Paper Gains
NVDA Earnings Week
8/25/2025, 8:50:49 PM
Economic Summary
- Jackson Hole comments from Jerome Powell were dovish and flipped market sentiment, raising expectations for future Fed rate cuts and driving a large intraweek rally (impacts NVDA, tech leadership).
- Fed minutes show FOMC members view inflation as the primary risk but the policy focus is shifting toward the labor market; employment data and jobless claims now carry increased weight for rate expectations.
- Market pricing (Polymarket) implies a high probability (>80%) of at least one rate cut by year-end, with October showing roughly 50/50 odds of change; the two-year rate is the Fed’s primary control, not long-term bonds (TLT).
- PCE (Friday core PCE) is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; a surprise upside in PCE (possibly fed by recent PPI strength) would likely reverse the dovish market reaction and be market-moving.
Bullish
- NVIDIA earnings could spark a market rally and remain the focal bullish catalyst (NVDA).
- Home Depot showed resilient price action despite misses, signaling possible retail strength (HD).
- Tesla is constructive if it holds above ~338 — bullish continuation possible (TSLA).
- Rivian viewed as a potential generational buy if it holds low levels (RIVN).
- Regional banks (KRE) could rebound if duration/duration-risk stress eases.
Bearish
- TLT (long 20+ year bonds) is not controlled by the Fed and is a risky long for rate-cut trades.
- Walmart missed earnings and showed weak price action, signaling downside pressure for retailers (WMT).
- Snapchat lacks convincing leadership and a durable moat — ‘hard pass’ on SNAP as an investment.
- Short-term stop-hunt risk and near-term breakdowns for names like Roblox and Celsius (RBLX, CEL).
- Buying at resistance in a market transition is risky; late Friday buyers may become sell liquidity.
Bullish tickers
NVDAHDTSLARIVNKREAAPL
Bearish tickers
TLTWMTSNAPRBLXCELAMD
NVDA
Bullish
NVIDIA earnings are the key midweek catalyst that could drive a broad market rally.
Bearish
Earnings could disappoint relative to lofty expectations, dragging AI-related names.
TLT
Bullish
Could rally if long-term rates fall, but not the Fed’s direct instrument.
Bearish
Long TLT is not a direct Fed trade — long 20+ year bonds are market-driven and risky relative to Fed control.
WMT
Bullish
None presented — current tone is cautionary after the miss.
Bearish
Walmart missed and showed continued downside price action, dragging retail peers (WMT).
HD
Bullish
Despite misses, HD was bought back intraday and displayed constructive price action.
Bearish
Home Depot also missed fundamentals though price action has been resilient, so execution risk remains.
TSLA
2 price targets
338366
Bullish
Constructive technicals if it holds ~338; breakout over mid-360s would signal stronger expansion.
Bearish
Still in a sideways consolidation; failure to break higher risks further chop.
RIVN
3 price targets
1320100
Bullish
Viewed as a potential generational buy if it holds low levels (buy below mid-teens).
Bearish
High-beta speculative name; large upside is lower probability and depends on leadership/execution.
KRE
Bullish
Could see a sharp recovery if duration-risk pressures abate and backers show support.
Bearish
Regional banks remain sensitive to duration and deposit stress; downside if duration risk persists.
AAPL
3 price targets
213225230
Bullish
Historic run-up into an iPhone event could create a short-term bullish trade ahead of invites/announcements.
Bearish
No significant AI premium priced in; near-term event risk and not yet in a confirmed breakout.
SNAP
Bullish
None presented — skeptical view prevails.
Bearish
Leadership and monetization concerns; execution risk makes SNAP a 'hard pass' currently.
RBLX
2 price targets
5857
Bullish
May base later after near-term flush, but risky in current setup.
Bearish
Near-term stop-hunt and waterfall risk; break below ~59 can trigger rapid downside.
CEL
2 price targets
5957
Bullish
None presented in this transcript.
Bearish
Short near-term view; likely to fill down into high-50s as stops trigger (CEL).
AMD
Bullish
Longer-term AI exposure remains, but NVDA is preferred this week.
Bearish
Weakness partly due to this week's NVIDIA focus; AMD may underperform NVDA in short term.
LYFT
1 price targets
21
Bullish
Technical breakout above ~21 would signal an out-of-weeds recovery and larger move.
Bearish
Requires leadership/financing clarity; susceptible to rates and funding pressures.
PLTR
1 price targets
160
Bullish
Has recovered sharply at times; buy-the-dip mentality still alive for selective names.
Bearish
Trading range and resistance overhead; not out of the weeds until structural breakout.
People mentioned
AmitEvanJerome PowellDonald TrumpMark GurmanLarry KolbKevinJasonTroyAvaOscarJacobAshPatrickRJ