Paper Gains
Tariff Turmoil
2/11/2025, 6:50:38 AM
Economic Summary
- CPI is the big data event midweek; market expects a slightly hotter print month-over-month, and a hotter-than-expected reading would likely cause risk-off action while a softer print could spark a rally.
- Two days of Fed testimony (Powell) are scheduled but are viewed as unlikely to move markets materially versus the CPI print; expect some chop around remarks.
- Index technicals: as long as SPY holds its key support level (discussed as ~600), the presenter stays neutral-to-bullish; a break below that support would shift bias toward pullbacks.
- Dividends and ex-dates (e.g., XOM, ASML referenced) and earnings/updates (Astera/Estera group, NVDA gap) are near-term catalysts that could produce outsized moves for individual names.
Bullish
- Holding key index support keeps overall bias neutral-to-bullish.
- Tesla breakout retest is a buy setup for a multi-week leg higher.
- NVIDIA reclaiming its 200-day SMA suggests further upside continuation.
- SMCI and several cohort names are staging strong post-dive rebounds.
Bearish
- Hot CPI print could trigger a midweek market selloff and gap downs.
- Deep-seek dive allegations may pressure semiconductor names if guidance is cut.
- Stocks with weak fundamentals or large recent runs risk sharp pullbacks (e.g., ELF).
Bullish tickers
TSLANVDASMCIAMZNSHOP
Bearish tickers
ELFALABSMCI
TSLA
4 price targets
370340320270
Bullish
Weekly breakout-pullback setup; presenter is buying equities in the sub-380 area expecting a multi-week leg higher.
Bearish
A failure to hold the weekly support and volume shelf in the mid-300s risks another leg down.
NVDA
1 price targets
142
Bullish
Reclaimed the 200-day SMA and a gap-fill target (around 142) could fuel further upside.
Bearish
A negative post-earnings reaction or failure to reclaim key zones could leave a gap unfilled.
SMCI
2 price targets
4570
Bullish
Strong post-earnings bounce; reclaiming retracement levels points to further upside toward mid-range targets.
Bearish
If accounting or guidance problems surface, gains could reverse quickly despite the bounce.
ALAB
1 price targets
80
Bullish
Presenter bought LEAPS and sees the upcoming results as a big tell; a clean print could accelerate recovery.
Bearish
Earnings could 'shellack' the name if deep-dive allegations prove true, prompting sharp downside.
AMZN
3 price targets
230240250
Bullish
Cloud leadership and improving technical structure make Amazon a preferred long among mega-caps; holding ~230 is constructive.
Bearish
Failure to reclaim the 20-day and near-term support could stall recovery.
SPY
2 price targets
600615
Bullish
Holding the 600-level support keeps the presenter neutral-to-bullish and would open up a path toward higher weekly ranges.
Bearish
A decisive break below the 600 support/20-50 day area would flip the market tone to bearish.
QQQ
2 price targets
532546
Bullish
As long as QQQ holds its moving average box, press the upside bias; reclaiming highs would favor longs.
Bearish
Below key Friday lows and moving averages, QQQ would face a meaningful short-term pullback.
XOM
1 price targets
115
Bullish
If post-dividend price holds support (~109–109.50 area), XOM likely reclaims the 200-day toward modest upside.
Bearish
Ex-dividend pullbacks and short-term chop could limit near-term upside.
PLTR
Bullish
Current consolidation suggests higher-lows are forming; trend appears constructive if support holds.
Bearish
Would retest lower levels if it fails to hold recent consolidation support.
ASML
Bullish
Early post-deep-dive report rip indicates cohort recovery potential if others follow ASML's positive print.
Bearish
Ex-dividend effects and option noise can create short-term volatility.
ELF
1 price targets
60
Bullish
Short-term bounce occurred, but presenter remains skeptical on longer-term fundamentals.
Bearish
Presenter views fundamentals as weak and calls current levels bottom-fishing; significant downside risk existed earlier.
SHOP
Bullish
Presenter is long SHOP equity and notes recent upgrade and positive momentum.
Bearish
Pre-earnings or re-rating risk could produce volatility.
HOOD
2 price targets
5055
Bullish
Presenter highlighted clear $50 support and believes strength above mid-50s keeps the uptrend intact.
Bearish
Highly volatile; break below ~$50 support would be concerning.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpJerome PowellMiss CleoJosephLuxJRHenry HawkinsColinArnieFraggleLuisMohammedDennyVladMuhammad