Paper Gains
Jackson Hole Week
8/18/2025, 8:06:11 PM
Economic Summary
- Jackson Hole Symposium (Wednesday–Friday) will concentrate Fed speak and minutes; Powell's Friday remarks and dissenter commentary (e.g., Bowman, Waller) create elevated policy-driven volatility risk.
- CPI printed roughly in line with expectations, producing little market reaction, but PPI surprised materially to the upside versus consensus, adding uncertainty to near-term inflation outlook and Fed reaction function.
- Geopolitical developments around Russia–Ukraine remain active and are driving flows into defense and oil stocks; such headlines can produce sudden overnight gaps and volatility.
- Seasonality and retail patterns: late-August/back-to-school flows may increase volume after summer doldrums; September historically shows patchy weakness but timing and extent vary.
- Semiconductor-specific risks include potential tariffs (reportedly discussed up to 300%) and supply-chain/earnings noise ahead of NVDA earnings, which could keep the sector muted for ~two weeks.
Bullish
- UNH sentiment boosted by large institutional buying (including Buffett) — momentum could continue.
- Trade Desk failed-breakdown setup: reclaim of key levels suggests near-term support (TTD).
- Lyft showed strong recovery from low levels — upside into mid-to-high teens possible (LYFT).
- Robinhood and other retail names showing constructive multi-day balance and SR flips (HOOD).
Bearish
- Semiconductor sector faces near-term headwinds from AMAT post-earnings dump and possible 300% tariffs (AMAT, AMD, NVDA).
- Macroeconomic headline risk (Jackson Hole, Powell, Fed dissents) could spark volatility and chop across markets.
- Defense and oil names may drop on worsening Russia–Ukraine headlines (BA, oil & defense stocks).
- Disney looks vulnerable, trading in a wide 85–120 range with risk back toward the low end (DIS).
- If the dollar (DXY) rallies while equal-weighted RSP breaks down, broad risk-off and flight-to-cash likely.
Bullish tickers
UNHTTDLYFTHOOD
Bearish tickers
AMATBADISNVDA
NVDA
3 price targets
184181191
Bullish
Still in a multi-day balance—pre-earnings push could drive another leg if it reclaims key highs.
Bearish
On edge into earnings; intra-day failures and inability to close over key highs argue for hedging.
AMD
1 price targets
185
Bullish
Product-cycle narrative (competitive Ryzen line) supports upside in a constructive replay with confirmation.
Bearish
Recent parabolic move to ~185 looked overheated and faded quickly; vulnerable to sector weakness.
AMAT
Bullish
If AMAT stabilizes, it could remove a drag and allow semi rebound into NVDA earnings.
Bearish
Dumped after earnings and pressured the whole semi sector; could anchor further downside in tooling names.
BA
Bullish
Weakness may create a base if headlines stabilize and fundamentals reassert.
Bearish
Suffered heavy selling on geopolitical headlines; defense exposure makes it sensitive to headline risk.
UNH
4 price targets
249310325425
Bullish
Large institutional buying (including Buffett) can shift healthcare sentiment and underwrite further upside.
Bearish
Sharp overnight moves post-13F create technical dislocations and potential short-term mean reversion risk.
TSLA
4 price targets
335340338327
Bullish
Volatility cheap and long-dated options offer asymmetric upside if model/news catalysts materialize.
Bearish
Price action fragile; short-term lifeline concepts suggest limited conviction and risk of stops turning to resistance.
AAPL
4 price targets
225235230240
Bullish
Still constructive on a measured basis; event season (September) remains a catalyst for directional moves.
Bearish
Trading in a tight range — vulnerability if it breaks below the near-term support band (~230).
HOOD
3 price targets
114120125
Bullish
SR flip and multi-day balance support a measured recovery into the mid-120s if sustained.
Bearish
Rips and whipsaw intraday could trap traders; overhead supply remains a constraint.
LYFT
4 price targets
121617.520
Bullish
Strong bounce from low teens with clear low-volume pockets to run into; recovery path toward high teens plausible.
Bearish
Low-priced volatility and headline sensitivity could lead to quick reversals.
TTD
3 price targets
535657
Bullish
Reclaim above ~53 turned a failed breakdown into a liquidity-sweep long setup with immediate targets into mid-50s.
Bearish
Earlier breakdown risk existed; failure to reclaim higher levels could resume downside.
DIS
2 price targets
85120
Bullish
New service launches could stabilize revenues; successful adoption would support a rebound from current levels.
Bearish
Trading range extended; price action suggests risk back toward the low end (85) without clear positive catalyst.
People mentioned
JacobTroyEvanAmitJagWarren BuffettJerome PowellMichelle BowmanChristopher WallerRaphael BosticVolodymyr ZelenskyySarah FriarJasonCleo