Paper Gains
FOMC Week [LIVE]
9/15/2025, 6:53:59 PM
Economic Summary
- The market has nearly fully priced in a 25 basis point Fed cut on Wednesday (about 96% probability), making the Fed statement and dot plot the primary market catalysts.
- Recent data have been disinflationary: PPI printed ~-0.01 (well below forecasts) and CPI remains around ~2.9% (core ~3%), which has reinforced expectations for rate cuts.
- Nonfarm payroll revisions showed a large downward adjustment (nearly one million jobs revised lower), and renewed US-China/India trade talks introduce sectoral risks, notably toward NVDA and other semiconductors.
Bullish
- TSLA: Elon buying shares sparked an eight-month high rally.
- GOOGL: Strong demand and record pre-orders in key markets keep momentum intact.
- MSFT: Technical setup suggests a reversal if it holds key levels above 512.5.
Bearish
- NVDA could be hit by China trade measures, pressuring shares amid resumed trade talks.
- IWM (small caps) remains stuck and vulnerable to an FOMC-driven breakdown.
- A potential sell-the-news reaction to a priced-in 25bp Fed cut could trigger broad pullbacks.
Bullish tickers
TSLAGOOGLMSFT
Bearish tickers
NVDAIWM
TSLA
3 price targets
450600690
Bullish
Elon Musk purchasing shares and breakout momentum support further upside targets over months.
Bearish
Could see profit-taking or sell-the-news after a big pre-FOMC run; volatile around headlines.
GOOGL
1 price targets
250
Bullish
Strong demand (China iPhone-style analogy) and multi-year run make it a long-term winner.
Bearish
Trade/tariff headlines and macro sentiment could pare gains despite strong demand.
NVDA
Bullish
Long-term structural AI demand remains a positive, though near-term trade headlines could weigh.
Bearish
Explicitly targeted by China in trade negotiations, creating regulatory and demand risk.
AAPL
Bullish
iPhone 17 pre-orders in China and resume of trade talks offer upside catalysts.
Bearish
Trade/tariff headlines could cap upside despite strong pre-orders.
AMZN
2 price targets
231234
Bullish
Holding key volume shelf (~231) and earnings catalyst could drive further gains if broken above 234.
Bearish
Overhead resistance around recent highs; FOMC risk could sap momentum.
MSFT
5 price targets
512.5518525540560
Bullish
Failed breakdown and holding over 512.5 sets up a multi-step reversal toward 525+.
Bearish
FOMC or fundamental shocks could derail technical reversal attempts.
IWM
2 price targets
240241
Bullish
If small caps break above 240–241, a violent catch-up breakout could follow.
Bearish
Stuck sideways with December-range risk; susceptible to FOMC-driven collapses.
UNH
3 price targets
367375420
Bullish
Basing after a breakout could lead to 420 if it clears 375 and fundamental meetings progress.
Bearish
May stall near resistance around 375; short-term basing expected.
RKT
2 price targets
25.5828
Bullish
Catalyst or momentum could push it toward mid-to-high 20s quickly.
Bearish
Likely to trade sideways until a catalyst; short-interest can amplify moves.
BMNR
2 price targets
5565
Bullish
If it breaks key resistance, it can spike quickly due to short interest and momentum.
Bearish
High volatility and potential for sharp pullbacks; tread carefully.
META
Bullish
Meta Connect and new AR glasses are product catalysts that could boost related shares.
Bearish
TikTok ban or regulatory headlines could create near-term volatility.
People mentioned
JasonEvanElon MuskJerome PowellMark ZuckerbergPatrickGregVladMiss CleoDonald Trump