Paper Gains
Huge Week Ahead: Apple Event, CPI & Robinhood Joins the S&P500!
9/8/2025, 6:43:51 PM
Economic Summary
- Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is more about how the market digests the print than the print itself; post-NFP ranges often define the monthly high/low, leading to multi-day chop between that day’s high and low.
- NFP annual revisions are scheduled and could be a surprise given recent large BLS revisions; this has potential to move markets unexpectedly.
- Consumer inflation expectations came in at 3.2 versus a 3.1 forecast, showing inflation expectations remain elevated.
- PPI (Wednesday) consensus around 0.3–0.4% month-over-month, but prior upside surprises (e.g., 0.9%) show PPI can be a market mover if results deviate materially.
- CPI (Thursday) is the week’s major event — core and headline month-over-month prints around 0.3% and year-over-year headline ~2.7% are being watched for implications on Fed policy and market direction.
- Labor market weekly data: initial jobless claims are elevated into the high 230ks (expect ~240k), and continuing claims remain high; a sustained rise above ~250k would be concerning.
Bullish
- Robinhood (HOOD) S&P inclusion and upcoming monthly metrics could drive upside.
- Apple (AAPL) product event may surprise and re-ignite sentiment if meaningful.
- UnitedHealth (UNH) affirmed guidance, suggesting the bottom may be near.
- Semiconductor/AI names (NVDA, ARM, MRVL) could see strength from sector rotation.
- Occidental (OXY) retest of breakout could act as a launchpad for higher levels.
Bearish
- Macro data surprises (PPI/CPI) could spark downside and volatility.
- Market likely to trade choppy and range-bound after NFP; avoid chasing rallies.
- Tesla facing falling US market share pressures.
- IPO shelf offerings and secondary raises could pressure some stocks (WIX, NCLH).
- Adobe Firefly not differentiated; product weakness may limit upside for ADBE.
Bullish tickers
HOODAAPLUNHNVDAARMMRVLOXY
Bearish tickers
TSLAWIXNCLHADBE
HOOD
Bullish
S&P inclusion and expected strong August user metrics are potential catalysts for upside.
Bearish
Sentiment could fade if monthly user metrics disappoint or broader indexes weaken; don’t chase rallies.
AAPL
Bullish
A surprising iPhone/‘iPhone Air’ announcement could reignite excitement and move the stock higher.
Bearish
Market sentiment is low and no obvious AI upside is priced in; a flop at the product event could weigh on the name.
UNH
2 price targets
310328
Bullish
Affirmed annual earnings outlook suggests the downside may be limited and the bottom could be in.
Bearish
Post-dividend moves and short-term pullbacks into the low 300s are possible despite affirmed guidance.
TSLA
Bullish
Longer-term turnaround narratives remain possible but near-term pressure exists.
Bearish
US market share declines are a headwind for revenue growth and sentiment.
NVDA
Bullish
Presence at conferences and ongoing AI demand keep NVDA as a potential sector leader.
Bearish
High expectations could leave NVDA vulnerable to any negative catalyst.
OXY
2 price targets
4355
Bullish
Retest of breakout near the low-40s looks like an attractive pullback area with upside into the 50s possible.
Bearish
Breaks below the retest area would invalidate the bullish launch-pad thesis.
CRWD
2 price targets
409.73457
Bullish
Post-earnings base and monthly support near $409 suggest a constructive setup with targets into the mid-400s.
Bearish
Significant drawdowns from prior highs mean further downside is possible if broader indices roll over.
CRM
Bullish
On the mend; needs more follow-through to confirm recovery.
Bearish
Could struggle if macro-driven index weakness persists.
MRVL
Bullish
Showing signs of life; could benefit from semiconductor strength.
Bearish
Semi cyclicality leaves it exposed to negative macro surprises.
ARM
Bullish
Semiconductor tailwinds could lift ARM and related names.
Bearish
IPO/early public volatile trading could create downside risk.
APP
Bullish
S&P additions and solid product momentum can be constructive for AppLovin.
Bearish
Competitive pressure and execution risk could limit upside.
NCLH
Bullish
Recovery in travel demand could support a rebound over time.
Bearish
Shelf offering and dilution headlines pressured the stock recently.
WIX
Bullish
Business fundamentals could recover absent funding pressure.
Bearish
Shelf offerings triggered selling; dilution risk remains a concern.
ADBE
Bullish
Broad creative software franchise provides optionality if AI features gain traction.
Bearish
Firefly not differentiated enough; product commentary suggests limited incremental upside.
People mentioned
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