Paper Gains
Jackson Hole Week [LIVE]
8/18/2025, 6:45:54 PM
Economic Summary
- Jackson Hole week (Fed speeches, FOMC minutes) concentrates policy commentary Wednesday–Friday, making market reactions to Fed rhetoric more important than usual.
- PPI surprised materially versus expectations, creating market volatility and prompting deeper digging into services-driven producer inflation dynamics.
- Semiconductor sector faces layered risks: headlines about potential high tariffs and company-specific post-earnings weakness (AMAT) could stall the group until NVDA earnings.
- 13F season caused notable flows (Warren Buffett buying UNH), which can change sector sentiment quickly and influence short-term market leadership.
- Seasonality notes: August is a coin-flip month with historically increased choppiness into September; watch price action rather than calendar assumptions.
Bullish
- Buffett and other 13F buying (e.g., UNH) can shift sentiment and lift sector leadership.
- If NVIDIA (NVDA) reports strong earnings, it could re-ignite tech-led market rally.
- Some names reclaiming monthly/quarterly structure (UNH, TTD) suggest durable technical turnarounds.
- Equal-weight strength (RSP) would indicate rotation into broad market participation, supporting gains.
Bearish
- Jackson Hole/Fed speeches this week increase policy risk and can trigger sharp volatility or a choppy reversal.
- Semiconductor risks: possible tariffs (headline of up to 300%) plus AMAT post-earnings weakness could drag the whole semi complex.
- Geopolitical headlines (Russia–Ukraine) and defense/oil moves can produce sudden headline-driven selloffs in related names.
- Index technicals: as long as SPY stays below the pre-market high (~644), bears have the near-term edge.
Bullish tickers
UNHNVDAAAPLMSFTKLAC
Bearish tickers
AMATAMDTSLABADIS
NVDA
2 price targets
181191
Bullish
Strong earnings could rescue the market and send NVDA higher into the next resistance band above 191.
Bearish
Stuck in a multi-day balance; failure to close over key levels would invite pre-earnings hedging and downside risk.
TSLA
4 price targets
335338340327
Bullish
Holding above the clarified lifeline (mid-330s) would keep the near-term recovery narrative intact.
Bearish
Trade is on edge; failing to hold lifeline levels below ~327 would invalidate the short-term bullish setup.
AMAT
Bullish
If AMAT stabilizes, it would remove a headwind for the semiconductor reflation thesis.
Bearish
Post-earnings dump could act as a sector-wide drag and justify a pause across tooling and semi suppliers.
AMD
1 price targets
185
Bullish
Product lineup strength could justify upside once knee-jerk rotation and volatility settle.
Bearish
Prior overnight pop to ~$185 felt overheated and then faded, signaling short-term mean reversion risk.
UNH
2 price targets
325425
Bullish
Large buys (Buffett/13F flows) and reclaiming monthly structure point to a sustained bullish setup into the 400s if momentum holds.
Bearish
If sentiment reverses or technicals fail, a retreat beneath the reclaimed monthly lows would pressure the name.
TTD
2 price targets
5357
Bullish
Holding above ~53 with a push toward 56–57 signals a failed breakdown and near-term bullish continuation.
Bearish
Could revisit prior breakdowns if it fails to hold the new above-53 level.
AAPL
2 price targets
225235
Bullish
Closing decisively above ~235 would clear the next short-term runway for further upside.
Bearish
Inside-week action and consolidation warns against pressing longs ahead of events; downside below 230 would target 225.
MSTR
1 price targets
360.03
Bullish
If BTC stabilizes, MSTR could re-capture recent highs and resume upside.
Bearish
Bitcoin weakness and weekly lows near prior support put MicroStrategy at risk of further downside without crypto strength.
LYFT
2 price targets
16.517.5
Bullish
Reclaiming the prior monthly high set a pathway toward the mid-teens next resistance bands (≈$16.50–$17.50).
Bearish
Still a long road to clear large-range resistance; a failure under the recent reclaim levels would reverse gains.
People mentioned
JacobTroyMuhammadEvanAmitSteveJagJasonCarlVladMiss CleoWarren BuffettDonald TrumpJerome PowellMichelle BowmanChristopher WallerSarah FriarJensen HuangRaphael Bostic