dissent could trigger market volatility and a pullback.
Bullish tickers
TSLAAAPLGOOGLAMZNMSFTIWMUNHMETA
Bearish tickers
NVDASPY
TSLA
4 price targets
420450600690
Bullish
Elon Musk's large insider buy and technical breakout provide a clear catalyst and path higher.
Bearish
Could be vulnerable to sell-the-news or extended profit-taking; targets are months out and require sustained momentum.
MSFT
5 price targets
512.5518525540560
Bullish
A monthly/weekly failed breakdown and hold above ~512.5 would set up a multi-step reversal toward the 525–560 area.
Bearish
Earnings reaction and broader FOMC risk could keep MSFT range-bound or cause another pullback.
UNH
3 price targets
367.5375420
Bullish
If UNH holds bullish retracement levels (~330) and clears ~362–367, it can resume a run toward ~420.
Bearish
Ex-dividend effects and near-term pullbacks could pressure shares into a basing phase.
NVDA
Bullish
Still a core AI/semiconductor beneficiary; long-term demand dynamics remain supportive if trade risk eases.
Bearish
Targeted in China-U.S. trade negotiations, which could create headline-driven downside pressure.
IWM
2 price targets
240241
Bullish
A confirmed breakout above ~240–241 could unleash a rapid catch-up rally in small caps.
Bearish
Has not yet confirmed a breakout and is vulnerable to FOMC-driven reversals.
AAPL
Bullish
Strong iPhone 17 pre-orders in China act as a demand catalyst supporting AAPL shares.
Bearish
Exposure to trade/tariff headlines and near-term overhead resistance may cap moves.
GOOGL
Bullish
Continued growth has driven major market cap milestones and remains a long-term buy-if-held.
Bearish
Large-cap valuations leave some sensitivity to macro rotation or profit-taking.
AMZN
Bullish
Holding critical support could set AMZN up for a further leg higher.
Bearish
Earnings or macro sensitivity could keep AMZN choppy around its monthly box.
META
Bullish
MetaConnect product/AR announcements could boost sentiment and related suppliers.
Bearish
Regulatory or platform risks (e.g., TikTok/ban dynamics) could create downside catalysts.
SPY
Bullish
Price action and breadth since NFP suggest the market remains in an upside-biased posture unless Fed commentary changes that.
Bearish
Overall market faces sell-the-news risk around the Fed decision and dot-plot surprises.
People mentioned
JasonEvanElon MuskDonald TrumpJerome PowellMark ZuckerbergDmitryPatrickVladCleoAsian Steve