Paper Gains
Is it really over?
3/14/2025, 6:09:42 PM
Economic Summary
- Consumer sentiment printed 57.9, the lowest reading since June 2022, highlighting weak consumer confidence and potential headwinds for growth and retail spending.
- The Fed’s rate decision and dot plot (Wednesday, March 19) plus jobless claims and NFP readings are imminent catalysts that market participants are watching closely.
- Market positioning and flows are mixed: money is not clearly rushing to traditional safety (TLT, cash); instead gold is bid, implying markets are pricing a stagflationary or disinflationary environment.
- Volatility (high VIX) is driving overshoots and extreme intraday moves, making sizing and ammunition (cash) crucial for investors to buy dips or generate income.
Bullish
- Very bullish on Robinhood (HOOD) as a core conviction, wants to add on deep pullbacks.
- Prefer being long Bitcoin (BTC) here rather than short; closer to local lows.
- Gold is being bid as a stagflation/disinflation hedge and could outperform.
- Income strategies (covered calls, iron condors) look attractive in a choppy range.
Bearish
- Market teetering between a standard correction and a potential bear market amid political uncertainty (Trump rhetoric).
- Consumer sentiment plunged to 57.9 (lowest since June 2022), signaling weak retail confidence and downside risk.
- Altcoins and small caps look vulnerable—speaker calls altcoins 'toast' and would short XRP aggressively.
- High volatility/VIX can cause overshoots and extended drawdowns beyond initial stop levels.
Bullish tickers
HOODBTCGLDPLTRTSLA
Bearish tickers
XRPIWM
HOOD
3 price targets
383325
Bullish
Speaker's largest holding and long-term conviction; intends to buy more on deep pullbacks (likes sub-25).
Bearish
Oversized positions are risky; experienced a ~20% down day and is vulnerable to VIX-driven overshoots.
TSLA
3 price targets
250210275
Bullish
Open to accumulating; potential dead-cat bounce to the mid-275s if conditions permit.
Bearish
Volatile; trimmed after losing 325 level and remains at risk if below ~220.
PLTR
1 price targets
50
Bullish
Speaker would look to buy if Palantir falls below $50.
Bearish
Subject to broader market volatility and downside risk if macro worsens.
BTC
2 price targets
7000060000
Bullish
Prefers being long Bitcoin here rather than short; could still see large bounces higher.
Bearish
Not super bullish short-term; expects potential retest to low-70ks or 60ks.
SPY
3 price targets
565575530
Bullish
Holding above ~565 would allow a retest of 575 and potentially higher, but exposure should be reduced on rallies.
Bearish
Breaching ~550 could trigger another leg down toward mid-530s and lock in lower lows.
GLD
Bullish
Gold is being bid as a hedge against stagflation or slowing growth; market positioning favors gold.
XRP
1 price targets
2.5
Bearish
Speaker would short XRP aggressively; expects lower highs and substantial downside.
NVDA
Bullish
NVIDIA events (GTC) are typically market movers and can create significant short-term volatility/opportunity.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpJessePatrickKellyTom LeeVlad