Paper Gains
Overheated Too Far Too Fast
8/4/2025, 7:49:57 PM
Economic Summary
- FOMC: Two dissenters (Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller) wanted rate cuts — first double dissent in 32 years — signaling some Fed internal debate about policy direction and adding uncertainty to rate expectations.
- Q2 GDP printed 3.0% versus a 2.5% consensus (and well above prior), while the GDP price index cooled; overall prints were close to consensus so market reaction was muted relative to headline change.
- Powell said the economy is in a 'solid position' but remains data-dependent; he wants at least two months of inflation and employment data before September, emphasizing labor risks and delaying premature easing expectations.
- PCE and other inflation readings came in roughly as expected, so no big surprise to markets; nonfarm payrolls and BLS revisions created additional noise and trader uncertainty.
- Macro calendar light this week but earnings are heavy (roughly ~1,700 companies reporting), so near-term market moves will be dominated by company earnings and headlines rather than new macro data.
Bullish
- Most large tech (MAG7) reported beats, supporting FAANG/mega-cap strength.
- AI/semiconductor names like AMD/NVDA retain structural upside despite volatility.
- Earnings-heavy week could produce stock-specific rallies and tradable moves.
Bearish
- Headline-driven whipsaw market increases volatility and risk of overnight gaps.
- Amazon showed weakness pre-earnings with insider selling, pressure on AMZN.
- Health-care sentiment weak after UNH miss and pharma executive actions risk.
- Crypto faces heavy overhead resistance and institutional crypto-treasury risks (BTC).
Bullish tickers
AMDNVDAAAPLMSFTGOOGLMETA
Bearish tickers
AMZNUNHLCIDBTC
AMZN
2 price targets
210201
Bullish
Still a mega-cap with long-term revenue engines; could bounce if fundamentals beat and market risk-on resumes.
Bearish
Insider selling ahead of earnings and a weaker report pressure the stock; speaker trimmed shorts but sees further downside risk.
AAPL
Bullish
Supply diversification to India has increased smartphone shipments from India, which supports resilience if tariffs don’t escalate.
Bearish
Tariff rhetoric targeting India could disrupt Apple’s growing production footprint in India and hit sentiment.
AMD
3 price targets
170145135
Bullish
Core story intact with strong demand; recent earnings pushed price up and it remains a buy-the-dip candidate near mid-100s to 140s.
Bearish
Macro change could push a pullback into the 145–135 area; earnings volatility could trigger big moves.
SMCI
1 price targets
60
Bullish
Management momentum and post-earnings upside were targets; a 60 upside target was noted by the speaker.
Bearish
Large move already priced in; chasing now is risky after strong run.
AFRM
1 price targets
79
Bullish
Shows technical setups and can run into earnings cycles; upside around $79 noted as potential target.
Bearish
Hard to chase on momentum spikes; susceptible to earnings season rotation.
ZETA
1 price targets
16.2
Bullish
Speaker bought ZETA around $16.20, citing strong digital ad demand and hopeful next quarters.
Bearish
High cyclicality in digital marketing spend could hit ZETA on a slowdown.
RIVN
Bullish
Closer to profitability than before; seen as a de-risked, longer-term flyer by the host.
Bearish
Stock hasn’t reflected improving fundamentals yet; speculative and volatile.
LCID
Bearish
Speaker believes Lucid is at bankruptcy risk based on runway and fundamentals.
PLTR
Bullish
Palantir is a high-interest name into earnings with potential upside if execution shows progress.
Bearish
Earnings can be binary and lead to large post-report moves; risk of disappointment.
MSFT
Bullish
Beat recently and is part of the cohort of big tech that helped lead the rally.
Bearish
Macro-driven downturn could pressure shares, but no specific downside call made.
GOOGL
Bullish
Reported strong results and quickly recovered; remains a core big-tech beneficiary.
Bearish
Ad spend cyclicality could weigh; comparisons may create volatility.
META
Bullish
Strong beat and large recovery, one of the top performers in the recent reporting cycle.
Bearish
High valuation could be punished if ad growth slows.
NVDA
Bullish
AI/semiconductor demand keeps structural upside; compared favorably to peers in run-ups.
Bearish
Extremely high expectations could lead to sharp pullbacks on any disappointment.
UNH
Bearish
Missed expectations, contributing to bearish health-care sentiment.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpJerome PowellJeff BezosMichelle BowmanChristopher WallerEvanMiss CleoKugler